NFC East Preview and Predictions

AFC East: A Breakdown Before Kickoff Week 1

By: Laura Zvaleuskas

The AFC East is not only one of the least exciting divisions in the National Football League but also hosts teams with the most question marks.  This year, we will witness the New England Patriots question how their offense will operate with five new starting receivers, how the Buffalo Bills will fair with their newly drafted “franchise quarterback,” how the Miami Dolphins will develop with their second year quarterback and newly-acquired, expensive free agent Michael Wallace, and how the New York Jets will attempt to formulate a new attack under new offensive coordinator Marty Morhinweg while attempting to find a capable quarterback to lead them through the season.

Buffalo Bills 

Vegas Over/Under Total Wins: 6.5

Laura’s 2013 Prediction: 5 – 11

The Buffalo Bills will finish in last place due to an inability to secure the tiebreaker with the Jets.  The Bills finished last year with a 6 – 10 record, and many of the question marks for the Bills this season surround the quarterback position.  Harvard graduate Ryan Fitzpatrick was let go by the Buffalo's administration; Fitzpatrick is currently sitting backup to Jake Locker in Tennessee.  They utilized the 2013 first round draft pick hoping to find their Andrew Luck or Russell Wilson in former Florida State standout E.J. Manuel.  During the off-season, the Bills signed Kevin Kolb as a veteran presence to compete for the starting job in 2013 and push E.J. Manuel.  

Unfortunately, both Manuel and Kolb suffered injuries during the preseason.  Kevin Kolb sustained a bad concussion, which may have ended his career, so he is no longer a factor in the Bills quarterback competition.  Manuel had a knee injury and required having his knee scoped.  At the time of publication, Manuel was back in practice and eagerly wants to start for the team next week.  The other viable quarterback on the roster is rookie Jeff Tuel who may still start if Manuel cannot go on Sunday. (Fantasy Note: Get the New England defense for week 1 against this questionable Buffalo Bill quarterback situation.)

The shining star on Buffalo’s offense is C.J. Spiller.  C.J. Spiller emerged as an unstoppable speed demon last year, who shared carries with veteran Fred Jackson.  C.J. Spiller may have a strong year, but my concern lies in the fact that he has never played a full year with a full workload – durability is certainly a concern.  Overall, Buffalo has a tough schedule and will struggle to find its quarterback identity early in the season.  Buffalo will fall UNDER the Vegas projected wins for the year.

New York Jets

Vegas Over/Under Total Wins: 6.5

Laura’s 2013 Prediction: 5 – 11

The New York Jets are coming into the season with more questions than answers.  Last year, the Jets missed the playoffs again and the fan base is not happy with what they see.  There were several changes in the organization that started at the top.  The firing of Mike Tannenbaum was a complete necessity; especially considering the contract mess the Jets are in because of deals with Mark Sanchez and Santonio Holmes that put the Jets over the salary cap.  John Idzik debuted as the new general manager of the Jets and is tasked with rebuilding the team.  

Another personnel move included hiring offensive coordinator Marty Mornhinweg who brought the west coast style offense to the New York Jets this season.  This is a stark contrast to the run first offense operated by Tony Sparano (who is more of an offensive line coach than an offensive coordinator).  The Jets further addressed their offense by drafting Geno Smith in the second round of the draft to “compete” with Mark Sanchez.  Mark Sanchez had an absolutely awful year and was benched at the end of the season.  His abilities as a professional quarterback have continually regressed.  Due to Mike Tannenbum’s incompetence, Sanchez is virtually “un-cuttable” with an 8.5 million guaranteed salary.  Tannenbaum guaranteed the salary after Woody Johnson brought in a guy named Tim Tebow.  The Jet’s administration thought it was a good idea to resign Sanchez with guaranteed money in order to soothe Sanchez’s ego and uneasiness felt by the signing of the Heisman Winning Gator.  At the end of the 2012 season, Tim Tebow attempted less passes than remaining episodes of the hit TV series, Breaking Bad.  At the start of the 2013 season, the Jets quarterbacks include: Mark Sanchez, Geno Smith (second round draftee), Matt Simms (beat out Greg McElroy for third string job due to McElroy knee injury), and Graham Harrell (temporary camp body).

The quarterback dilemma is far from over and this is the biggest question mark for the organization.  As it stands right now, Geno Smith will lead the Jets into Game 1 of the NFL 2013 season against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (attention all fantasy players – play the Tampa Bay defense Week 1 – Darelle Revis is pumped to play his rivals).  In other aspects of the offense, Shonn Greene left the team to play with Chris Johnson on the Titans.  The Jets signed veteran running backs Chris Ivory and Mike Goodson.  Chris Ivory is a little rusty off of a hamstring problem in camp, but should be extremely promising as the season gets underway.  Mike Goodson was arrested in Denville, New Jersey and did not attend training camp.  He is back at the team facilities and his return date will be based upon his suspension from the league and ability to compete on the depth chart when eligible.

On the other side of the ball, there changes to the roster to increase more salary cap space and make the team younger.  Idzik cut linebackers Calbin Pace and Bart Scott.  Idzik also cut Sione Pouha.  Idzik restricted the contract with Antonio Cromartie to give the team more wiggle room.  The Jets drafted incredible defensive talent in Dee Millner and Shelton Richardson (both first round picks, who can make an immediate impact on the offense).  

Overall, the Jets are going to be in rebuilding mode for this year, which contradicts Rex Ryan’s goals as a coach in order to preserve his spot in the administration of the team.  Despite the quarterback deficiency, the Jets will tough out a few wins based on the running game and the remarkable defense.  Ultimately, the Jets will fall UNDER the Vegas projected wins total.

