NFL Picks Week 12: Saints vs Falcons ATS, Predictions, Thrursday Night Football

NFL Picks Week 12: Saints vs Falcons ATS, Predictions, Thrursday Night Football

The Saints are eight point road favorites as the travel to Atlanta to face the Falcons.

By: MaChez, TSZ Expert Writer

Only 12 weeks ago, tonight’s NFC South showdown between the Saints and Falcons would have been considered one of the best games of the season (it’s already Week 12?!).  But, the Falcons are one of those teams we get every year, those great teams from the year before that completely ish the bed for no reason.  The Saints on the other hand are on a mission after coach Sean Payton’s year-long ban from the league and are only one game out of the #1 spot in the NFC. The resurgent Panthers are right on their tails though so they can’t slip up from here on out.

The Spread

Due to the Saints’ dominating nature and the Falcons dominated nature, New Orleans is a heavy eight point favorite with the total coming in around 53.

New Orleans Saints

If not for two AFC East road games, the Saints would be sitting pretty at 10-0 right now.  Even in their two losses against the Patriots and Jets, though, they played competitively enough to have a chance at the end.  You can just tell that Brees, Payton, and the rest of the Saints offense are out to win the Superbowl just to stick it in Goodell and the rest of the league office’s face. 

New D-coordinator Rob Ryan’s defense is doing wonders and overall shutting down teams.  They made the Cowboys look absolutely foolish last two weeks ago for firing Ryan when they held the Cowboys to 17 points in a 49-17 rout.  Ryan and his D shouldn’t have much trouble against an ailing and flailing Falcons’ offense.

At home the Saints are unstoppable (as long as they get late roughing the passer calls) but on the road they’ve yet to win by more than a score.  If they want to lock up homefield for the wildcard and divisional rounds, they will need to play tough away from NO for the rest of the season as four of their six games, including tonight’s are on the road.  This will be a good test for the upcoming away games against SEA and CAR.

Atlanta Falcons

Just what happened to the Atlanta Falcons? They were in the NFC Championship earlier this year and came in to the year as one of the Superbowl favorites, yet now they’re sitting at the bottom of the NFC at 2-8. I feel like people should be making a bigger deal about this. Sure they lost Julio Jones and Roddy White and Steven Jackson have been hobbled by injuries, but c’mon, they have franchise QB Matt Ryan. 

After getting paid big bucks this offseason, Ryan’s play has dropped off a bit recently while the Falcons are getting crushed by an average of over 18 points over the last four games.  His play and injuries to receivers and lineman have made things a lot harder on the one healthy guy you’ve heard of – Tony Gonzalez – and overall the offense is sputtering. 

On D, things are just as bad as over the last eight games, in which the Falcons have gone 1-7, they’ve only given up less than 27 points once, and that was in their one win when they beat the winless Bucs 31-23.  If they’re not careful Brees could have a field day tonight.

Prediction

Although the Saints haven’t played as well away from the Superdome and have yet to win by more than a score, I still see them covering the eight point spread tonight.  It’s not so much how well they play, but how poorly the Falcons have been playing.  The one thing that makes me nervous is that it’s a divisional game.  The safer bet is probably teasing up the UNDER and the Saints down.  The Saints have only gone over the posted total once this year and ATL’s offense, even with Roddy White back, isn’t anything special.  New Orleans wins 34-16.

New Orleans Saints (-8) vs. ATLANTA FALCONS
UNDER 53.5

NFL Picks Week 9: Bengals Dolphins ATS, Predictions, Thursday Night Football

NFL Picks Week 9: Bengals Dolphins ATS Pick and Predictions

The Bengals are three point favorites coming in to Miami for this week’s Thursday night matchup.

By: MaChez, TSZ Expert

Can you believe it’s already Week 9? It feels like just yesterday that I was talking about the possible amazing Halloween Night of sports. Now it’s upon us, but only with games in three of the big sports (thanks Red Sox…), two great NBA matchups, three NHL games (including one that looks good), and of course Thursday Night Football.

