NFL Picks Week 1: MNF Giants vs Lions ATS

I know, it's only Monday and I'm back at the keyboard. What did we learn yesterday? Too much to squeeze into a five minute post before I head to my real job, but let's just say Marco and I didn't forget how to pull pieces of paper out of a hat. To be fair, picking NFL games before Week 5 is why we call gambling "expensive guessing," and even Tiger Woods would love shoot par these days, so a chance at a 3-2 week with the Chargers tonight feels like a win.



What feels even more like a win was the influx of e-mails from readers such as Jeff, Dan, John, Tony, and of course Manny the Great. I'm hoping Dally is still around to see that we picked his Cowboys yesterday, and I'm really hoping my former coastal neighbor Bobby is hear to watch the baseball Gaints come back and win the National League West this month. I'm sorry I missed you in Anderson Valley, buddy, but North Carolina was kind of like a nicer, richer, giant (even more historic) Boonville.

The reason I'm writing today is because I wanted to share some stats about tonight's games to explain why we're backing both underdogs. First of all, it's Week 1 which is every team's Super Bowl. Secondly, sometimes there are compelling stats that you have to buck or follow in order to win. Here's why we like the Chargers and the Giants plus the points.

*Don't forget to check out our friends at 1Vice. Just click on the link to the right. If you're on a losing streak or picked football like we did last year, you'll love their 40% gambler's insurance in September. Get back 40% of what your net losses if you call them on October first. That'll feel better when you pick the Lions or the Cardinals tonight.

Giants @ Lions–Giants started 0-1 last three years; they’re lost three of last
four road openers, with 12 of last 14 going over total. Detroit lost six of last seven
games last year, one of which was 23-20 (-9) Week 16 debacle to Giants; Big
Blue’s two TD’s were on 49-yard drive and defensive score. The Lions out rushed
them 148-41, still lost; that doesn’t happen a lot. Big Blue won last three series
games by total of 17 points; they won last five visits to Motor City. Lions have
new coaches, Giants have new offense that struggled to gel in preseason. Lions
won last three home openers, scoring 36.3 ppg; they’re 7-1-1 vs spread in last
nine HO’s, with last four going over total. Last three years, Giants are 11-6 as
road underdogs.

*That was a lot of stolen information, but we're bucking the 7-1-1 Lions and 
following the 11-6 underdog Giants. Take the points in Motor City. 

Chargers @ Cardinals-- San Diego is 9-3 in last dozen series games, winning
last three by 8-7-31 points; they won three of four visits here, but haven’t been
in desert since ’02, before dome opened. Chargers are 8-3-1 as road underdogs
last two years; they covered three of four vs. NFC LY, after being 0-8 previous
two seasons. Bolts won four of last five Week 1 road openers; five of their last
seven road openers went over total. Cardinals were 5-1-1 as favorites in Arians’
first year, after covering only five of previous 20 games when favored. Arizona
won six of last seven home openers (5-2 vs. spread); they‘re 6-1-1 vs. spread
in Week 1 last eight years. 

*If Arizona were the home dog, we'd back them - but in this case we're taking the
second year offense of coach McCoy and company. Take the points with the Bolts.

May the Spreads Be With You,

Vinny and Marco

NFL Picks Week 12: Saints vs Falcons ATS, Predictions, Thrursday Night Football

NFL Picks Week 12: Saints vs Falcons ATS, Predictions, Thrursday Night Football

The Saints are eight point road favorites as the travel to Atlanta to face the Falcons.

By: MaChez, TSZ Expert Writer

Only 12 weeks ago, tonight’s NFC South showdown between the Saints and Falcons would have been considered one of the best games of the season (it’s already Week 12?!).  But, the Falcons are one of those teams we get every year, those great teams from the year before that completely ish the bed for no reason.  The Saints on the other hand are on a mission after coach Sean Payton’s year-long ban from the league and are only one game out of the #1 spot in the NFC. The resurgent Panthers are right on their tails though so they can’t slip up from here on out.

The Spread

Due to the Saints’ dominating nature and the Falcons dominated nature, New Orleans is a heavy eight point favorite with the total coming in around 53.

