NFL Picks Week 1: Eagles vs Jaguars ATS Pick

NFL Picks Week 1: Cowboys vs Niners Pick ATS

What's up TSZers? Vinny and Marco are back in the house - quite literally my living room - and we're ready to rebound from our sophomore slump and take the NFL handicapping community by storm. Truth be told, if you'd asked me about the future of TSZ two days ago, I would have told you I was ready to trade in my keyboard for a career as a commentator, a used car mogul, or insatiable crack fiend. Marco was on same page - especially about the crack - and together we were scripting our farewell to gambling tweet-stagram.

That's when the fan mail began to pour in. Just one or two at first but then..a third one. And although it turned out to be spam, the heartfelt concern for men with erectile dysfunction coupled with the fact that I drafted my fantasy team, purchased the Sunday Ticket, and remembered how much I really love football and gambling, tipped the scales towards our return. So here we are, everyone, and to the work ethic and family values police in our minds we say, "C'mon, Man." After all, it's only 17 weeks... We promise we'll be productive, loving, and useful employees/fathers/husbands come playoff time.

 

As a compromise, however, because we don't really want to get fired from our jobs or families, Marco and I are doing this Phil Jackson-style - no road games, better, taller, elitist leather chairs, and we're only committing to our formerly successful Friday Five until we see how our time management/obsessive compulsive tendencies reveal themselves as the weeks unfold. For now, lets' get to some freakin' picks for Pete's sake. 

We know, Mr. Rose, that the other side says, "I should have bet on football." 

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Seriously - we don't recommend gambling, but if you're going to do it we may as well get an affiliate advertising credit for referring you. Now for f's sake can we please get to the freakin' point????

NFL Week 1 Friday Five (from least to most confident)

5. DALLAS COWBOYS (+5) over San Francisco Forty Niners: Why the heck not? The Niners looked terrible in the pre-season, and the only thing their defense has been able to lock up these days is its own players...in handcuffs. Sure the Cowboys are notoriously unpredictable and often slow to start, but this line opened up at -3.5 and was pushed as high -5.5 by Dallas Cowboys haters around the world. The Niners are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games, finished last season 12-4 SU, but let's face it - their offense has been underwhelming since Kaepy took the helm. The Cowboys defense will certainly help them look better, but it will only be enough for a marginal victory. Meanwhile, the Cowboys have struggled at home going 6-13 ATS in their last 19, but they're 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home openers. The value is in the home dog in this one, and we're rolling with the 'Boys at number five.

4. San Diego Chargers (+3) over ARIZONA CARDINALS: This should be a fun game with second year head coaches Mike McCoy and Bruce Arians both demonstrating their capabilities with solid 2013 campaigns. The Chargers made the playoffs and beat the Bengals in the Wild Card last season while the Cards fell just short in a much more competitive NFC. Although these two teams had a field goal contest a couple of weeks ago - a 12-9 preseason Chargers win - the stakes will be much higher on Monday Night. Unfortunately for Arizona fans, the Cards have been a disappointing 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 MNF games, and although San Diego's best defense is holding onto the ball on offense, they are one of the more dominant Prime Time teams, covering the spread in 4 of their last 5 Monday night games along with  8 of their last 10 as road dogs. Once again, take the points and the Bolts at number four.

3. BALTIMORE RAVENS (-1) over Cincinnati Bengals: Oh boy, the AFC North is back in full effect and we have eight, grueling, defensive, trench wars to look forward to over the course of the season. This one will set the trend and although both clubs have the makings of potent down field passing attacks, they also have quarterbacks who can be prone to taking sacks. The Ravens’ Joe Flacco was sacked 48 times a season ago, while the Bengals’ Andy Dalton was taken down 46 times in 2012. This game will likely come down to the team that hits on a big play. With history as our guide, we will avoid voting for a member of the Bush family, but we will always vote for the home team in this series as they have covered 8 of the past 9 meetings. That's almost as money as betting against the Bengals on the road (2-6-1 ATS in their last 9). Take the birds at number three.

2. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (-10) over Jacksonville Jaguars: Forget the fact that Marco and I both drafted Nick Foles as our fantasy starting quarterback this season. No, we don't co-GM and do everything in our lives together. That would be ridiculous. And that would also be baseball, where a first round playoff bye has earned us the week off just in time to really enjoy football. What you should remember, however, is the fact that the Eagles wins in 2013 came by an average of 14.5. The OVER 51.5 might be an even better play here, but we'll bet on the Eagles to reverse their 6-21-1 ATS trend at home this season with a three touchdown win over the Jags.



1. MIAMI DOLPHINS (+5) over New England Patriots: Yesterday at the grammar school we were playing Feelings Charades where kids pick emotions out of a hat and try to act them out for the class. One student - who concerns me a bit at times - picked "Excited," then just stood there and shook his head at guesses like "Nervous," "Annoyed," "Mad," He's pretty straight-faced, with an edge of unpredictability. I said, "Wow. Looks like we have the Bill Belichick of grammar schoolers. Nobody laughed. On the other side of the ball, I saw a headline that read "Joe Philbin wants Miami to score more." Sounds like a formula for success to me. It also sounds like he might be the coach Popavich of the NFL who gets annoyed with reporters and just gives them dumb, obvious answers. I like that in a coach, and I think Philbin and PHIlbiNs make the playoffs this year. That begins with defending their home field in a Week1 upset victory. 



So there you have it - our first Friday Five of the 2014-15 season. Please light up the comments section below to tell us just how right/wrong/crazy/stupid/funny/annoying/brilliant we are. Or just a welcome yourselves back to the TSZ Community for another year. Remember, everyone...We may not have it all together, but together we have it all.

May the Spreads Be With You,

Vinny and Marco

NFL Picks Wild Card Weekend: Chiefs vs Colts & Saints vs Eagles Picks ATS, Over/Unders

Happy New Year, everyone. The Spread Zone has now officially transitioned into its third year of existence and although the first half of 2013 was rough, we finished on a solid winning run, including a 15-4-1 ATS in our Friday Five Confidence Picks the past four weeks which was enough to leapfrog us into third place in the First Annual Texas Todd I Can't Believe I Sent Vinny & Marco Any Money Please Can I Win Some Back contest. We, however, will be passing along our third place homemade t-shirt to the next best entrant, Mr. Paul Brennan of Oxford whose random team generator should make us all feel like idiots for spending any time at all trying to "research" winners or us "gut feelings" when it comes to handicapping football. The results of the contest are posted below:

Name		Week 11	Week 12	Week 13	Week 14	Week 15	Week 16	Week 17		TOTAL TO DATE
Maneesh		30	14	6	11	0	14	5		80
Dan P.		20	6	9	12	13	6	8		74
Vinny & Marco		16	6	8	7	13	10	12		72
Paul		9	15	5	6	15	6	15		71
Michael		17	5	10	5	13	11	6		67
Nav		10	7	8	10	9	10	12		66
Cheddar Packs		16	8	6	9	9	8	9		65
Stan		11	15	9	13	5	6	5		64
Archibald		24	3	8	11	1	3	7		57
Cellar Dweller		13	7	6	1	7	8	11		53
T-Dog		2	7	0	11	15	12	6		53
Jay		16	6	6	7	6	5	6		52
Airin Rodgers		6	7	6	10	12	3	2		46

Congratulations to:

First Place Winner: Maneesh with 80 points - $30 gift certificate

Second Place Winner: Dan P. with 74 points - $20 gift certificate

Fourth Place Winner: Paul B. with 71 points - aforementioned homemade TSZ t-shirt

And a hearty thank you to the rest who participated consistently with only 3-6 reminders per week. Kidding, of course. We really appreciate all of you that read, follow, poke fun at, and participate in The Spread Zone. If we were wealthy gambloggers, we'd send you all t-shirts. 

Coffee Thank You's: It's nice to have this section back. A warm, hearty thank you to Tony G. and Airin Rodgers for their generous contributions to our writing project in the form of Coffee for Vinny and Marco donations.

On to the football...