Although this game would have been a little more exciting five weeks ago before the Dolphins lost four straight and the Bengals won four straight, it still holds a little intrigue.  With the Patriots beating them last week and facing the Steelers this week, the Dolphins really need a win this week to stay competitive in the AFC East.  Meanwhile, the Bengals have capitalized off of losing streaks by the Ravens and Browns to take a firm 2.5 game lead in the AFC North.

The Spread

Vegas opened this line up even but it has moved to -3 in favor of the Bengals over the past few days.  The total opened at 40 but quickly rose to 43 with both teams having favorable records against the total this year.

Cincinnati Bengals

Finally, Andy Dalton is taking advantage of one of the most stacked rosters in the league.  Last week he threw for a career-high five TDs, including four to Marvin Jones.   He has actually been sneaky good all season:  Dalton is now sixth in passer rating and fourth in touchdowns and yards, while the RB tandem of BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Giovani Bernard has helped the Bengals become the fifth best offense in the league.  Things are going so well that someone at ESPN has even added Dalton to their MVP watchlist…seriously:

Cincinnati’s D isn’t so bad either.  During their four game win streak they kept both the Patriots and Jets to nine points or less and had two pick sixes in last week’s beat down of the Jets.  Even in the games against the Bills and Lions when they gave up 24 points, they did what they needed to to allow the Bengals to win close.  The new season-ending injury to safety Taylor Mays won’t help things, though, in the already thin secondary.

Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins finally looked like they could be competitive this year.  The Jets and Patriots looked to be in down years and the Bills always are so the door was open for the Dolphins.  When they won three straight to open the season, it really seemed like it might be there season.  But then they traveled to New Orleans and things have gone downhill since.  So bad that one of their much needed offensive lineman got mad at a prank and actuallyran away…seriously: 

The offensive line is giving second year QB Ryan Tannehill absolutely no protection and the lack of a solid run game isn’t helping either.  Mike Wallace, the Dolphins’ huge offseason acquisition, has seen his production completely drop off which makes one wonder if Jeff Ireland accounted for the extra time Ben Roethlesberger gave Wallace to get open in Pittsburgh.  But then all this also makes one wonder why the Dolphins’ coaching staff isn’t rolling out Tannehill more since he‘s an athletic ex-college WR that can buy time for the offense.  These are all things I wonder after listening to the South Florida radio hosts wonder them all day.

Prediction

All things - recent play, rosters, coaching, time of posession, etc. - are pointing to a Bengals cover here.  And for that reason I’m taking the Dolphins and the points.  This game is much important to the Dolphins and they have the benefit of being at home on this short week.  Also, they haven’t played as poorly as their record might suggest.  In the last three games they’ve played really well in the first half but then blew the game late.  I see them playing a complete game this week and the Bengals slipping up a bit after playing too well for too long.  The OVER is a much safer bet though.  27-24 Dolphins.

MIAMI DOLPHINS (+3) vs. Cincinnati Bengals

OVER 43

NFL Picks Week 8: Panthers Buccaneers Pick ATS & Predictions

NFL Picks Week 8: Panthers Buccaneers Pick ATS & Predictions

Cam Newton and the Carolina Panthers travel to Tampa Bay where they’ll be 6.5 point favorites in their first divisional matchup.

By: MaChez, TSZ Expert

Another Thursday, another so-so matchup.  This week we have the pleasure of watching the definition-of-disappointment Tampa Bay Bucs face the things-are-finally-going-in-the-right-direction-but-how-long-can-it-actually-last-with-Ron-Rivera-and-Cam-Newton Carolina Panthers.  The Bucs, like only the Jaguars, have yet to win a game, have traded away their franchise quarterback, and just lost their star running back to a potentially season-ending torn labrum.  The Panthers on the other hand, have won two straight in considerable fashion (albeit against the Vikings and Rams) after starting the season 1-3 and have some people believing that they finally could be competitive.

