NFL Picks Week 16: Bengals vs Broncos ATS & So Much More

Season to Date: 37-33 ATS 

Last Week: 3-2 ATS 

Top Picks to Date: 10-4 ATS 

When I was growing up, I divided my time between the north coast of California and the west coast of India. During my stints in the latter, until the age of six years old, we lived in a fishing village without electricity, running water, or the subsequent gluttony that comes with having those amenities. Kerosene lamps flickered in the houses after sundown as we read, played, ate, and without the constant hum of some sort of technology or appliance in the background. No television, no stereos, no refrigerator, and also nothing taken for granted.

 

Each morning, the Ice Man (this is way before Top Gun) would push his bike through the thick sand to our house and deliver a block of solid water which we would place inside our Styrofoam box/fridge. After that, the Veggy Lady, the Fruit Merchant, and the Fish Walla (no not the nineties band) would cruise the neighborhood selling their wares and we'd purchase what we needed for the day, or at the very most the weekend. There was no stock-piling or hoarding of food, just a simple day-to-day life of appreciation and serenity. 

Last week, I got to revisit those memories with my five year-old daughter when a tree on our property took out a power line, a phone line, and left us without Internet for a week even after the other two were restored. School was cancelled in our district, and we got to have an extra family day as we watched the rain come down and the PG & E trucks drive by. That, dear readers, is why there was no Friday Five last week. I suppose I could driven to town, but I didn't feel like trying to crank out a post in the bustle of a one-Starbucks town environment. Not my bag, baby. We'll try to make it up to you with our Week 16 picks.

Football is getting exciting. Playoff births are up in the air across the board are up for grabs and while the usual suspects in the AFC (Pats, Broncos, Colts) have punched their tickets, but only the Arizona Cardinals in the NFC have secured a spot in the second season. Does this mean teams with added motivation are guaranteed to win this weekend? Or are teams like the Niners finally going to relax and cut loose a bit in hopes for inviting the Chargers to join them for an off-season fishing trip? Let's take a look. 

NFL Week 16 Friday Five

#5. Denver Broncos (-3) over CINCINNATI BENGALS: The Bengals have a terrific home field advantage, but unfortunately they have a quarterback who can't win prime time games. Andy Dalton is 2-9 ATS under the lights which, coupled with the fact that Denver is still fighting for the number one seed (although I think Manning would be thrilled if the Colts got it and he could play indoors in the championship), and we're giving up the small chalk on the road.

#4. Detroit Lions (-9) over CHICAGO BEARS: This will feel like a home game to the Lions. They are giving up about 17 points/game on the season and will be facing a Jimmy Clausen who is 1-9 SU/3-7 ATS in his professional career. We don't roll with big lines very often, but the Lions are on their way to an NFC North title and they will be making a statement in that regard on Sunday.

#3. Indianapolis Colts (+3) over DALLAS COWBOYS: From Week 13 on, the Cowboys are 3-19-1 ATS in their last 24 games. Couple that with the injury to DeMarco Murray and this is easy money.

#2. CAROLINA PANTHERS (-3.5) over Cleveland Browns: Even an injured Cam Newton is better than an inexperienced Johnny Football. The Panthers could still win their division by winning out and having the Falcons and the Saints lose just once. Amazing.

#1. SAN FRANCISCO FORTY NINERS (-1) over San Diego Chargers: The seventy-two percent of the public backing the Chargers obviously thinks that motivation will play a role in this game. But this is the NFL, a league full of players and coaches who have worked their asses off to survive the competition for as long as they have because even when they're not playing for the playoffs they're still playing for their futures. As unappealing as Jim Harbaugh is as a human being, he is a motivator of men. We think he will promise one million dollars of his exit contract to Michigan to anyone on the Niners who scores a touchdown. Take the Niners this evening at #1. 

Go Wolverines and May the Spreads Be With You All,

Vinny and Marcox

NFL Picks Week 1: Ravens vs Bengals Pick ATS

NFL Picks Week 1: Cowboys vs Niners Pick ATS

What's up TSZers? Vinny and Marco are back in the house - quite literally my living room - and we're ready to rebound from our sophomore slump and take the NFL handicapping community by storm. Truth be told, if you'd asked me about the future of TSZ two days ago, I would have told you I was ready to trade in my keyboard for a career as a commentator, a used car mogul, or insatiable crack fiend. Marco was on same page - especially about the crack - and together we were scripting our farewell to gambling tweet-stagram.

