NFL Week 3: ATS Picks & Predictions For All Sixteen Games

What's up everyone? It's 10:05 PM here on north coast of California and I just bet my Gambler's Anonymous sponsor $50 that I could get all of TSZ's NFL Week 3 ATS Picks and Predictions to go viral by midnight. Caught up in the moment, I immediately parlayed that wager with the assertion that I could also do it completely sober. I then lost the bet at 10:08, but will still make every effort to follow through on the initial self-imposed deadline. Bottoms up, cheers, and let's get down to some serious football handicapping.



And if you don't think I'm being serious, go to the Expert Picks Page at The Spread Zone, scroll down to our Season Record to date, and either soak in the seriousness of football handicapping or the seriousness that I do these write-ups whilst thoroughly intoxicated. I mean how many sober people let alone football handicappers do you know who:

A) Hyperlink you directly to the visual aid that shows they've started the 2013 NFL season at an embarrassing 29% ATS?

B) Correctly and somewhat poetically use the word whilst in a sentence?

C) Have the integrity to go into even more detail about just how bad it's been?



Speaking of which, if you're not completely discouraged by the depressing statistics on our Experts Page, please know that behind the scenes it gets even worse. Marco and I are embarrassed to announce that our beloved Friday Five which earned us our reputation last year with a 65% success rate has earned us a different kind of reputation this year with its 2-8 start to the season. Now before you get all trigger happy with that mouse and head back to Google for another "Week 3 NFL ATS Guaranteed Locks - Someone Who Hasn't Sucked This Year, Please" search, let me convince you that there is hope on the horizon and it's dressed up like this:

1. First of all, we do have a couple of experts at TSZ who are flirting with .500, which from everything I've been reading is not all that bad this year. Thank you Texas Todd. Thank You Kyle. Keep up the almost average work.

2. Secondly, we are now posting my animal communicating mother-in-law, Psychic Granny C's weekly picks to demonstrate just how hard/ridiculous/futile trying to keep up with the oddsmakers - especially early in the year - can be. A little background on Granny C: she has no football knowledge, translates animal energy communications to their owners, and correctly predicted that 2012 was going to be The Year of the Bird in the NFL. She also said to watch out for the Carolina Panthers and the Detroit Lions this year.



3. Along the same lines, according to my mother-in-law, there is an inverse psychic law which states that a person who is able to incorrectly predict the outcome of every game on the schedule has psychic abilities equally powerful to someone who gets them all right. The law of statistics says the same thing. So depending on your personal belief system, either Marco and I are a little bit psychic and just need to figure out which power we have or regression to the mean says we're in for a couple of really good weeks.

Whatever it may be, we'll take it and we're excited to do so. Here are The Spread Zone's NFL Week 3 Picks Against the Spread for every game. As usual, our picks will be bold and in bold, HOME teams will be in caps and are sometimes capitals, and we will always include the Expert's tally at the bottom.

Preseason Record: 29-19 ATS; 13-3 O/U - We now call this The Good Old Days

2013 ATS Record to Date: 9-22-1 - Inverted Psychic Powers? TBD

2013 Over/Under Record to Date: 23-9 - Regular Psychic Powers

Don't forget to check out our weekly FRIDAY FIVE CONFIDENCE PICKS. Get on our mailing list for a free preview: vinnyandmarco@thespreadzone.com

Let's do this.

Kansas City Chiefs (+3) over PHILADELPHIA EAGLES: There's been a lot of talk about on the Internet and even here at The Spread Zone about the speed of the Philadelphia Eagles offense, their PPM (points per minute of possession), their TOP (time of possession), and a few other TLAs(three letter acronyms) I can't be bothered to remember. What I do know is that their only win came against WAS with a rusty RG3 in the FGS (first game of the season).



The Chip Kelly offense is a microcosm of our American cultural climate. We want stuff and we want it now. Sometimes bigger, sometimes smaller, but always faster. I've seen people stand in front of microwaves at 7-11 looking exasperated by the fact their burritos going to take two minutes. The problem, however, is that evolution is much slower than revolution. We might live in spaceships next year, but our brains will still be riding bicycles.