The Spread

Due to the two teams’ current situations, Vegas has given Tampa Bay 6.5 points as home underdogs with the total sitting around 40.  This will be Carolina’s first divisional matchup but Tampa is already 0-2 inside the NFC South with losses to the Saints and Falcons.  While Tampa could already be officially eliminated from the playoffs in just three weeks, the Panthers are only two games out of first with two games left against the first-place New Orleans Saints.

Carolina Panthers

Up until two weeks ago this season had the makings of what one has come to expect from a Ron Rivera led team.  After demolishing the Giants 38-0 and coming off a bye, the Panthers looked flat in a 6-22 loss to the Cardinals that put them at 1-3.  But then, things started clicking, Cam Newton started completing 80% of his passes, and the Panthers rattled off two wins by an average of 20 points.  Those two wins were against some struggling teams, but Carolina can expect much of the same this week.

Although Cam Newton has been playing well, it’s actually the defense that has been winning games for the Panthers.  Ranked third in yards allowed per game (302.2) and second in points allowed per game (13.6) the defense is quietly shutting teams down.  That being said, they have had the benefit of an easy schedule with their last four matchups coming against teams with a bottom-ten offense.  They’ve only given up 7.75 points per game during that stretch, and should have an easy time repeating that performance this week.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Over the past seven weeks, head coach Greg Schiano has quite easily weaseled his way up to the #1 spot in the “coach most likely to be fired mid-season” competition.  And that’s about all he has going for him.  Somehow he managed to take a team loaded with talent and turn them all against him to the point that not a single player has publicly come to his support.  To the outside eye he seems like the last person you would ever want to work or play for.  There’s no way he lasts in to next year, even if they win ten straight.

Along with the terrible coaching, there’s not much else going well for the Bucs right now.   In what has to be the most frustrating season ever for Tampa fans, the team is losing by an average of less than eight points and three of their losses have come on last second field goals.  The coaching staff is misusing $15 million Darrelle Revis and the entire defense to the point that fans are legitimately offering to gameplan the D.  And to top it all off, other teams are hiring hazmat crews to clean the visiting locker room after the Bucs visit to prevent any of their losing spirit from infesting the stadium. 

Prediction

With the Bucs playing at home as underdogs of 6.5 points, they’re very tempting to take since they lose by three or less points half the time.  That being said, with the injury to Martin and everything else going wrong in Tampa right now, I see the Panthers barely covering.  Cam Newton is playing very efficiently right now and Carolina’s D will keep any chance of offense from Tampa in check.  23-13 Carolina.

Carolina Panthers (-6.5) over TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

UNDER 40

NFL Picks Week 7: Seahawks Cardinals Pick ATS, Predictions

NFL Picks Week 7: Seahawks Cardinals Pick ATS, Predictions

The Seattle Seahawks are 6.5 point road favorites against the division rival Arizona Cardinals.

By: MaChez, TSZ Expert

This week’s Thursday game gives us an exciting NFC West division matchup between the 5-1 Seahawks and the surprising 3-3 Arizona Cardinals.  The Cardinals will try to avenge a 58-0 beat down from last year, while the Seahawks will try to finally put up a good performance on the road where they’re average point differential is less than one.

Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks finally lost their first game of the season in a back-and-forth battle in Indianapolis in Week 5.  In Week 6 they rebounded with a seven-point win over the Jake Locker-less Titans and will now try to recover during a short week to take down the Cardinals.  Russell Wilson isn’t playing as well stats wise as last year, but Marshawn Lynch continues to be the focus of this offense, scoring two TDs and accounting for 155 total yards against the Titans.

The Seahawks defense is solid as usual.  Headed by strong personalities like CB Richard Sherman, the Seahawks are second in yards allowed and third in points allowed while taking the ball away a league-leading seventeen times.  In their two road wins this year, the defense was responsible for the wins when they forced late fourth quarter turnovers to keep the offense in the game.

Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals are flying under the radar at an even 3-3.  Last week they actually played pretty well against the stingy SF defense (403 total offensive yards) but two costly turnovers by new Cardinal signal-caller Carson Palmer kept Arizona from winning the game.  Star wideout Larry Fitzgerald has been slowed by a hamstring injury but historically has played very well against the Seahawks.

Arizona’s defense is playing pretty well recently, too.  After giving up 20 or more points in their first three games, they had two solid outings against the Panthers and Bucs when they gave up 10 points or less in each game.  Plus, against the run they’re only allowing 90.7 yards/game, good for fifth in the league.

The Spread

This line opened with the Seahawks as 4.5 point favorites but quickly rose to 6.5, with the total at 40.5.  When you look at Seattle’s road struggles and Arizona’s previous record against the Seahawks, 7-1 SU and ATS over the last eight, its surprising that this spread is so big.  

Even with this and all other signs pointing to an Arizona cover, I‘m going to take my new strategy of avoiding anything obvious and take Seattle.  Arizona’s strong run-D may limit Lynch on the ground, but he only had 78 yards last week on the ground with half of his yards actually coming through the air.  Wilson will have no problem utilizing Lynch and the rest of his weapons against a Cardinal’s D that’s allowing an average of 28 points in games against teams with records of 500 or better.

On the other side of the ball, Carson Palmer will be forced to score points against one of the league’s best defenses.  He had two turnovers last week and it wouldn’t be surprising if he has the same this week, if not more.  This game will be close for most of the game but count on Seattle’s D to take the ball away late, setting it up for the Seahawks to get a late score and cover.

PREDICTION:  Seattle Seahawks (-6.5) over ARIZONA CARDINALS

OVER 40.5

NFL Picks Week 6: Giants Bears Pick ATS and Predictions

 NFL Picks Week 6: Giants Bears Pick ATS 

The New York Giants travel to the Windy City as eight point underdogs against the Chicago Bears.

By:  MaChez, TSZ Expert

Unlike last week’s Bills/Browns matchup that looked like a surefire midweek buzz kill before the season, this week’s match-up between the Giants and Bears looked to be one of the best Thursday night match-ups when the scheduling czar’s released the line-up.  Not so much anymore.  The Giants are competing with the Steelers for biggest surprise terrible team and have yet to win a game.  The Bears on the other hand are tied for first in the NFC North.

With the Giants traveling to Chicago, it seems like an easy win for the Bears, but hey, the Jets beat the Falcons on Monday night.  Plus, we all know how well the Giants play with their backs against the wall, (although I don’t how much longer we can keep using that).  At least the Giants can fight for a good record against the spread.  Oh wait…they’re 0-5 there, too.  I tried Giants fans…at least you’ll probably have Bill Cowher as a coach next year, right?

New York Giants 

With his brother on pace to demolish every good QB record, Eli Manning has decided to shoot for his own record - most interceptions in a season - and is currently on pace for second, only four behind first-place George Blanda’s 51 year record of 42 picks.  And that’s about the only thing going for the Giants.  Last in rushing yards per game, last in points allowed, third to last in points per game, third to last in passer rating, second to last in sacks, etc. etc. 

The Giants are just not a very good team.  They were actually somewhat competitive with the Eagles (after Michael Vick got injured) but then Eli threw three fourth quarter interceptions along with the game away.  There seems to be a complete lack of energy and belief they can win.  All this being said, they are amazingly only two games out of first place in the division with four games left within the division.  Because of that their season isn’t even close to over yet, however with the rest of the NFC North, Seattle, Oakland and San Diego still left on the schedule, this is as close to a must win as you can get.

Chicago Bears

The Bears on the other hand have been a pleasant surprise this season.  After firing their entire coaching staff during the offseason, the new staff and players seemed to be gelling quite well on their way to a 3-0 start to the season.  Cutler was happy and decently protected, Forte was playing extremely well, and new TE Martellus Bennett was extremely clutch in the fourth quarter.  In Week 4, same ole Jay showed up though and the Bears lost their first game of the year to the Lions when he turned the ball over four times.