New Orleans Saints

If not for two AFC East road games, the Saints would be sitting pretty at 10-0 right now.  Even in their two losses against the Patriots and Jets, though, they played competitively enough to have a chance at the end.  You can just tell that Brees, Payton, and the rest of the Saints offense are out to win the Superbowl just to stick it in Goodell and the rest of the league office’s face. 

New D-coordinator Rob Ryan’s defense is doing wonders and overall shutting down teams.  They made the Cowboys look absolutely foolish last two weeks ago for firing Ryan when they held the Cowboys to 17 points in a 49-17 rout.  Ryan and his D shouldn’t have much trouble against an ailing and flailing Falcons’ offense.

At home the Saints are unstoppable (as long as they get late roughing the passer calls) but on the road they’ve yet to win by more than a score.  If they want to lock up homefield for the wildcard and divisional rounds, they will need to play tough away from NO for the rest of the season as four of their six games, including tonight’s are on the road.  This will be a good test for the upcoming away games against SEA and CAR.

Atlanta Falcons

Just what happened to the Atlanta Falcons? They were in the NFC Championship earlier this year and came in to the year as one of the Superbowl favorites, yet now they’re sitting at the bottom of the NFC at 2-8. I feel like people should be making a bigger deal about this. Sure they lost Julio Jones and Roddy White and Steven Jackson have been hobbled by injuries, but c’mon, they have franchise QB Matt Ryan. 

After getting paid big bucks this offseason, Ryan’s play has dropped off a bit recently while the Falcons are getting crushed by an average of over 18 points over the last four games.  His play and injuries to receivers and lineman have made things a lot harder on the one healthy guy you’ve heard of – Tony Gonzalez – and overall the offense is sputtering. 

On D, things are just as bad as over the last eight games, in which the Falcons have gone 1-7, they’ve only given up less than 27 points once, and that was in their one win when they beat the winless Bucs 31-23.  If they’re not careful Brees could have a field day tonight.

Prediction

Although the Saints haven’t played as well away from the Superdome and have yet to win by more than a score, I still see them covering the eight point spread tonight.  It’s not so much how well they play, but how poorly the Falcons have been playing.  The one thing that makes me nervous is that it’s a divisional game.  The safer bet is probably teasing up the UNDER and the Saints down.  The Saints have only gone over the posted total once this year and ATL’s offense, even with Roddy White back, isn’t anything special.  New Orleans wins 34-16.

New Orleans Saints (-8) vs. ATLANTA FALCONS
UNDER 53.5

Tuesday Morning Quarterback: A is for Alliteration, but C is for Clowder

After tonight's Carolina Panthers victory on the Prime Time stage that is Monday Night Football against the Prime Time organization that is the New England Patriots and their Prime Time coaching-quarterback combo, I would be remiss not to mention a conversation I had with Psychic Granny C, animal-communicator extraordinaire and novice football fan, almost a year ago today. If I had to, I'm sure I could dig up a paragraph in the archives where I made ridiculed her extensively for this silly prognostication, but in the wake of her proclaimed Year of the Bird where the Ravens won the Super Bowl and the Falcons and Seahawks went deep into the playoffs, this dear readers is no laughing matter. The conversation went something like this:

Granny C: Vinny, that color, that shade of blue the Panthers are wearing. Would it be crazy to say they're going to go to the Super Bowl next year?

Vinny (trying to conceal his eye-roll and focus on the eight-game split screen): Yes.

Granny: Well, I'm going to make the bold prediction right now that next year will be The Year of the Cat and the Carolina Panthers will lead the pack.

Vinny: Okay (translation "Whatever, Crazy Lady"), but I think it's called a clowder.



Granny C: What?

Vinny: A group of cats. It's a clowder.

Granny C (trying to conceal her eye-roll): Well, whatever - that shade of blue is going to the Super Bowl.

