Thursday Night Football Preview and Picks: Be a Patriot, Back the Jets

I hate politics. I vote because my wife would probably leave me for a real Democrat if I didn't. In fact, I've taken to absentee balloting and handing the paperwork over to her thereby making her twice as powerful as any other woman in the country - except of course a small subsect of Mormons which allows wives to have multiple husbands, generally sports-addicted ones with gambling problems. Those ladies are the real target demographic around election time.

That being said, I did find myself pausing during an epic channel surfing wave to watch President Obama address the nation regarding the crisis in Syria. Although I've never heard the words Syria and International sports empire in the same sentence, Obama's charisma and his message kept me interested long enough to hear him promise that we will not set boots on Syrian soil - that we will just be bombing the shit out of a specific target to send a message to Syrian dictator Assad. At the end of his speech, however, after assuring us all (plus Assad and the gang - sounds like a cool disco band) that the United States military "does not do pin pricks," he added that diplomatic efforts were going to be made prior to the aforementioned crap bombing.

Well, although US Jets might not do pin pricks when on the attack, the New York Jets do do (heh heh, I said dudu) pin pricks on offense, which is probably why they find themselves visiting New England this Thursday as 12.5 point underdogs. Is that too high? Is it too low? Is it too in between to salvage a push? Maybe, maybe, and yes are my definitive answers, but let's take a closer look at what many are calling a clear case of overvalued vs. undervalued in this AFC East match-up. 

The New York Jets came into the season a week ago as the team most likely to implode due to poor management, poor coaching, or intrusive, non-stop, partisan media coverage. Then they went started a rookie QB, played inspired defense, and pulled out an unlikely Week 1 victory over the visiting Tampa Bay Bucs as 3.5 home dogs. Go figure. New England, on the other hand, came into the season much like they always do as a top contender to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl 43. That's right, I don't use roman numerals. Then they went to Buffalo in Week 1 against a rookie QB, and sputtered their way to an ugly 23-21 victory as 10+ point favorites.

So, advantage who? Although we were initially reserving our Thursday pick for TSZ Insiders, those who have already signed up for this VIP package held a Cyber Meeting this morning and decided unanimously to share their Thursday and Monday picks with greater betting public. Our Friday Five, however, will still be the exclusive property of TSZ Insiders and any rebroadcasting or reproduction of those confidence picks without the express written consent of LJ, Archie, Nancy, Francis, Miles, Dr. Brennan, and the rest of the clan is strictly prohibited. And by "strictly prohibited" I mean probably happening all the time.

Can I get to the freakin' pick already? Sure I can. 

NEW YORK JETS (+11.5) over New England Patriots: The obvious bet here is to take the New England Patriots, and we learned through a lot of mistakes last week that obvious doesn't always work out this early in the year. Last season the Patriots manhandled the New York Jets on Thanksgiving Day 49-19 in New York. The Patriots are also 10-1 ATS after a division win, they still have Tom Brady and Bill Belichick. Did I mention I'm talking about the Patriots? Legendary coach against rookie QB? Blah, blah, blah. Enter "Week 2 Picks ATS Jets-Pats" into Google and you'll hear all of this ad nauseum.

What you won't hear is that American footballs aren't round. They're designed to take weird bounces and that's exactly what they do on short weeks in front of a national audience. What you won't hear is that with the exception of an anomalous 28-9 beat down in Buffalo at the end of 2012, the Jets haven't lost a road game by more than 9 points to a division rival since December of 2010. Sure that was at the hands of the Patriots 45-3, but that was different. 

It was on a Monday. 

This week's Patriots will still be without TE Rob Gronkowski, WR Danny Amendola is questionable as is RB Shane Vereen, and the New York Jets have the pride of a Weight Watchers success story in head coach Rex Ryan. One early special teams score, a defensive pick 6, or a Patriots fumble and this line suddenly becomes 18. This is not your 2011 Indianapolis Colts. Please, take the points, and take the UNDER 43, because although these two teams have hit the OVER in their last 7 meetings, the Jets will have to keep this a game of disappointing Red Zone visits in order to cover. Plus, the Pats defense was the only thing that looked good last week and don't you think Vegas knows the OVER has hit the past three years with the number set so low?

Patriots win 23-13

Expert Team: 2-2; with the tie-breaking vote withheld due to personal allegiance to the New York Jets. We know who you like, Laura. We're going to print. 

Vinny and Marco