Last week at home against the Saints, although they lost, the offense was back on track, especially second-year wideout, Alshon Jeffery, who put up over 200 yards and a TD.  Cutler didn’t turn the ball over, but unfortunately neither did the Saints during their astounding 36 minutes on the field against an extremely dangerous defense that forced 16 turnovers in the four previous games.  They should have an easier time against Eli and the Giants.

The Spread

In an attempt to help the Giants get out of their ATS slump, Vegas is spotting them a whole eight points, with the total sitting around 47.5.

Again, that’s about all the Giants have going for them.  This game should be a walk in the park for the Bears.  Other strong passing teams (Denver, Dallas, and Philly) were all able to put 36+ points on the Giants and the Bears should have no problem doing the same with Brandon Marshall, Jeffery, Matt Forte, and Martellus “Rain Man” Bennett running routes for Cutler and Marc “Willy Wonka” Trestman.

Eli likely will have another 3+ INT game (like he did against DEN, DAL, and PHI) trying to play catchup against the turnover machine Chicago D.  Give up the points, and take the OVER.  The Bears will let Eli score a couple times in garbage time.

PREDICTION:  CHICAGO BEARS (-8) vs. New York Giants

                                OVER 47.5

NFL Picks Week 6: Giants vs Bears Pick ATS - Both Teams Can Run "Very Fast"

Last night, after the NY Jets put some whipped cream on the Crapple Pie that was Week 5, I turned to playoff baseball just in time to catch former San Francisco Giants closer Brian Wilson take the mound as the Los Angeles Dodgers set-up guy. That's us, I thought - we're the Brian Wilson of NFL handicapping. We were closers last year, finishing games and weeks by striking out the side, nailing the Sunday afternoon and evening games, not relying on Geno Smith to bring our ATS record up to 4-10 on Monday. 

Then it occurred to me that the only difference between Brian, Marco, and me is that he still has that intangible confidence of a closer. Plus the Hair Club for Men beard, the Hair Club for Punk Rockers mohawk, and a seven figure deal on the table from 800razors to be their brand ambassador. I'd like to say for the record that I only have some three-day stubble going on and a receding hairline, but I'll work for a lot less. 

My next thought, after searching for similarities between me, Marco, and Brian was how funny I thought it would be if a former closer come set-up guy finished off the eighth inning, threw his hands in air and dropped to his knees or ran and jumped in his catchers arms to celebrate the victory that was not. The moral of this short obscure story - it's pretty easy to cheer yourself up after a miserable weekend of football if you just change the channel and use your imagination.

I mean, c'mon - we're sports fans and gamblers. There's always another game or week just around the corner. 

WNBA Finals continue tonight. You might think I'm kidding, but the Lynx are an impressive defensive team, covered 9 easily in Game 1 and are set to do the same at home in Game 2 tonight. Maya Moore hardly ever lost at UConn and she hardly ever loses now.

In the spirit of turning to the better gender for help with our gambling compulsion, I decided to shake things up at TSZ this week by recruiting a new Expert and three year veteran of...well, the world...when I asked my daughter to help us out with our NFL Week 6 Picks. I'm not quite sure how to gauge her confidence in these picks for our Friday Five, but I think she might be on to something with her analysis. I mean let's face it - Bears do run very fast, and although they did far from that last night, Jets do sometimes make you want to throw up. Here is my three year-old daughter's take on Week 6 of the NFL. Enjoy.

Just to summarize (and document), her picks are as follows:

1. Bears (-8) over Giants

2. Chiefs (-10.5) over Raiders

3. Eagles (-1.5 over Bucs

4. Packers (-3) over Ravens

5. Lions/Browns - Pass (I somehow left this game out)

6. Panthers (+2.5) over Vikings

7. Texans (-7) over Rams

8. Bills (+7.5) over Bengals

9. Titans (+13.5) over Seahawks 

10. Broncos (-28) over Jags - she did say Jags first, so we'll give her a flex game

11. Jets (+2.5) over Steelers

12. Niners (-10.5) over Cardinals

13. Saints (+2) over Patriots

14. Cowboys (-4.5) over Redskins

15. Chargers (PK) over Colts

We'll have our Thursday Night Preview and Pick up tomorrow and the rest of our picks Thursday morning. Enjoy your week everyone.