Now, twelve months later, with the Bengals (first place cat AFC North), the Lions (first place cat NFC North), and the Carolina Panthers (second place cat NFC South but talent wise the clear leader of the clowder), Granny C's prophecy - much like the truth - has traversed from ridiculed to feared to violently opposed to accepted as fact. The Carolina Panthers are for real and if I can still get some good odds on them winning the Super Bowl, I'm going to place a small wager to recoup the losses for my If-They-Even-Make-the-Playoffs-I'll-Buy-You-Lunch Bet.



Well played, Granny C. Well played.

After going 12-1-1 ATS in Week 10, Marco and I came back down to earth with the following stats:

Week 11 Record: 6-6-3 ATS

Over/Under Record: 6-9

Friday Five Record: 2-2-1 ATS

Although it wasn't reflected in our ATS record, on a personal gambling/fantasy sports level this was one of those weekends where everything seemed to magically fall into place. On Saturday I needed Auburn to cover 4.5 points against Georgia to win a five-team parlay, and if you didn't see the TD catch that sealed the win you really must

To win a couple hundred dollars on a $10 bet is one thing, but to win it on a play like that made me want to dance like this guy

After the Auburn game, I could do no wrong - winning teasers and straight bets, and somehow eking out a fantasy football victory when Tom Brady's touchdown pass in the waning seconds of last night's game ending up in the arms of a Carolina Panther. When the gambling gods smile, they smile long and wide. 

Last week I branched out a little bit and made a hockey and basketball recommendation. They both hit, so I think I'll try again with a couple of extra-curricular sports betting prognostications. Here goes:

Extracurricular Betting Stats

NBA Record to Date: 1-0 ATS

NHL Record to Date: 1-0

NCAA Tuesday Night MACtion Packed Football

Kent State @ Ohio: The Ohio Bobcats are currently a -6 home favorite against the visiting Kent State Golden Flashes ("Um, Kent State, the WNBA called, they want their mascot back."). I believe this line would be higher were the Bobcats not just coming off a 49-0 beat down at the hands of Bowling Green and the Golden Flashes not coming off a 24-6 win over Miami OH. Some trends to consider include Kent State owning this series of late at 6-0 ATS and the Bobcats struggling in November at 0-5 ATS. The Golden Flashes, however, have struggled of late on field turf going 0-4 ATS, and the truth is the Bobcats are a better team this year, play great defense at home. Couple those facts with the Under going 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams and I'm recommending Kent State/Ohio UNDER 49

Buffalo @ Miami OH: The line is steep at -24 here, but I believe the Bulls bounce back from their 41-31 loss to Toledo last week - a game in which they were down 31-0 - and get the road win/cover over the winless Miami OH Red Hawks. Official Pick: Buffalo -24

Bonus Ten Point Tuesday Teaser Recommendation:

1. Buffalo -14.5 over Miami OH

2. Kent State +16

3. Kent State/Ohio UNDER 59

May the Spreads Be With You All,

Vinny and Marco

Bears vs Packers Pick ATS Monday Night Football

Bears vs Packers Pick ATS Monday Night  Football

The Packers are 10.5 point favorites at home against their rival Chicago Bears.

By: MaChez, TSZ Expert

This week the scheduling czars were nice enough to schedule all eleven games on Sunday without two teams with winning records.  This left me completely unenthused to write an article about any of those games so I decided to call an audible and write about the Monday Night Game, the only game this weekend featuring two teams over 500 and one of the greatest rivalries in pro sports: Packers vs. Bears.  Rodgers vs. Cut...McCown.  Lacey vs. Forte.  Cob...Jone...Fin...Nelson vs. Marhsall.  Matthe...Hawk vs. Brig...Bostic?  So maybe this rivalry isn't so exciting this year since it also features two of the most banged up teams in the league.  But the Bears need a win to stay competitive in the NFC North and these divisional games are always exciting.

The Spread

Although both teams are decimated, they are going in two different directions.  The Packers have won four straight while the Bears have lost three of their last four.  That coupled with this game being played in Green Bay is resulting in the Packers being favored by 10.5 points tonight with the total at 50.5.