That's when the fan mail began to pour in. Just one or two at first but then..third one. And although it turned out to be spam, the heartfelt concern for men with erectile dysfunction coupled with the fact that I drafted my fantasy team, purchased the Sunday Ticket, and remembered how much I really love football, gambling, tipped the scales towards our return. So here we are, everyone, and to the work ethic and family values police in our minds we say, "C'mon, Man." After all, it's only 17 weeks... We promise we'll be productive, loving, and useful employees/fathers/husbands come playoff time.

 

As a compromise, however, because we don't really want to get fired from our jobs or families, Marco and I are doing this Phil Jackson-style - no road games, better, taller, elitist leather chairs, and we're only committing to our formerly successful Friday Five until we see how our time management/obsessive compulsive tendencies reveal themselves as the weeks unfold. For now, lets' get to some freakin' picks for Pete's sake. 

We know, Mr. Rose, that the other side says, "I should have bet on football." 

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NFL Week 1 Friday Five (from least to most confident)

5. DALLAS COWBOYS (+5) over San Francisco Forty Niners: Why the heck not? The Niners looked terrible in the pre-season, and the only thing their defense has been able to lock up these days is its own players...in handcuffs. Sure the Cowboys are notoriously unpredictable and often slow to start, but this line opened up at -3.5 and was pushed as high -5.5 by Dallas Cowboys haters around the world. The Niners are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games, finished last season 12-4 SU, but let's face it - their offense has been underwhelming since Kaepy took the helm. The Cowboys defense will certainly help them look better, but it will only be enough for a marginal victory. Meanwhile, the Cowboys have struggled at home going 6-13 ATS in their last 19, but they're 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home openers. The value is in the home dog in this one, and we're rolling with the 'Boys at number five.

4. San Diego Chargers (+3) over ARIZONA CARDINALS: This should be a fun game with second year head coaches Mike McCoy and Bruce Arians both demonstrating their capabilities with solid 2013 campaigns. The Chargers made the playoffs and beat the Bengals in the Wild Card last season while the Cards fell just short in a much more competitive NFC. Although these two teams had a field goal contest a couple of weeks ago - a 12-9 preseason Chargers win - the stakes will be much higher on Monday Night. Unfortunately for Arizona fans, the Cards have been a disappointing 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 MNF games, and although San Diego's best defense is holding onto the ball on offense, they are one of the more dominant Prime Time teams, covering the spread in 4 of their last 5 Monday night games along with  8 of their last 10 as road dogs. Once again, take the points and the Bolts at number four.

3. BALTIMORE RAVENS (-1) over Cincinnati Bengals: Oh boy, the AFC North is back in full effect and we have eight, grueling, defensive, trench wars to look forward to over the course of the season. This one will set the trend and although both clubs have the makings of potent down field passing attacks, they also have quarterbacks who can be prone to taking sacks. The Ravens’ Joe Flacco was sacked 48 times a season ago, while the Bengals’ Andy Dalton was taken down 46 times in 2012. This game will likely come down to the team that hits on a big play. With history as our guide, we will avoid voting for a member of the Bush family, but we will always vote for the home team in this series as they have covered 8 of the past 9 meetings. That's almost as money as betting against the Bengals on the road (2-6-1 ATS in their last 9). Take the birds at number three.

2. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (-10) over Jacksonville Jaguars: Forget the fact that Marco and I both drafted Nick Foles as our fantasy starting quarterback this season. No, we don't co-GM and do everything in our lives together. That would be ridiculous. And that would also be baseball, where a first round playoff bye has earned us the week off just in time to really enjoy football. What you should remember, however, is the fact that the Eagles wins in 2013 came by an average of 14.5. The OVER 51.5 might be an even better play here, but we'll bet on the Eagles to reverse their 6-21-1 ATS trend at home this season with a three touchdown win over the Jags.



1. MIAMI DOLPHINS (+5) over New England Patriots: Yesterday at the grammar school we were playing Feelings Charades where kids pick emotions out of a hat and try to act them out for the class. One student - who concerns me a bit at times - picked "Excited," then just stood there and shook his head at guesses like "Nervous," "Annoyed," "Mad," He's pretty straight-faced, with an edge of unpredictability. I said, "Wow. Looks like we have the Bill Belichick of grammar schoolers. Nobody laughed. On the other side of the ball, I saw a headline that read "Joe Philbin wants Miami to score more." Sounds like a formula for success to me. It also sounds like he might be the coach Popavich of the NFL who gets annoyed with reporters and just gives them dumb, obvious answers. I like that in a coach, and I think Philbin and PHIlbiNs make the playoffs this year. That begins with defending their home field in a Week1 upset victory. 



