Monday Night Football: Seahawks Rams ATS Pick, Predictions

Monday Night Football: Seahawks Rams ATS Pick, Predictions

Let me be the first to say, in the words of the immortal Shakespeare, "Fucketh Yeah!" It's about time I was able to just go to sleep on Sunday rather than searching the darkest recesses of my mind for another way to say, "Sorry," or "Hope's right around the corner," or "We'll get 'em next week," or "Isn't gambling the stupidest thing in the world?" It's nice to just be able to come back here and say, "Ahh, that was fun."



Even our losses felt like the right choices.

1. Miami over New England: totally the right choice until that bogus "you're not allowed to poke the ball away rule." Isn't that what makes fumbles so much fun? Why else would they shape the football that way? Grip? Aerodynamics? I don't think so. Somebody with a little more enthusiasm for the ridiculous needs to re-write the NFL constitution. And while they're at - how about some rodeo clowns to break up the scuffles between plays.



2. Atlanta over Arizona: I'm not saying Arizona isn't a good team...at home...against terrible defenses. I'm just saying that this game was a toss up, so I don't feel too bad about losing it - except for the fact that I missed out on $200 in an 11 team teaser because they couldn't cut the lead to 13. From now on we're Fading the Falcons. Not just because it sounds like a cool new wave '80's band, but because they kind of suck. And by kind of, I mean really, really.

3. Minnesota over Green Bay: Okay, this was terrible. This was Marco and I saying, "Let's roll the dice on this one." I doubt very much anyone listened to us, but I don't doubt that they doubted their resistance with a couple of minutes left in the first half before that pick six changed the whole game.



4. I can't even remember the fourth loss because there was so much winning. Actually, I it was the most memorable game of all as Calvin Johnson caught a zillion passes for two zillion yards on both the fantasy Raven's Hollow Pirates and the reality Detroit Lions. I'm sure true Detroit fans/gamblers will have an easier time swallowing that ATS loss than they would have with a minute and three seconds left in the game. Well played, Detroit. Well played.

So, for the first time all season our entire Expert Team has locked up a positive week with Laura and Kyle going 7-5 ATS and Nick, Todd, Marco and I carrying an 8-4 ATS record heading into tonight's NFC West showdown between the Seattle Seahawks and the St. Louis Rams. Psychic Granny C, however, has come down to earth a bit with a 5-7 ATS week. For the first time all season, after weeks of saying, "Vinny - it's just a game. Why do you get so worked up?" she finally understands my pain. I tried not to rub it in.

Monday Night Football

Tonight's match-up features the ATS Money Making Seattle Seahawks (5-2 ATS) against the Inversely Proportional St. Louis Rams (2-5 ATS). A week ago, with Sam Bradford not out for the season, I might have recommended taking a double digit home dog. With Bradford out, however, and the Rams offense already struggling to score points, I can't see this game being anything but a blowout. Seattle is the most complete team in the NFL and now they're getting their number one wide receiver back in Percy Harvin. The Rams were rumored to have contacted Brett Favre about a comeback, but he was very honest in saying,


"Against Seattle? Are you f--king kidding?"

The Rams have gone over the total in six of their seven games, including all three at home, but I'm not sure I trust that statistic against an incredible Seattle defense. The Seahawks might put up 30, but I'm not sure the Rams are going to get into the end zone. Sorry St. Louis fans, better luck next week in Tennessee.

Give up the two touchdowns and roll with Seattle.

Good luck and happy betting,

Vinny and Marco

NFL Picks Week 4: Niners vs Rams ATS Pick & Predictions

NFL Picks Week 4: Niners vs Rams ATS Pick & Predictions

Colin Kaepernick and the 49ers are 3 point favorites on the road against St. Louis with the total set at 42.

By: MaChez, TSZ Expert

Can you believe it’s already the fourth week of the NFL season? Four more days and we’ll already be a quarter of the way through the season.  Now if I had told you the 49ers would be 1-2 after three weeks, would you have ever believed it?  What if I told you the Rams also would be 1-2? Yeah, I guess that’s a little more believable.

