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Monday, November 4, 2013

Bears vs Packers Pick ATS Monday Night Football

Bears vs Packers Pick ATS Monday Night  Football

The Packers are 10.5 point favorites at home against their rival Chicago Bears.

By: MaChez, TSZ Expert

This week the scheduling czars were nice enough to schedule all eleven games on Sunday without two teams with winning records.  This left me completely unenthused to write an article about any of those games so I decided to call an audible and write about the Monday Night Game, the only game this weekend featuring two teams over 500 and one of the greatest rivalries in pro sports: Packers vs. Bears.  Rodgers vs. Cut...McCown.  Lacey vs. Forte.  Cob...Jone...Fin...Nelson vs. Marhsall.  Matthe...Hawk vs. Brig...Bostic?  So maybe this rivalry isn't so exciting this year since it also features two of the most banged up teams in the league.  But the Bears need a win to stay competitive in the NFC North and these divisional games are always exciting.


The Spread

Although both teams are decimated, they are going in two different directions.  The Packers have won four straight while the Bears have lost three of their last four.  That coupled with this game being played in Green Bay is resulting in the Packers being favored by 10.5 points tonight with the total at 50.5.

Green Bay Packers

Since the preseason when Green Bay lost starting LT Bryan Bulaga to a season-ending injury, not a week has gone by when it doesn't seem like the Packers are losing yet another important player.  At this point their two first-round outside-linebackers, Clay Matthews and Nick Perry, are out on defense, while on offense they're missing three of Aaron Rodgers' top four receivers: Randall Cobb, James Jones, and Jermichael Finley.  Fortunately for the Packers, the O-line has discovered the winning-formula of keeping Rodgers healthy.  Despite all these injuries and guys that who had never taken NFL snaps before filling in at WR, Rodgers has the Packers rolling as of late and has inserted himself right back in to the MVP race after a slow start to the season.

Helping Rodgers stay the path is the emergence of a strong run offense and defense.  Rookie Eddie Lacey has finally given the Packers a reliable option running the ball and turned them in to the #7 running team in the league.  The defense meanwhile, with the return of Johnny Jolly, has finally learned how to stuff guys at the line, limiting opposing RBs to a total of 585 yards this year, good for fourth best in the league. Despite all the injuries, the Packers seem to have one of the most well-rounded teams in the league right now and will only improve as players return and young guys become more comfortable.


Chicago Bears

The Bears started out very promising, winning three straight to start the season under new coach Marc Trestman.  Although those wins were coming late in games, Cutler and the rest of the offense was clicking which helped accommodate for an aging defense.  But then the Bears hit a rough patch in the schedule with games against the Lions and Saints and things fell apart.  They've now lost three of their last four, with their only win coming against the Giants at home on Thursday night. In the meantime, Cutler tore his groin impregnating his wife for the second time and his out for at least a couple weeks.  Couple that with injuries to LB Lance Briggs and CB Peanut Tillman and the Bears are pretty thin right now.

Filling in for Cutler will be Josh McCown who actually played well in relief against the Washington BadNames.  A stacked receiving corps that includes Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery, Martellus Bennet, and Matt Forte really helped. So did a terrible Washington defense.  It will be interesting to see how well McCown plays with two weeks to prepare for this game.  On defense, the Bears aren't the same shutdown D they used to be.  They were still causing a lot of turnovers at the start of the season but have never held opponents to less than 21 points on the way to a 29.4 points allowed per game - good for fourth worst in the league. 


Prediction


The Packers have dominated this series since Rodgers became the starter.  He's never lost at home to the Bears and has won the last six against them.  In Chicago things get a bit shaky but tonight's game is in Green Bay where the Packers haven't lost since Week 1 of the 2012 season.  The Packers should win this game, but the question is by how much. 


According to VegasInsider.com, the Pack are 8-2 ATS when favored by double digits since the start of the 2011 season.  On top of that, they've won three of their last four by thirteen points or more and have won every game at home by an average of 16.3 points. Although this is a divisional match-up that could be unpredictable, give up the points in what should be an easy win for the Packers.

GREEN BAY PACKERS (+10.5) vs. Chicago Bears

UNDER 50.5

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