Vegas is currently favoring the Atlanta Falcons (-2) at home.
Both the New England Patriots and the Atlanta Falcons finished one game shy of the Super Bowl last year, and both expect the opportunity for a do-over. During the preseason, this was a game players, coaches, and fans marked on their calendars, certain it would be a showdown of high-flying 3-0 teams. Fortunately for the New England Patriots, they've managed to escape two early ATS losses with SU W's, while the Atlanta Falcons are not only coming off a tough road loss to the young, upstart Dolphins, but are coming into the game a very disappointing 1-2 on the season.
The Atlanta Falcons come into Sunday night's showdown with an impressive 14-1 SU and 12-3 ATS record in their last 15 home games while the Patriots arrive as a tested road organization with a remarkable 16-4 SU and 13-5-2 ATS record over their last 20 road games. These are important stats to keep in mind when making your pick for this game. And by "important" I mean it may mean absolutely nothing, and by "keep in mind," I mean just keep it up there as clutter with all the other crap you're trying to sort through in that pre-Sunday, ADD gambling frenzy. I mean let's face it, when you have two stellar trends like this, something's got to give.
New England Patriots
The Patriots finally earned themselves an ATS win last week with an impressive 23-3 win over...drum roll please...the 0-3 disaster known as the Tampa Bay Bucs. Tom Brady's young receivers Kenbrall Thompkins and Aaron Dobson looked as though the extra rest, study time, and pine tar helped them haul in catches, making the historically stellar New England offense appear to be back. A source at the Boston Globe announced 15 hours ago that both Rob Gronkowski and Danny Amendola will play in Sunday's match-up, giving New England a tremendous boost on offense. Unfortunately, at the Atlanta Pagan Newsletter reported that she sees Gronk injuring himself in the first quarter and needing nine months and seventy-two surgeries to recover.
Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons are in trouble. Their receivers are banged up and they're already two games and a tie-breaker with the New Orleans Saints out of first place. Last year the Falcons didn't lose their second game until Week 14, while a loss to the Patriots would drop them to 1-3. The good news for Atlanta is that Matt Ryan is 34-5 at home in his career, and top receiver Julio Jones is leading the league in receiving yards. Running back Stephen Jackson is still out, but Jacquizz Rogers and Jason Snelling have been filling in nicely.
The Spread
This game is going to come down to defense. The Patriots have only been giving up 11 points/gamer thus far, but they've also only been playing teams with a combined record of 2-7. Meanwhile, the Falcons two losses have been at the hands of undefeated teams and the record of all the three teams they've faced is 7-3 because the Rams suck. Can anyone really see the Atlanta Falcons falling to 1-3 to start the year? Their defense will need to step up and we believe it will. Even with Gronk and Amendola back, the crowd noise in the dome will make the Patriots receivers revert to their Week 1/2 selves.
THE PICK: Falcons (-2) and the surprising UNDER 49 in a tight, defensive first half.
TSZ Expert Team: 5-1
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