Packers vs Bears Pick ATS NFL Week 4

Last Week's Record: 4-1 ATS

Season to Date: 9-6 ATS

Top Confidence Picks: 3-0 ATS

I know it's early, but this already feels way better than 2013. Remember that time when Marco and I foolishly purchased a domain name, built an entire website, charged a nominal TSZ Insider's fee (which our generous readers were kind enough to indulge), and then proceeded to pick fewer games correctly than Psychic Granny C? Well, we do. And trust me, so does my mother-in-law. "I wouldn't mind doing picks again this year, Vinny," she said during a preseason breakfast, "but I don't want to embarrass you again on your website."



I don't get annoyed often, but when I do...it's at her. And for the record she - much like the rest of our team - ended up under .500 on the season, so the only embarrassing thing is that we were all worse than both my four year-old daughter (10-6 ATS based on mascot preferences) and - what do you call that thing - oh yeah, a coin.

Now to be fair - regular season record aside - Psychic Granny C is on a pretty good run of post-season predictions. Early in 2012, she declared it The Year of the Bird when Seahawks began their rise to power and the Ravens and Falcons ended up in their respective conferences championships. Granted there are a lot of bird mascots, but then she followed it up with a mid-season prediction that Carolina would win the Super Bowl the next year based on their shade of blue. I scoffed, and promised to take her to a fancy dinner if they even made it to New York, and then I proceeded to rib her with questions like, "Are you sure it wasn't Titan blue or Indianapolis blue? Or maybe a panther eating something blue?"



Sure enough, the once mediocre Panthers rolled to a division title, a first-round bye, and a first round exit last year. It was enough for me to buy her a un-fancy breakfast.



If anyone's interested in placing a wager, this Granny C has yet another prediction. It started out with a vision around Week 11 of last year when she said, "Vinny, I'm not sure what this means..." (all of her visions start out like that), "but I saw a team with a round logo on their helmet, and I think they're going to win it all next year." Rolling my eyes and sighing, I reluctantly Googled NFL team logos and the closest thing she could identify to her vision was the Pittsburgh Steelers. Booooo.



At the time, equally annoyed by the fact that she had consistently beaten us with her picks the first six weeks of the season and that Carolina Panthers were well on their way to the playoffs, I said, "No way I'm buying you dinner for the Steelers. They win the Super Bowl every five years. Call me when you have a real vision." I'm sure I apologized for my tone and delivery, but I stand by the statement.

Now let's get to some (slightly) more researched picks.

Coffee Thank You's: This post is generously sponsored by our buddy from the north Francis M. who is about to be gifted with a second child on October 26th. Congratulations to you and your family Francis, and feel free to write some posts during the early sleepless nights ahead. Also, please post photos for our readers in Texas. : ) Too soon?

If you'd like to sponsor our next post, please feel free to donate the caffeine necessary to write such nonsense. Just click the Coffee for Vinny and Marco button. Or come back and do it after you go 5-0 with our picks this week.

Speaking of sponsorship. We cannot emphasize enough our belief that GAMBLING IS JUST ANOTHER WORD FOR EXPENSIVE GUESSING, but if you're going to EXPENSIVELY GUESS then please check out our friends at 1Vice. They have great bonus offers up to 300% free play, 40% cash bonuses, and 30% gamblers insurance for the unlucky guessers among us. So please, please don't waste your hard earned money on gambling, but if you do - click on the link to the right (the picture below doesn't work) and let us earn a commission and become officially professional. Thanks, you're the best.



NFL Week 4 Friday Five: As always, our Picks are Bold and HOME TEAMS are in CAPS.

5. BALTIMORE RAVENS (-3) over Carolina Panthers: This, my friends, is what we affectionately call an "Opposite World" pick. The Carolina Panthers are an impressive 8-1 ATS as road dogs since 2011 and the Ravens are a paltry 1-4 ATS at home in their last 5. The public is split pretty evenly on this one, but we like the experience and coaching of Baltimore along with a fired up Steve Smith playing his old team to give the Ravens a 21-17 win. If you like Totals, the last 12 Ravens home games have stayed under along with 14 of 20 Panthers games. Just sayin'...



