NFL Week 3: Packers vs Bengals Pick & Predictions

TSZEGOTW (The Spread Zone Early Game of the Week): Picks and Predictions for the Green Bay Packers vs the Cincinnati Bengals

Vegas opened the line even but heavy action on the Packers has moved it to Green Bay (-3), Over/Under 48.5.

By: MaChez, TSZ Expert

Now before you accuse me of favoritism in choosing the Packers game as The Spread Zone Early Game of the Week for the second straight week, know that you will only be partially correct.  The first criteria I look for is it being a game all the TSZ experts agree on because united we stand divided we fall, and I don’t want to look bad all by myself.  That left us with it SD/TEN or GB/CIN, and can you really blame me for choosing the Packers game?

   

Green Bay Packers

So let’s get to some actual analysis.  The Packers come in to this game 1-1 after an easy win last week against the Washington BadNames.  As usual Aaron Rodgers and the offense looked great.  Rodgers, James Starks, and James Jones all set personal records in yardage, the Packers had their first 100 yard rusher since 2010, and for the first time in NFL history a team had a 450-yard passer and 125-yard rusher in the same game.  Somewhat surprising though is that the Packers’ D has looked good as well.   The rushing D has turned in to a formidable front and looks nothing like the group that gave up a mile of rushing yards to Colin Kaepernick in last year’s playoffs, and although the pass D looked suspect against the 49ers, they improved significantly against Washington. Unfortunately Washington is a joke right now so none of this paragraph counts for much.

Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals came in to the year as the trendy-highly-ranked-team-you-wouldn’t-expect-to-be-highly-ranked and their roster shows why.  Somehow Marvin Lewis avoided being fired and has now turned this team in to a repeat playoff team with an absolutely loaded depth chart.  AJ Green is one of the best receivers in the game and complimented by a running back tandem of BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Giovani Bernard.  On the other side of the ball they have one of the better defensive lines that includes Geno Atkins and Michael Johnson.  The one real question mark on this team is Andy Dalton as he kind of teeters on the line between game manager and good quarterback.  So far the Bengals have lost a heartbreaker to the Bears on the road in Week 1 but rebounded at home on Monday night against the tanking Pittsburgh Steelers.

The Spread

One thing working in the Packers’ favor is that for the second game in a row they get to face a team coming off a short week after a Monday Night division rivalry game.  Handicappers quickly realized this and turned a line that started out even to a Green Bay (-3).

The Bengals’ line is what should pose the toughest challenge for Green Bay covering and the interior offensive linemen will need to step up their game to keep Rodgers on his feet.  They held up reasonably well against the 49ers but gave up several costly sacks at the beginning of Week 2.  The Bengals’ secondary is good too, but not good enough to stop Rodgers and Co. from putting up 28+ if he stays standing.  San Francisco couldn’t even do it.  There are just too many receivers to cover, not to mention how much harder it gets with another decent game from James Starks. 

If the Bengals are going to keep up with the Packers offense, they are going to need Andy Dalton to perform better than he has been as Clay Matthews and the rest of the front seven will force him to throw like they did with Kaepernick and RGIII.  He has crazy amount of talent around him and will need to take advantage of it with a better deep ball. Helping him is the Packers still questionable secondary who should be without ball hawks Morgan Burnett and Casey Hayward yet again.

Both these teams are pretty loaded with talent, but what this really comes down to is quarterbacks.  And in a shootout between Aaron Rodgers and Andy Dalton, I’m always choosing the one with a soul.  I’d like to say expect him to have a big day this weekend, but at this point that’s like saying expect Aaron Hernandez to be in jail tomorrow or expect Dexter to end on Sunday.  Give up the points but take the OVER. Packers win 34-27.

Prediction: Green Bay Packers (-3) over CINCINATTI BENGALS

                     OVER 48.5                

Expert Team: 6-0 Green Bay to cover

Official SpreadZone Pick: Green Bay Packers (-3) over CINCINATTI BENGALS, UNDER

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