The two teams face off in St. Louis on Thursday night  in what should be an exciting game with season-long implications.  If San Francisco loses, they will be sitting at the bottom of the division with only one less loss than they had all of last season.  If St. Louis loses, they will be sitting in the same place with trips to Seattle and San Francisco still on their plate.  Last season both match-ups went to overtime with one ending in a tie so we can expect a close one on Thursday.

San Francisco 49ers

In the last two weeks the 49ers have been outscored 56-10 and whispers that started after Week 1 about the offense being too complicated for Kaepernick have grown louder and louder.  No one can fault them for losing in Seattle, but only putting up three points is embarrassing .  And then to lose by 20 at home?!  Something is off.  Vernon Davis’ likely return from injury will help, but the fact that Anquan Boldin is their only other weapon is troubling.  Things on defense don’t look great either after two straight weeks of several costly penalties.

St. Louis Rams

After starting the season with an exciting win against Arizona, the Rams have lost two straight on the road to the Falcons and Cowboys.  In both games they gave up 31 points but only in the Falcons game did they mount any kind of comeback.  Last week against Dallas they scored only seven and gave up six sacks after not allowing a single one since last season.  The Rams offensive line has been one of their strong points and will need to revert to their old ways to give Sam Bradford a chance against San Francisco. 

The Spread

Despite San Francisco’s recent struggles, Vegas has made them three point favorites with the total set at 42.  Although bets are split 50/50 on the total, handicappers seem to agree with San Francisco as big favorites with 77% of them giving up the points.  But here at the SpreadZone, we are the 23%!

The Rams will be facing a defense in San Francisco that has given up an average of 28 points this season and will now be without LB Aldon Smith, NT Ian Williams, and the heart of the defense, Patrick Willis.   Bradford has always played well against the 49ers, and like in his game against ARI, should have no problem putting up points at home.

On the other side of the ball, similar to what we’re seeing in Washington, defenses have picked up on the 49ers read-option and are limiting the effectiveness of both Kaepernick and running back Frank Gore.  St. Louis should continue this trend and will force Kaepernick to throw against one of the better CB tandems in Cortland Finnegan and Janoris Jenkins.

Last season, St. Louis handed Kaepernick the starting job by knocking out Alex Smith and then handed him his first loss three weeks later in St. Louis.  In that game, Kaep was only able to manage 13 points, threw a ball away in the end zone for a safety and overthrew a pitch that was recovered for a St. Louis touchdown.  Expect Janoris Jenkins and the loud dome to pose problems for Kapernick again and the Rams to cover the spread with a likely straight up win.  However, this won’t be the defensive battle we saw the last time these two teams faced off - take the OVER.

Prediction:     ST. LOUIS RAMS (+3) over San Francisco 49ers, OVER 42 


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NFL Week 12 Picks ATS: Please Pass the Gravy

LAST WEEK: 8-6 ATS - Sixth straight week above .500

SEASON TO DATE: 90-71 ATS

THURSDAY THREE FAN PICKS: 3-0 ATS - smartest fans on the Inter-Web

FRIDAY FIVE CONFIDENCE PICKS: 4-1 ATS last week, 19-7 ATS on the season.

Hang on a second TSZ readers, I just need to loosen my belt a little bit because I've already had three giant servings of...what's that stuff called again...oh yeah, WINNING. Mmmm...Delicious. Thank you Lions, thank you Redskins, thank you Patriots, and thank you inconsistent, underachieving Cowboys. I hope Jason Garrett follows The Spread Zone and took our betting advice, because he's going to need a little extra cash while he collects unemployment. Big D is for Disaster. 

It's the time of year for gratitude, not gloating, so let's just say we're thankful and move on to the rest of the first 16-0 ATS week in the brief history of TSZ. The Week 12 line-up has a remarkable 11 of the remaining 13 games with lines under 4 points, and 8 of those are handicapped at less than a field goal. Can you say awesome freakin' weekend? Looks like we might build on the record-setting pace of 24% of NFL games this season being decided in the final two minutes. Fasten your seat belts and loosen your wallets, because we're in for a post-Thanksgiving Day football feast. 