Green Bay Packers

Since the preseason when Green Bay lost starting LT Bryan Bulaga to a season-ending injury, not a week has gone by when it doesn't seem like the Packers are losing yet another important player.  At this point their two first-round outside-linebackers, Clay Matthews and Nick Perry, are out on defense, while on offense they're missing three of Aaron Rodgers' top four receivers: Randall Cobb, James Jones, and Jermichael Finley.  Fortunately for the Packers, the O-line has discovered the winning-formula of keeping Rodgers healthy.  Despite all these injuries and guys that who had never taken NFL snaps before filling in at WR, Rodgers has the Packers rolling as of late and has inserted himself right back in to the MVP race after a slow start to the season.

Helping Rodgers stay the path is the emergence of a strong run offense and defense.  Rookie Eddie Lacey has finally given the Packers a reliable option running the ball and turned them in to the #7 running team in the league.  The defense meanwhile, with the return of Johnny Jolly, has finally learned how to stuff guys at the line, limiting opposing RBs to a total of 585 yards this year, good for fourth best in the league. Despite all the injuries, the Packers seem to have one of the most well-rounded teams in the league right now and will only improve as players return and young guys become more comfortable.

Chicago Bears

The Bears started out very promising, winning three straight to start the season under new coach Marc Trestman.  Although those wins were coming late in games, Cutler and the rest of the offense was clicking which helped accommodate for an aging defense.  But then the Bears hit a rough patch in the schedule with games against the Lions and Saints and things fell apart.  They've now lost three of their last four, with their only win coming against the Giants at home on Thursday night. In the meantime, Cutler tore his groin impregnating his wife for the second time and his out for at least a couple weeks.  Couple that with injuries to LB Lance Briggs and CB Peanut Tillman and the Bears are pretty thin right now.

Filling in for Cutler will be Josh McCown who actually played well in relief against the Washington BadNames.  A stacked receiving corps that includes Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery, Martellus Bennet, and Matt Forte really helped. So did a terrible Washington defense.  It will be interesting to see how well McCown plays with two weeks to prepare for this game.  On defense, the Bears aren't the same shutdown D they used to be.  They were still causing a lot of turnovers at the start of the season but have never held opponents to less than 21 points on the way to a 29.4 points allowed per game - good for fourth worst in the league. 

Prediction

The Packers have dominated this series since Rodgers became the starter.  He's never lost at home to the Bears and has won the last six against them.  In Chicago things get a bit shaky but tonight's game is in Green Bay where the Packers haven't lost since Week 1 of the 2012 season.  The Packers should win this game, but the question is by how much. 

According to VegasInsider.com, the Pack are 8-2 ATS when favored by double digits since the start of the 2011 season.  On top of that, they've won three of their last four by thirteen points or more and have won every game at home by an average of 16.3 points. Although this is a divisional match-up that could be unpredictable, give up the points in what should be an easy win for the Packers.

GREEN BAY PACKERS (+10.5) vs. Chicago Bears

UNDER 50.5

NFL Picks Week 9: Bengals Dolphins ATS, Predictions, Thursday Night Football

NFL Picks Week 9: Bengals Dolphins ATS Pick and Predictions

The Bengals are three point favorites coming in to Miami for this week’s Thursday night matchup.

By: MaChez, TSZ Expert

Can you believe it’s already Week 9? It feels like just yesterday that I was talking about the possible amazing Halloween Night of sports. Now it’s upon us, but only with games in three of the big sports (thanks Red Sox…), two great NBA matchups, three NHL games (including one that looks good), and of course Thursday Night Football.

Although this game would have been a little more exciting five weeks ago before the Dolphins lost four straight and the Bengals won four straight, it still holds a little intrigue.  With the Patriots beating them last week and facing the Steelers this week, the Dolphins really need a win this week to stay competitive in the AFC East.  Meanwhile, the Bengals have capitalized off of losing streaks by the Ravens and Browns to take a firm 2.5 game lead in the AFC North.

The Spread

Vegas opened this line up even but it has moved to -3 in favor of the Bengals over the past few days.  The total opened at 40 but quickly rose to 43 with both teams having favorable records against the total this year.