Vinny and Marco

NFL Picks Week 4: Niners vs Rams ATS Pick & Predictions

NFL Picks Week 4: Niners vs Rams ATS Pick & Predictions

Colin Kaepernick and the 49ers are 3 point favorites on the road against St. Louis with the total set at 42.

By: MaChez, TSZ Expert

Can you believe it’s already the fourth week of the NFL season? Four more days and we’ll already be a quarter of the way through the season.  Now if I had told you the 49ers would be 1-2 after three weeks, would you have ever believed it?  What if I told you the Rams also would be 1-2? Yeah, I guess that’s a little more believable.

The two teams face off in St. Louis on Thursday night  in what should be an exciting game with season-long implications.  If San Francisco loses, they will be sitting at the bottom of the division with only one less loss than they had all of last season.  If St. Louis loses, they will be sitting in the same place with trips to Seattle and San Francisco still on their plate.  Last season both match-ups went to overtime with one ending in a tie so we can expect a close one on Thursday.

San Francisco 49ers

In the last two weeks the 49ers have been outscored 56-10 and whispers that started after Week 1 about the offense being too complicated for Kaepernick have grown louder and louder.  No one can fault them for losing in Seattle, but only putting up three points is embarrassing .  And then to lose by 20 at home?!  Something is off.  Vernon Davis’ likely return from injury will help, but the fact that Anquan Boldin is their only other weapon is troubling.  Things on defense don’t look great either after two straight weeks of several costly penalties.

St. Louis Rams

After starting the season with an exciting win against Arizona, the Rams have lost two straight on the road to the Falcons and Cowboys.  In both games they gave up 31 points but only in the Falcons game did they mount any kind of comeback.  Last week against Dallas they scored only seven and gave up six sacks after not allowing a single one since last season.  The Rams offensive line has been one of their strong points and will need to revert to their old ways to give Sam Bradford a chance against San Francisco. 

The Spread

Despite San Francisco’s recent struggles, Vegas has made them three point favorites with the total set at 42.  Although bets are split 50/50 on the total, handicappers seem to agree with San Francisco as big favorites with 77% of them giving up the points.  But here at the SpreadZone, we are the 23%!

The Rams will be facing a defense in San Francisco that has given up an average of 28 points this season and will now be without LB Aldon Smith, NT Ian Williams, and the heart of the defense, Patrick Willis.   Bradford has always played well against the 49ers, and like in his game against ARI, should have no problem putting up points at home.

On the other side of the ball, similar to what we’re seeing in Washington, defenses have picked up on the 49ers read-option and are limiting the effectiveness of both Kaepernick and running back Frank Gore.  St. Louis should continue this trend and will force Kaepernick to throw against one of the better CB tandems in Cortland Finnegan and Janoris Jenkins.

Last season, St. Louis handed Kaepernick the starting job by knocking out Alex Smith and then handed him his first loss three weeks later in St. Louis.  In that game, Kaep was only able to manage 13 points, threw a ball away in the end zone for a safety and overthrew a pitch that was recovered for a St. Louis touchdown.  Expect Janoris Jenkins and the loud dome to pose problems for Kapernick again and the Rams to cover the spread with a likely straight up win.  However, this won’t be the defensive battle we saw the last time these two teams faced off - take the OVER.

Prediction:     ST. LOUIS RAMS (+3) over San Francisco 49ers, OVER 42 


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NFL Week 3: Chiefs vs Eagles Picks & Predictions for Thursday Night Football

Kansas City Chiefs vs Philadelphia Eagles: Picks, Predictions, and More...