Miami Dolphins 

Vegas Over/Under Total Wins: 8

Laura’s 2013 Prediction: 7 – 9

The Miami Dolphins had an abysmal start to the 2012 campaign with a record of 1 – 4.  Most of this can be attributed to the growing pains experienced by new franchise quarterback, Ryan Tannehill. The Dolphins would then win three straight to improve their record to 4 – 4 by the middle of the season and by seasons end, the Dolphins were 7 – 9.  

During the off-season, the Dolphins made impressive moves to their defenses with the addition at linebacker of Dannell Ellerbe, Phillip Wheeler and addition at secondary with the signing of Brent Grimes.  The Dolphins addressed their offense as well; specifically, the Dolphins administration wanted to surround Tannehill with talent to throw to.  They started by resigning Brian Hartline, who throughout the 2012 campaign acted as a safety blanket for the rookie quarterback, and the Dolphins were able to do that at great value.  They continued by acquiring Dustin Kellar in free agency from their division rival: the Jets.  This move was primarily motivated by the departure of Anthony Fasano.  Dustin Kellar, who dealt with injury in the past few seasons with the Jets, displayed great talent while on the field, and remarkably was able to allow Mark Sanchez to look like a somewhat professional caliber quarterback.  Unfortunately, Dustin Kellar suffered an extremely devastating ACL, PCL injury in the preseason that will prohibit him from playing in 2013.  

Another great signing at wide receiver was Brandon Gibson.  Gibson will act as a great third receiver who will benefit from the coverage on Hartline and Wallace.  This was an excellent pickup for the team and a reliable tool for Tannehill to utilize throughout the season.  The biggest signing in Miami this year was the signing of extremely speedy Mike Wallace.  Mike Wallace is an incredibly talented player, but throughout the OTAs and preseason it is clear that there is still more time needed for Tannehill and Wallace to get on the same page.  This relationship will evolve eventually, but will cause more early season growing pains for the Dolphins.

In terms of the running game, the Dolphins let Reggie Bush go in favor of young running backs all ready on the roster.  The primary candidate for the starting job is Lamar Miller.  Lamar Miller showed great promise last year and should be a great push for the Dolphins offense.  Daniel Thomas, the second in line running back, will get his share of carries and continue to push Miller.  Overall, the Dolphins will repeat the same type of performance this year – they need one more year of development before they can break into serious contention.  Miami will fall UNDER the total projected wins.

New England Patriots 

Vegas Over/Under Total Wins: 10.5

Laura’s 2013 Predictions: 11 – 5 

The New England Patriots had a strong 2012 season (Regular season record 12 – 4) that resulted in an AFC championship loss to the eventual Super Bowl champion Baltimore Ravens.  Bill Belichick addressed obvious defensive needs in the draft by adding OLB Jamie Collins, CB Logan Ryan, and S Duron Harmon.  During the off-season, Tom Brady extended his contract at an affordable price to ensure that the Patriots as a whole would improve talent wise.  Unfortunately for Brady, five of his most targeted weapons in the 2012 season will not start (or be on the team) for Game 1 of 2013. 

 

Rob Gronkowski, Brady’s favorite tight end, has struggled with several surgeries with is forearm and his back – Rob is questionable for week 1 (as of September 2nd, Gronk just started practicing and should be back around Week 2 – 6 (another alert to all you fantasy players out there!).  Aaron Hernandez, the second tight end that made Bill Bellichick’s two tight end receiving set so famous (watch the Bengals mirror that strategy this season with their new toy, Eifert), is currently in jail awaiting trial for several charges surrounding the murder of semi – pro football player Odin Lloyd.  The ever-reliable Wes Welker rejected an offer to continue with his buddy Tom and the Patriots and instead accepted an offer with Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos.  After his departure, Welker voiced his feelings of appreciation from the Patriots organization, most notably Bill Bellichick.  The fourth target, Danny Woodhead, departed New England in free agency for an immediate back role on the San Diego Chargers behind Ryan Matthews.  Look for Woodhead to be the go to guy in San Diego on passing third downs.  Lastly, Brandon Lloyd was not resigned by the Patriots and is still unemployed for the 2013 NFL season.

The Patriots will start the season with many new faces on offense, and this leads to much uncertainty about repeating and/or outdoing their 2012 performance.  The Patriots will definitely rise to the challenge and overcome the adversity for a variety of reasons.  First of all, Tom Brady is arguably the number one quarterback in the NFL and has seasoned experience executing an offense with new talent.  Danny Amendola, known as a younger, cheaper, tougher Wes Welker, can compete to lead the NFL in receptions if he can stay healthy.  Undrafted free agents acquired this summer such as: Kenbrell Thomkins (WR), Aaron Dobson (WR), and Zach Sudfeld (TE) have shown throughout preseason that they can contribute to a potent, Tom Brady offense.  

Secondly, the New England Patriots have a dynamic run game that has evolved over the past few seasons.  Watch out for Steven Ridley and Shane Vereen to keep defenders guessing due to their ability to act as receivers and running backs in complex offense sets.  Thirdly, the New England Patriot defense got more talented.  A huge reason for a Patriot set back last season was the inefficiencies of the New England defense.  This group looked a lot stronger by the end of last season and more talent has been added through the draft.  New England will have great numbers week 1 against a questionable Buffalo Bills.  

Lastly, the AFC East division as a whole includes three other teams that have many questions marks and because of this the Patriots should be largely successful in division games.  The Patriots, barring any significant injuries, should be able to go OVER Vegas prediction of 10.5 wins.

Random side note for the Patriots: Tim Tebow was a Patriot throughout training camp, but he did not make the 53 man roster.  In all likelihood, Tebow’s NFL career is probably over unless he can change positions to increase more upside for a NFL Team.