4. Green Bay Packers (-2) over CHICAGO BEARS: I know, I know - why are we going back to the well that ruined our perfect week last Sunday. Because that's what gambling tells us not to do. If Aaron Rodgers tells me to relax, do you know what I do? I relax. Green Bay has just dominated Chicago in recent seasons, winning four in a row at Soldier Field and seven of eight overall, as well as covering six of the last seven meetings. Tough trends to go against. Yeah, we said that last week in Detroit, but this is different, isn't it?



3. Oakland Raiders (+4) over Miami Dolphins: Another delightful sell for the NFL in Europe. What is the marketing director thinking. Can't we send the Seahawks and the Broncos. Is this some kind of punishment for teams missing the playoff cut - like the football B league in England. I don't get it, but we'll roll the dice with the Raiders in this one, although the UNDER is looking appealing.



2. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (+3.5) over New England Patriots: The first thing I ever learned about gambling was to never bet against a Prime Time dog. The last thing I learned was "Well, that depends..." This week, we'll take the points at home in Arrowhead because the Pats have allowed Brady to be pressured a league high 44 times (6 sacks, 10 hits, and 28 hurries) while the running game has yielded just 3.5 yards per carry. Kansas City, on the other hand, has the third best pass-rush in the game. Take the points.



1. Atlanta Falcons (-3) over MINNESOTA VIKINGS: We'd like this one better in a dome, but with rookie QB Teddy Bridgewater making his first career start against the 12th ranked pass defense, the Falcons are the play. Atlanta nickelback Robert McClain has kept opposing QBs to a 44 passer rating while the Vikings are allowing pressure in almost 30% of their offensive plays. Give up the field goal and go 5-0 this week. 



May the Spreads Be With You All,

Vinny and Marco

Spurs vs Thunder Game 3 Pick - 5/25/14

I just realized that the beautiful post I wrote yesterday about the Heat being unbeatable in Game 3 at home and the Kings finally taking series lead before Game 7 never got published. Actually, truth be told I had the Kings losing at home in order to rebuild their come from behind mojo. C'est la vie - if it doesn't go to print, then I can't count the stats. That's the sports betting gods for you, and just so you know I'm being honest, I also took the UNDER in the NHL game. Please know, I did not mean to drop the ball, but in my haste to drive seven hours round-trip to a wedding I must have forgotten to press "Publish." The good news, I have my intro paragraph written already...

I can't remember who's playing, but I'm pretty sure the NBA playoffs continue this weekend with a pair of critical Game 3's. And since we still have $100 of risk-free, no obligation, no commitment money to play around with thanks to our friends at 1Vice (click on the logo to the right for your money), we may as well lay a few dollars on some NBA and NHL action.

Poetry right? Or clear evidence I was in a hurry. Or neither. Or both.

NBA Playoff Record: 38-37-1 ATS

NHL Playoff Record: 1-0-1 

Basketball

OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER (-2) over San Antonio Spurs: Ibaka or no Ibaka - which is why it's hard to find an open line right now - if the Dallas Mavericks can beat the Spurs three times then surely the Thunder can find a way to win the all-important Game 3. If they don't, they can start packing for the off-season, and we expect an MVP and MVP2 performance from the OKC superstars. All they need after that is a little bit of help from a third scorer, one of the best home crowds in the league, a brilliant defensive effort, and a letdown game by San Antonio. We think  they get those things. We'll give up the small chalk with OKC.



Hockey

Montreal Canadians @ New York Rangers Game 3: We don't have a great feel for hockey, so I've started doing some research to explore the various ways you can bet on a game. It's not so different from baseball with runs being given to the dogs or taken away from the favorites. We believe the New York Rangers find a way to win this game at home, but coming into the series the Canadians were the favorites, had a better regular season, but sadly lost their premier goalie. All that being said, we like the Puck Line (just looked it up) in this game. Take The Canadians (-190) PUC and we'll stay away from the total because it will probably yield a 3-2 push again. 


 "Yes - lost by less than two. Sweet." 