Cincinnati Bengals

Finally, Andy Dalton is taking advantage of one of the most stacked rosters in the league.  Last week he threw for a career-high five TDs, including four to Marvin Jones.   He has actually been sneaky good all season:  Dalton is now sixth in passer rating and fourth in touchdowns and yards, while the RB tandem of BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Giovani Bernard has helped the Bengals become the fifth best offense in the league.  Things are going so well that someone at ESPN has even added Dalton to their MVP watchlist…seriously:

Cincinnati’s D isn’t so bad either.  During their four game win streak they kept both the Patriots and Jets to nine points or less and had two pick sixes in last week’s beat down of the Jets.  Even in the games against the Bills and Lions when they gave up 24 points, they did what they needed to to allow the Bengals to win close.  The new season-ending injury to safety Taylor Mays won’t help things, though, in the already thin secondary.

Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins finally looked like they could be competitive this year.  The Jets and Patriots looked to be in down years and the Bills always are so the door was open for the Dolphins.  When they won three straight to open the season, it really seemed like it might be there season.  But then they traveled to New Orleans and things have gone downhill since.  So bad that one of their much needed offensive lineman got mad at a prank and actuallyran away…seriously: 

The offensive line is giving second year QB Ryan Tannehill absolutely no protection and the lack of a solid run game isn’t helping either.  Mike Wallace, the Dolphins’ huge offseason acquisition, has seen his production completely drop off which makes one wonder if Jeff Ireland accounted for the extra time Ben Roethlesberger gave Wallace to get open in Pittsburgh.  But then all this also makes one wonder why the Dolphins’ coaching staff isn’t rolling out Tannehill more since he‘s an athletic ex-college WR that can buy time for the offense.  These are all things I wonder after listening to the South Florida radio hosts wonder them all day.

Prediction

All things - recent play, rosters, coaching, time of posession, etc. - are pointing to a Bengals cover here.  And for that reason I’m taking the Dolphins and the points.  This game is much important to the Dolphins and they have the benefit of being at home on this short week.  Also, they haven’t played as poorly as their record might suggest.  In the last three games they’ve played really well in the first half but then blew the game late.  I see them playing a complete game this week and the Bengals slipping up a bit after playing too well for too long.  The OVER is a much safer bet though.  27-24 Dolphins.

MIAMI DOLPHINS (+3) vs. Cincinnati Bengals

OVER 43

Monday Night Football: Seahawks Rams ATS Pick, Predictions

Monday Night Football: Seahawks Rams ATS Pick, Predictions

Let me be the first to say, in the words of the immortal Shakespeare, "Fucketh Yeah!" It's about time I was able to just go to sleep on Sunday rather than searching the darkest recesses of my mind for another way to say, "Sorry," or "Hope's right around the corner," or "We'll get 'em next week," or "Isn't gambling the stupidest thing in the world?" It's nice to just be able to come back here and say, "Ahh, that was fun."



Even our losses felt like the right choices.

1. Miami over New England: totally the right choice until that bogus "you're not allowed to poke the ball away rule." Isn't that what makes fumbles so much fun? Why else would they shape the football that way? Grip? Aerodynamics? I don't think so. Somebody with a little more enthusiasm for the ridiculous needs to re-write the NFL constitution. And while they're at - how about some rodeo clowns to break up the scuffles between plays.



2. Atlanta over Arizona: I'm not saying Arizona isn't a good team...at home...against terrible defenses. I'm just saying that this game was a toss up, so I don't feel too bad about losing it - except for the fact that I missed out on $200 in an 11 team teaser because they couldn't cut the lead to 13. From now on we're Fading the Falcons. Not just because it sounds like a cool new wave '80's band, but because they kind of suck. And by kind of, I mean really, really.

3. Minnesota over Green Bay: Okay, this was terrible. This was Marco and I saying, "Let's roll the dice on this one." I doubt very much anyone listened to us, but I don't doubt that they doubted their resistance with a couple of minutes left in the first half before that pick six changed the whole game.