What does all this nonsense mean? It means Michael Vick is going to get lit up by a slow, 300 pound bicycle, and it will probably happen before halftime. It also means we don't care if only 35% of road teams win Thursday night games, we don't care if the Chiefs win, we just care if they cover. I'll take Andy Reid on a bicycle any day, especially on a grudge-motivated homecoming day. Take the points and the UNDER 51.

Expert Team: 4-2 Chiefs


San Diego Chargers (+3.5) over TENNESSEE TITANS: These two teams have a lot in common - both are 2-0 ATS this year, both are 1-1 SU, and both are exceeding expectations with their .500 records. Last week Chargers head coach Mike McCoy showed the world how to clip the wings of the Philadelphia Eagles offense and the week before that the Titans announced themselves to the NFL 2013 party by embarrassing the Pittsburgh Steelers at home. The other weeks for both teams, however, were blown leads and embarrassing overtime losses to the Houston Texans. If the pattern continues, we like the last blown lead of the game to belong to the Tennessee Titans as Eddie Royal helps Vinny's fantasy football teams get its first win in the stupid PPR league he was duped into joining. Take the points and a surprising OVER 44.

Expert Team: 6-0 Chargers




MINNESOTA VIKINGS (-6) over Cleveland Browns: This line started with the Vikings as 3.5 point favorites and the action came roaring in on the home team pushing the line towards farther towards Minnesota. Then today the Browns traded Trent Richardson to the Indianapolis Colts and the line jumped again to almost a touchdown. Not to mention, Browns quarterback Brandon Weeden is out with a concussion and second stringer Jason Campbell has been passed over for the third string quarterback, Michigan State alum Brian Hoyer.


           "Seriously? The Colts? That's awesome."

Either way, we had the Vikings before the trade and we're liking them even more now. We don't see the line jumping higher than 7, but what I do know is that my Bovada account won't even accept bets on this game right now. If you can find the action or a really dumb friend or you're just filling out a grid - give up the points and watch an ugly 17-6 Vikings UNDER 41 win. 

Expert Team: 5-1 Vikings


NEW ENGLAND (-7) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers: We know the Patriots have failed to cover twice now against the Bills and the Jets, and I know that their receiving corp is either banged up or too inexperienced to understand the binary code Tom "The Robot" Brady keeps repeating in the huddles, but we have to believe that a Bill Belichick team with three extra days to iron things out can beat the University of Tampa Bay with all of their media-hyped inner-turmoil and their questionable quarterback situation. Will New England win this game? For sure they will. Will they win by a touchdown? We actually think it will be more like 11. Give up the TD and watch another low-scoring Patriots UNDER 44.5 win 27-13

Expert Team: 4-2 Patriots




BALTIMORE RAVENS (-2.5) over HOUSTON TEXANS: Prior to their Week 1 game against the San Diego Chargers, the Houston Texans held a players only meeting and voted to make 2013 "more interesting" by digging themselves a hole in the first half of every game before coming back to win them all in overtime. Unfortunately for the Texans, this type of self-handicapping only works against teams destined to meet in the We Just Missed the Playoffs Again Bowl and not the defending Super Bowl champions.


As a San Francisco Giants fan who had to watch both of his World Series championship squads begin their next season on the road, I can tell you that the Baltimore Ravens feel slighted by the NFL Scheduling Powers and are on a mission to let every team know that M & T Bank Stadium is deposit only. Get it? There will be no withdrawing wins. There's something really clever there - I just can't seem to find it right now. Take the home dog off a home win and the OVER 45, and try to ignore the fact that the Ravens are 1-3 ATS in their last four games as an underdog of under a field goal at home, because we are.

Expert Team: 4-2 Ravens


St Louis Rams (+4) over DALLAS COWBOYS: I have to speed this up a little or I'll never not lose the bet entirely. The Cowboys are barely above .500 at home - 9-11 in their last 20 games - and are 6-14 ATS in that span. Meanwhile, the Rams finally have weapons on offense, have a quarterback who's healthy, and have Jeff Fisher at the helm who had led them to cover 7 of 8 road games until losing by a half point in Atlanta last week. Dallas has better defense than the Falcons, but they just don't cover games at home. They get nervous playing in front JJ. Take the Rams, the points, the OVER 47, the possible win, and the ensuing Jason Garrett hot seat conversation.