I don't know about you, but once I found out who was in the playoffs I was ready for them to begin. Trying to get my football and gambling fixes using bowl games like North Texas/UNLV or Rice/Mississippi State reminds me too much of college - when I tried to curb my drinking and partying by drinking Zima. Ultimately, it just took me more time and money to get drunk and start partying. Plus it was gross. Let's let the real games begin. 

Last Week's Record: 11-5 ATS (not bad for Whacky Week 17)

Week 17 Friday Five: 4-1 ATS

Friday Five Record Since Week 14: 15-4-1 ATS

Record Since Week 10: 68-49-5 ATS 

Season to Date (for the sake of integrity): 113-132-9 ATS

For those of you who were not with us last year, The Spread Zone was originally spawned from playoff success. Two years ago, when the Giants met the Patriots in the Super Bowl, Marco and I were simply pool participating football fans. We'd won some money over the course of the year, but our picks really started to heat up late in the season and in the playoffs. In fact, during the 2011-12 post-season our picks went 9-2 ATS, won us a chunk of change and ever-lasting resentment from a group of friends and strangers, and inspired us to collaborate on what has become the finest community of intelligent, literate gamblers I've ever met. Mind you, I'd never met any intelligent, literate gamblers prior to that. 

So, let's get to our NFL Wild Card Weekend Picks against the spread. If you're not a fan of reading but you love themes, then you'll be happy to know we're rolling with the road dogs on Saturday and the favorites on Sunday. As they always have been, our picks are bold and HOME teams are in CAPS. 

Kansas City Chiefs (+2.5) over INDIANAPOLIS COLTS: We liked this better when it was three, but the fact that 58% of the public is backing the Colts and the line is still moving towards the Chiefs tells us there's some sharp action going towards Kansas City. To be completely honest, I don't really understand what the public is thinking here. Sure Andrew Luck has been legendary at home since arriving in Indy going 13-3 SU/12-4 ATS since his arrival. This year, however, they only played 3 teams over .500 (Denver, Seattle, and Miami), went 2-1 SU/ATS, and all three games were played before Reggie Wayne went out for the season. At the end of the year, the perception is the Colts finished strong at home on a three game winning streak, but those game came against the Titans, Jags, and Texans with a combined 13 wins this year. 

The Kansas City Chiefs had 11 wins, and all five of their losses came against playoff teams - Denver and San Diego twice, and these very Colts two weeks ago. Kansas City has one of the best defenses in the league, which is a big part of the reason they were 6-2 SU/7-1 ATS on the road. It is very difficult to beat a team twice in the same year, which is why - along with the fact that the Chiefs have the more experienced coach and QB (not better QB, but Alex Smith just wins games), we'll take the points and put some cash on the money line, too.

Pick: Chiefs (+2.5) and the UNDER 46.5

New Orleans Saints (+2.5) over PHILADELPHIA EAGLES: We would have taken the points here no matter who was getting them. A home dog in the playoffs has a dangerous bite, but the fact that the Saints are getting points tells us that the Eagles are being slightly over-valued here because of the Saints inconsistency on the road and Philly's recent home blowouts. There's no denying just how bad the Saints were away from home - 3-5 SU/1-7 ATS. All their losses this season came on the road, but a closer look reveals that 6 of those 8 games were decided by a touchdown or less. Given the playoff atmosphere, the experience of Drew Brees, Sean Payton, and Rob Ryan, we like the Saints to throw in a few glitches on defense that might force Nick Foles to make some mistakes. 

My apologies to Eagles fans - please know there is no good reason for us to take the Saints. Philly has been exceptional at home of late going 4-0 SU/3-0-1 ATS and they are definitely the team with momentum. The Saints woes on the road is not a one-year phenomenon. In fact, they've lost all five road playoff games since 1980, including a recent, memorable loss in Seattle a couple years ago. Nonetheless, we're taking the points and hoping that trends are meant to be broken. 

Pick: Saints and the OVER 54 (Saints are 10-1-1 to the over in their last 12 post-season games)

Sorry to break up the flow, but please tune in tomorrow for our breakdown of the Sunday games in Cincinnati and Green Bay. 

May the Spreads Be With You All,

Vinny and Marco

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