4. I can't even remember the fourth loss because there was so much winning. Actually, I it was the most memorable game of all as Calvin Johnson caught a zillion passes for two zillion yards on both the fantasy Raven's Hollow Pirates and the reality Detroit Lions. I'm sure true Detroit fans/gamblers will have an easier time swallowing that ATS loss than they would have with a minute and three seconds left in the game. Well played, Detroit. Well played.

So, for the first time all season our entire Expert Team has locked up a positive week with Laura and Kyle going 7-5 ATS and Nick, Todd, Marco and I carrying an 8-4 ATS record heading into tonight's NFC West showdown between the Seattle Seahawks and the St. Louis Rams. Psychic Granny C, however, has come down to earth a bit with a 5-7 ATS week. For the first time all season, after weeks of saying, "Vinny - it's just a game. Why do you get so worked up?" she finally understands my pain. I tried not to rub it in.

Monday Night Football

Tonight's match-up features the ATS Money Making Seattle Seahawks (5-2 ATS) against the Inversely Proportional St. Louis Rams (2-5 ATS). A week ago, with Sam Bradford not out for the season, I might have recommended taking a double digit home dog. With Bradford out, however, and the Rams offense already struggling to score points, I can't see this game being anything but a blowout. Seattle is the most complete team in the NFL and now they're getting their number one wide receiver back in Percy Harvin. The Rams were rumored to have contacted Brett Favre about a comeback, but he was very honest in saying,


"Against Seattle? Are you f--king kidding?"

The Rams have gone over the total in six of their seven games, including all three at home, but I'm not sure I trust that statistic against an incredible Seattle defense. The Seahawks might put up 30, but I'm not sure the Rams are going to get into the end zone. Sorry St. Louis fans, better luck next week in Tennessee.

Give up the two touchdowns and roll with Seattle.

Good luck and happy betting,

Vinny and Marco

NFL Picks Week 8: Panthers Buccaneers Pick ATS & Predictions

NFL Picks Week 8: Panthers Buccaneers Pick ATS & Predictions

Cam Newton and the Carolina Panthers travel to Tampa Bay where they’ll be 6.5 point favorites in their first divisional matchup.

By: MaChez, TSZ Expert

Another Thursday, another so-so matchup.  This week we have the pleasure of watching the definition-of-disappointment Tampa Bay Bucs face the things-are-finally-going-in-the-right-direction-but-how-long-can-it-actually-last-with-Ron-Rivera-and-Cam-Newton Carolina Panthers.  The Bucs, like only the Jaguars, have yet to win a game, have traded away their franchise quarterback, and just lost their star running back to a potentially season-ending torn labrum.  The Panthers on the other hand, have won two straight in considerable fashion (albeit against the Vikings and Rams) after starting the season 1-3 and have some people believing that they finally could be competitive.

The Spread

Due to the two teams’ current situations, Vegas has given Tampa Bay 6.5 points as home underdogs with the total sitting around 40.  This will be Carolina’s first divisional matchup but Tampa is already 0-2 inside the NFC South with losses to the Saints and Falcons.  While Tampa could already be officially eliminated from the playoffs in just three weeks, the Panthers are only two games out of first with two games left against the first-place New Orleans Saints.

Carolina Panthers

Up until two weeks ago this season had the makings of what one has come to expect from a Ron Rivera led team.  After demolishing the Giants 38-0 and coming off a bye, the Panthers looked flat in a 6-22 loss to the Cardinals that put them at 1-3.  But then, things started clicking, Cam Newton started completing 80% of his passes, and the Panthers rattled off two wins by an average of 20 points.  Those two wins were against some struggling teams, but Carolina can expect much of the same this week.

Although Cam Newton has been playing well, it’s actually the defense that has been winning games for the Panthers.  Ranked third in yards allowed per game (302.2) and second in points allowed per game (13.6) the defense is quietly shutting teams down.  That being said, they have had the benefit of an easy schedule with their last four matchups coming against teams with a bottom-ten offense.  They’ve only given up 7.75 points per game during that stretch, and should have an easy time repeating that performance this week.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Over the past seven weeks, head coach Greg Schiano has quite easily weaseled his way up to the #1 spot in the “coach most likely to be fired mid-season” competition.  And that’s about all he has going for him.  Somehow he managed to take a team loaded with talent and turn them all against him to the point that not a single player has publicly come to his support.  To the outside eye he seems like the last person you would ever want to work or play for.  There’s no way he lasts in to next year, even if they win ten straight.