May the Spreads Be With You All,

Vinny and Marco

Monday Morning Quarterback: Ode to a Painful September

My dear readers,

After much soul searching I have made a monumental decision about the future of The Spread Zone. And by "soul searching," I mean an impulsive thought on my way back from work, and by "momentous" and "future," I just mean right now. The decision - rather than hide my head in the sand or come up with new self-effacing ways to show my humility - was to write a poem about the first four weeks of the 2013 NFL Season. Without any adieu, here is:

Ode to a Painful September

With four weeks behind us and twelve weeks to go
in a season that's been like a David Lynch show.
It's time to deflect all your worry and doubt
by handing some Mid-Mid Season grades out.



Let's fly up northeast to Seattle's abode
where the Seahawks have learned how to win on the road.
They're well on their way to the title they seek
Provided they're playing Matt Schaub every week.

The Niners, the Rams, and the Cards to be clear
will be looking up at the end of the year.
And though trading Smith to the Chiefs made me sick
S.F. will be fine with the young Kaepernick.



And down The Bayu Sean Payton is back,
leading the Saints strong, offensive attack
while the Falcons poor start might get their coach fired
I'll bet Tony's son wishes Dad stayed retired

The Year of the Cat, says wise Granny C
but the Panthers are mired at a poor 1-3
And the Bucs, it just sucks, can't win but don't mind
'cause their defense is great when it's not getting fined.



Up north the young Bears got a spank on the tush
by a much better cat and revived Reggie Bush
Being a Vike fan must feel like a hassle,
perhaps that will change with "The Jeckyll" Matt Cassell

At the end of the year I think Cheese Heads stands tall
'cause they cut every player who fumbles the ball
They'll beat the up the Lions next week in Green Bay
to take over first, and that's where they'll stay.



The Giants and Redskins, now both former beasts
in the once feared division, the NFC Least
With Eli's poor passing, V. Cruz just can't dance
While Washington should give Kirk Cousins a chance.

And although Kelly's offense was great with The Ducks,
it seems that with Philly it really plain sucks.
With their competition, the Cowboys are fine
to win this division at seven and nine.



In the AFC West, Alex Smith, Andy Reid,
are leading the Chiefs to a wild card seed.
The Chargers are Chargers, with highs and with lows
And being a Raiders fan still really blows.

The Broncos are putting up Madden-like stats
In two weeks they'll hang 90 on Jacksonville's Cats.
I'm starting to see that there is no good reason
to bet ATS against Denver this season.



At the top of the East, the young Patriots sit,
and last night they proved their defense is legit.
The Dolphins are proving to be a great bet,
but I'm still not quite there on the bandwagon yet.

The Jets have surprised us with .500 ball,
but away from MetLife, they can't win at all.
And Buffalo, Buffalo - where doth though roam,
also just winning the games that they're home.



And off in the South, the strong Titans have heart,
which has them in first with a 3-1 start
Tied with the Colts who've done more of the same
Thanks to a new and improved running game.

In Houston four quarters is never enough,
with three OT games out of four, man that's rough.
And the Jacksonville Jaguars? They're really quite lame,
scoring about six point seven a game.



The Browns are in first after only four games
while Hoyer and Cameron are both household names
The Ravens appear to be hitting rough seas,
and yesterday Flacco had 5 I N Ts

The Bengals are good, but still have ups and downs
beating up Packers but losing to Brown.
and finally, Pittsburgh, with all its mistakes
are still in the running for the Clowney Sweepstakes.



And, of course there's The Spread Zone that's down in the dumps,
With Vinny and Marco both in Sophomore Slumps.
Losing is awful, it feels like a curse,
Let's face it, the truth is it can't get much worse.



So October is near and although it feels daunting
We look to Week 5 to do some un-haunting
I wanted to quit after Sunday night's game,
and find a new hobby with far, far less shame,

And much like the Giants, who's start is the worst
We still only feel we're two games out of first.
So on we persist, because that's what we do,
as people, as writers, as gamblers, too.



I hope Dan P. hasn't given up on us yet, because I was remiss not to mention how much I appreciated your e-mails last week. Keep 'em coming. For TSZ Insiders who might feel like they're not getting their $17 worth, I don't blame you, but there's good news on the horizon. Beginning Week 9 we're going to have a Friday Five Contest through the end of the season with cash prizes, coffee mugs, or something else worth your investment. Hopefully the Saints cover tonight and give us our first .500 Friday Five, otherwise we might just use our fan picks for the second half of the season.

Happy Monday?

Vinny and Marco