Expert Team: 3-3



Arizona Cardinals (+7) over NEW ORLEANS SAINTS: The Saints are (not) who we thought they were. They're good, their defense is improved, they play well at home, but they're not the same team Vinny hoped they would be when he drafted Drew Brees in the first round of the aforementioned stupid PPR fantasy league. Meanwhile, the Cardinals are also not who we thought they were - they're better. At least their defense is. Their offense is also an improved threat with Carson Palmer behind center, and although Larry Fitzgerald is banged up, he insists he's going to play which means you can start planning your Back Door Cover party Cardinals fans. Too many points to turn down - even in the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Take the TD and the OVER 48.5.

Expert Team: 4-2 Saints




WASHINGTON REDSKINS (-2.5) over Detroit Lions: The Lions look awesome...at home. The Redskins look awesome...in the last sixteen minutes of games...on the road and at home. Advantage Washington. As our expert Kyle points out, the best bet here is Washington in the second half. This will be a shootout, and provided Reggie Bush is healthy the Lions will keep it close, but we have to give up the points and give the nod to the home team to win an OVER 49 game by a field goal. 

Expert Team: 4-2 Redskins



Green Bay Packers (-3) over CINCINNATI BENGALS: I believe this line started somewhere around Green Bay -1, then quickly moved towards the Packers where it has settled at -3. Cincinnati has a very good defense and has managed to keep very mediocre offenses in check during week 1 in Chicago and Monday night against the Steelers. The Packers have a very good offense and showcased it both weeks, although ultimately losing to San Francisco on the road to start the season. In our continued education post on Tuesday, I noted Dan Gordon's recommendation to bet against the Monday Night winner of a division game the following week. Enter Cincinnati, Monday night's winner against division rival Pittsburgh. We're embodying what we preach here at The Spread Zone, and the Packers are making it easy by being the Packers. Give up the points and watch an UNDER 48.5 performance by the offenses.

Expert Team: 6-0 Green Bay




CAROLINA PANTHERS (-1.5) over New York Giants: We're in the minority here - big time. Every single expert on our panel, including Year of the Cat predictor Psychic Granny C, has the New York winning and covering. Some people are citing the 36-7 drubbing the Giants gave the Panthers last year in Carolina on a Thursday Night, while others are just saying, "I can't believe the Giants are going to start 0-3. The Panthers sure, but they're used to it..."



Well, if you don't like the look of pouty little brothers gesticulating to no one in particular, twitch-shrugging their shoulder and looking exasperated after each of his four interceptions, then you might not want to watch this game. A WAY UNDER and WAY UGLY win for the Carolina Panthers defense.

Expert Team: 5-1 Giants


MIAMI DOLPHINS (-2) over Atlanta Falcons: Once again, we are on an island with our support of the Dolphins. Expert Texas Todd has been trying to convince us forever (two plus weeks) that the Dolphins are legit. Once we crossed over, turns out he took a boat to the mainland and joined the rest of the Atlanta Falcons backers.



Here's the thing, Ryan Tannehill isn't just a pretty girl's football playing husband anymore. He's not making the same mistakes he made last year, he has more offensive weapons, the Dolphins have the secondary to slow down the banged up Falcon receivers, and this is Miami's home opener. Miami is 2-0 for the first time since - probably 1972 - and their coming home as heroes. Sure they're veterans of wars in places like Cleveland and Indianapolis, but back in Miami they're still heroes. Give up the safety and feel safe with the Dolphins and the OVER 45.