Along with the terrible coaching, there’s not much else going well for the Bucs right now.   In what has to be the most frustrating season ever for Tampa fans, the team is losing by an average of less than eight points and three of their losses have come on last second field goals.  The coaching staff is misusing $15 million Darrelle Revis and the entire defense to the point that fans are legitimately offering to gameplan the D.  And to top it all off, other teams are hiring hazmat crews to clean the visiting locker room after the Bucs visit to prevent any of their losing spirit from infesting the stadium. 

Prediction

With the Bucs playing at home as underdogs of 6.5 points, they’re very tempting to take since they lose by three or less points half the time.  That being said, with the injury to Martin and everything else going wrong in Tampa right now, I see the Panthers barely covering.  Cam Newton is playing very efficiently right now and Carolina’s D will keep any chance of offense from Tampa in check.  23-13 Carolina.

Carolina Panthers (-6.5) over TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

UNDER 40

NFL Picks Week 7: Vikings Giants ATS and Monday Morning Quarterback

I have a confession to make. I have a little bit of a man crush. I'm only embarrassed to admit it because I don't think I've ever had a man crush on such a goofy looking guy. Sure, when Butler University returned to its second straight NCAA championship game as a surprise mid-major I shouted from the highest...couch top...that I heart Brad Stevens. But Brad Stevens was geek sheek before geeks knew there was a way out. In fact, Brad is so cool that when Kevin Garnett, Dwayne Wade, and the rest of the NBA started wearing fake glasses - he got contacts. And a job with the Celtics.

                 

             
"What? Of course these are prescription. B-ball is hard on the eyes."

And yes, when the Giants won the 2010 World Series behind strong pitching, the late-season journeymen pick-ups, and the powerful forearms of Pat Burrell, I admit I had some fantasies where Pat and I were partners...in a detective agency in the 1950's...and solved all sorts of crazy shananigans together. In fact, they became so real, that I sometimes imagined he was in black and white during his at bats because it just made more sense to me.

               
    "Dear Vinny, The feeling's mutual. Heart, Pat the Bat."

But this crush has been evolving over the past few years, partly out of respect for his on-field talent, but also in large part by the way he handles himself off the field. Last night, my 'hearting" him was solidified by his post-game press conference after the Sunday Night Football game. In case you haven't already figured it out...

            

Ewwww. Gross. No. Not Andrew Luck. Even at my age looks still matter a little bit.

Duh, it's Peyton Manning. Even in defeat and out of scripted commercials, this guy can do no wrong. Post-game, after praising the Colts and admitting the build-up to the game was "a little" emotionally exhausting he said, "I hope we get to see them again this year because that'll mean we're in the playoffs," then catching himself added, "We still have a long way to go before that, but the Colts look like they're headed there for sure." C'mon. "We still have a long way to go." Yeah, like four more wins as double digit favorites - starting with Washington at home next week. What a class act. I'll bet even if he weren't famous he would have landed a super hot Mrs. Aww Shucks Golly. Good job on life, Peyton. Good job on life.

                   

As for the rest of Sunday, I've never been so excited by the possibility of going 7-8 ATS tonight when the New York Giants (-3.5) trounce the visiting Minnesota Vikings. I'm also excited that our Friday Five finally went over .500. Unfortunately the Bears lost their starting QB in the first half and the Texans defense finally showed up, so we were left with a 3-2 ATS record, but we'll take it as a sign of good things to come.

If you're a TSZ Insider, look for an e-mail detailing the Friday Five Contest beginning Week 9. I'll send it out this week with the contest rundown. It will be your opportunity to show off your handicapping skills to the world. Or the few hundred people a day to stop by The Spread Zone.

Enjoy the Monday Night Football like only gamblers can, my friends. And seriously - tonight will be a game that only gamblers can.

Vinny and Marco