So there you have it - our first Friday Five of the 2014-15 season. Please light up the comments section below to tell us just how right/wrong/crazy/stupid/funny/annoying/brilliant we are. Or just a welcome yourselves back to the TSZ Community for another year. Remember, everyone...We may not have it all together, but together we have it all.

May the Spreads Be With You,

Vinny and Marco

NFL Picks: Niners vs Packers, Chargers vs Bengals Picks ATS

NFL Picks: Niners vs Packers, Chargers vs Bengals Picks ATS

Last Week's Record: 11-5 ATS (not bad for Whacky Week 17)

Week 17 Friday Five: 4-1 ATS

Friday Five Record Since Week 14: 15-4-1 ATS

Record Since Week 10: 68-49-5 ATS 

Season to Date (for the sake of integrity): 113-132-9 ATS

Yesterday we posted our picks for Saturday's Wild Card showdowns in Indianapolis and Philadelphia, and just to recap we took the road team and the points in both cases. The lines in those games with three points being given to the home team suggest that the oddsmakers believe the Colts/Chiefs and Saints/Eagles are equals on a neutral field. We believe in both cases that the playoff experience of Andy Reid, Alex Smith, Sean Payton, and Drew Brees neutralize the fields and help Kansas City and New Orleans on to the Divisional Round.



Wild card weekend continues on Sunday as the San Diego Chargers - the last team to make the post-season ball - visit the red hot (at home) Cincinnati Bengals and the San Francisco Forty Niners head to Green Bay to renew their relatively old and storied rivalry. Let's handicap these bad boys shall we?

CINCINNATI BENGALS (-6.5) over San Diego Chargers: Last year my Psychic mother-in-law claimed it was The Year of the Bird and to her credit the Ravens won the Super Bowl, and the Seahawks and Falcons went deep into the playoffs. This year, however, her love of the Panthers had her boasting that it was The Year of the Cat. All year her focus was on Carolina while Cincinnati quietly put together the best home record in the NFL (tied with the Pats and the Saints). Will two cats meet in this year's Super Bowl? I doubt it, but two cats will definitely be playing in the Divisional Round next week.


      "Front Door Cover, my friend." 

Sorry, WannaBeBallers, we just don't think the Chargers have enough to pull off the upset in Cincinnati. Although the Chargers have been decent on the road (4-4 SU/4-3-1 ATS), finishing strong with division wins against the Chiefs and the Broncos, this is the playoffs and there will be no sneaking up on a team, especially one that has compiled an 8-0 SU/ATS home record winning games by an average of almost 17 points. The Bengals beat the Chargers earlier this year in San Diego by 7, and although San Diego will compete early, but the Bengals will wear them down and pull away in the second half.

Picks: Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5) and the OVER 47

San Francisco Forty Niners (-2.5) over GREEN BAY PACKERS: The game of the weekend (and they all look pretty damn good) kicks off last on Sunday as the Niners and Packers meet each other for the fourth time in two years and second straight post-season. Historically, Green Bay has dominated the series going 7-3 SU/5-4-1 with the OVER hitting at a 7-3 clip. Since Jim Harbaugh's arrival in the Bay Area, however, the Niners are 3-0 against the Packers, winning games by an average of almost 10 points.



If Alex Smith were still behind center for the Niners, we would be making this pick without hesitation. He's no Tom Brady in terms of talent, but he's practically as robotic when it comes to consistency in any environment. To us, Colin Kaepernick is the wild card for the Niners wild card weekend hopes. If he can make quick decisions and not force the action, the Niners will be fine and win this game easily. If the Packers can force some turnovers and build a lead, then San Fran might be in trouble.

Of course the weather will be a factor, but you know what they say in the NFL, "When it's cold, pack your electric blankets and your defense." At the end of the day, Aaron Rodgers will make a valiant effort to take Green Bay to the divisional round, but will ultimately fall short as the Niners win by four 31-27

Picks: San Francisco Forty Niners (-2.5) and the OVER 46.5

Good luck as always and may the spreads be with you all,

Vinny and Marco