Expert Team: 5-1 Falcons


SAN FRANCISCO FORTY NINERS (-10) over Indianapolis Colts: Dan Gordon, author of Beat the Sports Books and the inspiration behind our Continued Education for Gamblers series says you should always bet on a team who just suffered a "blow out" loss, which he defines as 21+ points. Last week that would have meant Baltimore and Jacksonville. As you know, it worked out for the Ravens - not so much for the Jags, but if I'm comparing apples and oranges, then the Niners and Ravens are like Fuji and Golden Delicious while the Jags are you typical Naval. Besides, Jim Harbaugh is the Michael Jordan of football - he finds reasons to hate his opposition. Andrew Luck once gave him an ambiguous-sounding compliment after a Pac 10 game, and Harbaugh still holds it against him.

   
"Oh, you like my hat do you? We'll see about that, Andrew."

The Niners will spend every minute of this game trying to erase the image of last Sunday's 29-6 loss to the Seahawks. Give up the ton of points and take the OVER 46.

Expert Team: 5-1 Niners


Jacksonville Jaguars (+19.5) over SEATTLE SEAHAWKS: I don't want to say Dan Gordon too many times, because I honestly have no idea what his reputation is in the handicapping world. When you self-publish do you also get to write all the amazing reviews on the back of the book and on Amazon? What I will do is refer you to our post about The Spread Range which explains in detail why we're saying, "This is too many points."


Coach/Former Motivational Speaker Gus Bradley: "Anyone who thinks we can't not lose by less than 21 points isn't welcome on this team.

The odds makers are MIT, Harvard, Princeton, child prodigies who were genetically engineered, raised in sports bars and casinos, and are all smarter than any of us. Their job is to find a number that is big enough to get some action on Jacksonville and small enough that Seattle won't cover for sure. It is not completely insane to take the points. One early pick six and it's a 26 point line. Take the points, the UNDER 41, and watch Seattle roll to a 24-7 win. Or listen to our team of experts, be a prisoner of the moment like the rest of the world, and take the obvious choice.

Expert Team: 5-1 Seattle


Buffalo Bills (+2.5) over NEW YORK JETS: This is an instance where you look at the teams, how they've played, their personel, their defenses, their offenses, their coaches, their quarterbacks, and you take the points. Both teams have played exceptional defense so far and both rookie quarterbacks have done just enough to earn them wins and 1-1 records. The difference is two-fold: EJ Manuel is better than Gino Smith, and the Buffalo Bills have more going for them on offense. That's why the Bills will improve to 3-0 ATS and likely 2-1 SU in an ugly UNDER 39 game.

Expert Team: 5-1





Chicago Bears (-2.5) over PITTSBURGH STEELERS: If you need a detailed explanation of why and how much the Steelers suck, Deadspin is always good for clinical analysis. We don't think the lack of an extra day of rest is going to help the Steelers suddenly get better. Sure their defense will keep them in the game, but Chicago's defense will quite literally keep their offense out of the game. This might be too good to be true, but we love the Bears but we have the feeling it's going to be an OVER 42.

Expert Team: 6-0




Oakland Raiders (-14.5) over DENVER BRONCOS: Wednesday morning Peyton Manning received a phone call from Sandra Bullock offering her condolences and saying that she was available if he wanted to write a screen play. The loss of Broncos left tackle Ryan Clady to a season-ending foot injury was devastating enough to be the lead on Sports Center but not quite devastating enough to script TBS2: The Blinder Side. Sorry Sandra. If there's one thing the Raiders can do right - and there might be only one thing - it's pressure the quarterback. It might be just enough to turn this game from a 20 point blowout to a 13 point cliffhanger. We're taking the points on the big, Monday Night stage where the Raiders shout to the world, "Now we're a field goal and 13 points away from being undefeated, bitches." 

Expert Team: 5-1 Broncos


 "See the scoreboard, Peyton? That's only 11, buddy."

So, when the Panthers, Dolphins, Jags, and Raiders all win or cover we should be able to say once and for all that we're not any kind of psychic. Here's hoping we see .500. Did I mention our OVER/UNDERS are 23-9. Notice how I never mentioned regression to the mean after numbers like that?

Thanks for reading, everyone. Be sure to come back tomorrow to read more about our Friday Five and the upcoming Reader Comment contest. Start training by commenting now...

Vinny and Marco