As you've probably gathered by now our picks are bold and HOME TEAMS are in CAPS. Now let's pour the gravy on our 3-0 ATS start this week.

CHICAGO BEARS (-0.5) over Minnesota Vikings: This line is obviously suffering from the Jason Campbell Effect. With Cutler returning this week, the line should be more like 6.5, and we would still support the Bears up to a touchdown. An angry Bears defense will be Peanut punching and picking Ponder and Co. all day. Even with Peterson in the backfield the past few years, Minnesota is 0-5 SU and ATS in their last five visits to Chicago, while the Bears are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 against the Vikes. 

CINCINNATI BENGALS (-7.5) over Oakland Raiders: Although the Bengals are a disappointing 3-7-1 in their last 11 home games, they are a team on the rise in the AFC. Dalton and the passing game will be efficient and score big early. The Law Firm will carry them the rest of the way to an easy victory. The most impressive thing lately is the play of Cincinnati's defense. They will cash in on some forced throws from Carson Palmer who will be trying to show up his old team. Play all your Bengals in Fantasy Football this week! 

                                  

Pittsburgh Steelers (-1.5) over CLEVELAND BROWNS: Like we said before, we like Charlie Batch more than Byron Leftwich. Batch will manage the game well by not trying to do too much. This is a game where we think the Steelers dominant defense will win the game. Although Cleveland is 5-1-1 ATS recently within their division, Pittsburgh is 16-1 SU in their last 17 against the Browns. With a 1.5 point line, if you take the Browns, you are really saying they'll win outright. We don't see that happening.

Atlanta Falcons (-1.5) over TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS: This is a classic undervalued versus overvalued match-up. Who has Tampa Bay beaten this year? Carolina twice, Kansas City, Oakland, San Diego, and Minnesota. None of them has the weapons the Falcons have. Matt Ryan throwing 5 picks and no TDs last week was a statistical anomaly. Sure, the Bucs always play the Falcons well, but Atlanta's passing attack will eat up the horrible Tampa Bay secondary. The Bucs will only be the sexy pick until the game kicks off. Fantasy owners, however, remember to start Josh Freeman because he's going to be playing catch-up from the second quarter on. 

Denver Broncos (-10.5) over KANSAS CITY CHIEFS: It looks like Brady Quinn will get the start at quarterback this week for Kansas City, which ultimately made our choice for us. We actually have a hard time betting against Matt Cassel simply because he used to be a Pro-Bowler and could go off any week. No, he was not a professional bowler, but that would have influenced our pick, too. The Broncos are one of the hottest team in football, and are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 trips to Kansas City. Although they are 0-10 ATS in their past 10 games as a favorite of 8+ points, we see that streak coming to an end as Peyton throws for three TDs in the first half alone, and the Denver defense continues its accelerating dominance. Broncos big.

                         

Buffalo Bills (+3.5) over INDIANAPOLIS COLTS: It appears the league has figured out some of Andrew Luck's tendencies. Although the Colts are very good at home - 6-1 SU and ATS of late - the Bills defense is playing better and should be able to disrupt their offense enough to force some timely turnovers. The glaring difference between the two teams is the running game. With Fred Jackson back to spell him from time to time, we see CJ Spiller having a career day as Buffalo wins this outright.

Seattle Seahawks (-3.5) over MIAMI DOLPHINS: What happened to the Dolphins? We'll tell you. They've been running a college football scheme all season to ensure quarterback Ryan Tannehill's success. Unfortunately, while the college season is coming to an end, the NFL goes on...and on. Tannehill should have pulled a Brandon Weeden and stayed in college until he was 29. Like we always say here at The Spread Zone "Leaving college in fours years is like leaving a great party at 9:30 pm." Historically, Seattle is bad on the road and coming out of the bye, but as one of our followers likes to say, "rushing and defense travel well." We'd like to add passing and "pointy birds" to the list. Beast Mode scores two TDs and Wilson throws for a couple more as the Dolphins swim into another defensive net. 