The Eagles are 3 point favorites at home against the Chiefs, with the total set at 49.5.

By: MaChez, TSZ Expert

Uh oh. Guess what day it is?!  Guess. What. Day. It. Is. Yep, that’s right. It’s hump day.  As of 10am this morning we’ve crossed that proverbial hump and are closer to the start of Week 3 than we are to the end of Week 2.  Finally...those 34.5 hours were tough. 

Starting our weekend off tomorrow night, we have the long awaited return of the Andy “The Walrus” Reid to Philadelphia.  As pointed out in the intriguing Tenfascinating walrus/Andy Reid facts, “Walrus whiskers are not hairs. They are sensitive, tactile organs. Andy Reid whiskers are also sensitive, and it hurts him when you make fun of him on Twitter.”  What does that have to do with this week’s match-up against the Eagles? Nothing, so let’s move on to something that does.

Eagles

Chip Kelly has led the Eagles to a 1-1 start and all signs points to his offensive style working in the NFL.  Michael Vick looks better than ever (301 YPG), LeSean McCoy has averaged over five yards per carry, and the offense is averaging 477 yards and 31.5 points per game.  Unfortunately, Kelly forgot the Eagles aren’t playing the likes of Fresno State and every second he shaves off the offense is a second he’s giving to the NFL offense he’s facing.  San Diego shined a glaring light on that issue last week when they ran 21 more plays than the Eagles and had a time of possession (TOP) of 40 minutes.  The offense gets all the publicity but the fact that the Eagles were still in a game with such lopsided TOP says a lot about the defense.

Chiefs

Down in Kansas City, Andy Reid has led the Chiefs to a 2-0 record with wins against Jacksonville and Dallas.  Obviously Jacksonville doesn’t count and Dallas was a one point win at home.  The Chiefs are winning in a completely different way than the Eagles - playing traditional, boring offense and shutting down teams on defense for 248 yards (3rd) and 9 points (2nd) per game and a league leading 3.8 yards per play.  On offense they’ve been what you would expect from an offense led by Alex Smith: 26th in yards per game, 16th in points per game, etc, etc.  So far their longest play is 31 yards.  Oh how I wish I could watch that every week...

The Spread

Vegas has set the line at -3 favoring Philly and the total at 49.5.  I don’t think betting trends really apply here with each team having new coaches and playing at the same time last week.  What I think this really comes down  to is tempo of play.

In last week’s game, the Eagles showed just how dangerous their offense could be, putting up 1.52 points per minute of possession (PPM) while giving up 0.82 PPM on defense against the Chargers.  On average, the Eagles put up 1.21 PPM (3rd in the NFL) while the Chiefs only put up an inflated (because of the JAC game) 0.76 PPM.  For comparison, SD puts up 0.95 PPM and WAS puts up 0.86. 

As San Diego proved in Week 2, if you’re going to win against Philadelphia, it’s going to have to be in a shootout, and the Chiefs just don’t have the firepower to do so.  If the Eagles score at their average rate (1.21 PPM) and the Chiefs do the same (0.76 PPM), the Eagles would only need 25 minutes and 11 seconds of offense to win by 4 and cover the spread.  So far they’ve averaged 26:11 TOP, even with a crazy low 19 minutes last week. 

I could go on and on with different stats and PPM scenarios, but I think you get the point I‘m trying to make: Eagles = Fast. Chiefs don‘t.  Philly’s quick offense will force the Chiefs to throw (like WAS and SD had to) and do you really see Alex Smith, the guy who put up less yards this season than Vick put up last week alone, doing anything significant offensively?  

The Chiefs are being overvalued because of their 2-0 record and the Eagles are being undervalued because of their loss and what appears to be but is not a time of possession problem.  The Eagles are also at home during Prime Time and better conditioned physically to handle the short week. Chip Kelly won’t make the same clock management mistake two weeks in a row and the Eagles will beat the Chiefs handily.

Prediction:   PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (-3) over Kansas City Chiefs   

                    Under 49.5