Tennessee Titans (-3.5) over JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS: We do not understand the over-hype for Chad Henne. If the hype were simply around his Movember mustache, we'd totally get it, but it appears people think he's also a talented football player. The fact is he's a career 60% passer who has more INTs than TDs since being drafted by the Dolphins in 2008. Let's face it, ever since losing to Appalachian State his senior year at Michigan, he has basked in mediocrity. Get off the Jaguar bandwagon and come back to reality. Both teams have terrible SU/ATS stats against everything and everyone in recent history, but the Titans are rested and prepared, which is a recipe for a blowout in Jacksonville. 

                                         

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (+1.5) over Baltimore Ravens: A compelling stat we found was that the Ravens are 12-8 ATS in their last 20 against the AFC West. However, a closer look reveals that 9 of those ATS wins came at home, leaving them with an unimpressive 3-7 ATS record when they travel to play this division. The Chargers now have more than just Malcom Floyd and Antonio Gates with the emergence of Danario Alexander in the passing game. Danario has elite skills, but has struggled with injuries his whole career. We see him having a big game, while Ryan Mathews gets back on track running against a soft Baltimore defense. Take the points and the Chargers in a close one.

St. Louis Rams (+2.5) over ARIZONA CARDINALS: Initially we were rolling with the Cards at home, but the announcement of Lindley starting at QB this week changed everything. It feels like Arizona is tanking it. Are they trying to win the Matt Barkley sweepstakes? Since they're starting their third string QB you have to wonder. Any Rams stats we found are deceptive because of their recent history. The important one is that they've covered their last four division games. Jeff Fisher will have his defense ready to exploit the young Arizona QB. We like St. Louis so much, Vinny picked up their defense for his fantasy team.

San Francisco Forty Niners (-2.5) over NEW ORLEANS SAINTS: Much like the Rams above, ATS stats for the Saints (12-2 ATS at home, 6-1 SU vs Niners) will be deceptive. Those numbers didn't pile up with a defense that gives up almost 500 yards/game. Similarly, the Niners are a very different team now than they have been for the past decade. Their defense will slow the Saints offensive attack down, and Frank Gore and Kendall Hunter will run all over the New Orleans defense, making it unimportant whether Alex Smith, Colin Kaepernick, or your grandmother follow the micro-managed John Harbaugh game plan. Just be careful - if it is your grandma, you might lose her for the holidays if she has "the hot hand" this week.

Green Bay Packers (+2.5) over NEW YORK GIANTS: The Packers relish the underdog role, going 9-1 ATS in their last 10, while the Giants are 3-8-1 in their last 12 at home. Aaron Rodgers gets Jordy Nelson back this week, which adds to their more consistent and reliable offense. We do think Eli will bounce back against a shaky Packers secondary, but even his fourth quarter magic will not be enough to pull a rabbit out of this hat. Green Bay rolls to their fifth straight win in New York.

                             

Monday Night Football

Carolina Panthers +2.5 over PHILADELPHIA EAGLES: We recommend not watching this game. It will be ugly and there is a Who's the Boss marathon on TVGN, which will get almost as many laughs. Nick Foles, however, will get his QBR into double digits, and Cam Newton will foolishly do his Superman touchdown routine even though they will only be rolling to their third victory of the season. I think he needs to come up with a Mediocre Man TD dance where he just sits down, takes of his shoes, rubs his feet, and grabs a beer out of the mini-fridge in his sock. We think this will be a one or two point game, so we're taking the points.


Phew. Those extra three games are exhausting. We sure could use a cup of coffee. Nudge, nudge, wink, wink. 

Thanks again to all of our loyal followers. Today is Thanksgiving and we are eternally grateful to you for making The Spread Zone what it is today. We hope you all had a wonderful day with friends, family, food, football, and fun. And, in the spirit of continued alliteration - see you tomorrow for our fabulous Friday Five. 

Happy Holidays and Happy Betting, 

Vinny and Marco

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