NFL Picks Week 12: Broncos vs Patriots Pick ATS, Plus 13 Mediocre Games

NFL Picks Week 12: Broncos vs Patriots Pick ATS, Plus 13 Mediocre Games

If you've been perusing the Internet long enough, searching desperately for someone, anyone to help you climb the ranks of your office football pool, claw your way back to even with your bookie, or make a fresh start in your new online gambling account, then you've probably figured out that anyone with a laptop, a cursory knowledge of sports, and an insatiable need to pronounce things definitively can slap a flag on the surface of cyberspace and claim their handicapping prowess. With flags all over the place - most of them red - you'll likely come across phrases like "Computer-based Accuscore," "Guaranteed System Picks," "Super Secret Hypoallergenic Ranking System," or "TSZ Insider Membership," designed to draw you into the used car lot where you'll either end up with a classic or a clunker depending on the day you stop by.



If there's one absolute I've learned in my sports betting journey thus far, it's that there are no absolutes. Should you always take a home dog in a prime time game when the altitude is higher than the starting quarterback's Wonderlic score? That sounds amazing, and you probably should - but not if you want to win money. If 90% of the public is betting on a team but the other team has 105 years of revenge motive because they've never won the Dull Gardening Sheer Bowl, should you automatically side with the minority because Vegas wasn't built on losing? Sounds like a great strategy - unless of course you ask Toledo Rockets fans or me who suggested backing them last night against the offensive powerhouse Northern Illinois Huskies. My point is this: when it comes to gambling there is no fool-proof, only fools.

Yesterday, for example, I was excited to use my laptop, my cursory knowledge of sports, and my insatiable need to pronounce things definitively to handicap other sports during the painfully long Tuesdays and Wednesdays between NFL football games. I started out 4-1 across three sports and laid down some seriously thought-out picks for tonight's NHL, NBA, and NCAA line-up. Not only did the Anaheim Ducks not win by 2+ goals, they lost the game. Not only did Toledo not manage to cover 10 points, they got routed in the second half. And not only did the Warriors fail to cover against Memphis, I failed to realize Stephen Curry was out with a concussion and that Golden State beating Memphis is the equivalent of the Cubs winning the World Series. It just doesn't happen. So, now I'm 4-4 across three sports and confident that I'm just saving my magic for our NFL Week 12 Picks.

So, come on by our Giant Red Flag of a Sports Betting Site where we use Duo-Linguistic Pontification Techniques - AKA talking it out with your buddy on multiple morning drives to work - plus Post-Hoc Ergo Proctor Hoc Statistical Analysis (AKA finding shit to support our picks) to give you the best odds of hitting 50% every single week. Kind of like we did last week.



Week 11 Results: 6-6-3 ATS

Week 10 Results: 12-1-1 (Remember that? That was awesome.)

Season To Date Results: These will be posted tomorrow after you've completely bought into our amazing free picks below.

Thursday Night Football

New Orleans Saints (-9.5) over ATLANTA FALCONS: We might consider backing the Falcons if this game were being played outdoors...on a slope...with the Saints always playing uphill...and a giant monkey throwing barrels at them the whole time.



But it's not. It's in a dome, where the deer and the Drew Breeses roam. This will feel like home to the Saints because Atlanta Falcons will be quiet, hoping the Falcons can lose their way to another top draft pick. Plus, the word we're getting from our fictional New Orleans Saints Insider is the injury to Drew Brees's neck sustained at the end of last week's game has only enhanced his capabilities of seeing over opposing defenses. We like the Saints and the UNDER because Atlanta can no longer score.





Sunday Football

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+9.5) over DETROIT LIONS: The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are still alive and well in their race for third place in the NFC South. The much-maligned Coach Schiano made some bold moves early in the season - and by bold I mean job and team chemistry threatening - dumping the franchise QB Josh Freeman and replacing him with the young, inexperienced, albeit extremely tall Mike Glennon. Disaster averted? Not really. The Bucs went on to lose their first 8 games of the season, but now have strung together enough consecutive victories (2) and showed enough chutapah to merit our confidence that they cover 9+ points against the Detroit Lions. Yes, we know their wins came against the Dolphins and the Falcons, but we're still taking the points and the OVER 48.5.

HOUSTON TEXANS (-10) over Jacksonville Jaguars: We rolled with Jacksonville last week right before they got rolled up by the questionably talented Arizona Cardinals. Have the Texans done anything to merit us giving up double digit points? Not at all. In fact, they're kind of the Atlanta Falcons of the AFC right now. This is much more a play against Jacksonville than a play for Houston. When you think about these teams as they were constituted at the beginning of the year, a 10 point line would not have surprised you. We're just saying the potential exists in Houston while in Jacksonville it does not. A couple of miscues, and this Texans defense will cover this line by themselves. Three of their last four meetings have gone UNDER the total, so we'll back that trend, too.


I don't know what this means.

GREEN BAY PACKERS (-5) over Minnesota Vikings: What I don't know about Scott Tolzien you could fit into...well, something large that holds lots of things. What I learned about Scott Tolzien three minutes ago, however, you can fit into a questionably well-written paragraph. Not only did Tolzien attend, play for, and start at the University of Wisconsin, but he also set the single season record for completions in his first full season as a starter with 211 and 2,700+ yards. The next year Tolzien led the Badgers to an 11-1 record, shattered the single season completion percentage record (74.3%), and almost won the Rose Bowl, losing 21-19 to a vaunted TCU defense. With all of this new knowledge I say to you, "Aaron who?" And then I remember, "Oh yeah, Aaron Rodgers." Fuck. But still, "Minnesota Who?" There is no resounded answer there that shakes my confidence - unless of course you want to talk Minnesota Lynx. Give up the points, and take the OVER. 

KANSAS CITY (-5) over San Diego Chargers: Let me say this - if the Chiefs had won last week in Denver, we'd be rolling with San Diego because the Chiefs might be looking past the Chargers towards the rematch. Having lost, however, Andy Reid's experience will help keep this team focused on this game and this game only. The Chiefs will begin a new streak of holding teams under 17 points and win this game going away. And by going away, I mean 16-10 - Chiefs and the UNDER. 



MIAMI DOLPHINS (+4) over Carolina Panthers: Are you serious? The Dolphins? Against the Panthers? Didn't you watch Monday Night Football? Aren't you drinking the Cam Kool Aid along with the genuine non-metaphorical beverage that is their amazing defense? The answers are: yes, yes, yes, yes, sort of, and definitely. The Panthers defense is amazing, and we can see them pulling out another 12-10, 6-4, 8-5 win this week, but we also know that the Dolphins are one of those teams that play the role of home dog extremely well. In fact, they haven't lost as a home dog since September of last year, beating teams like the Bengals and Seahawks while covering against the visiting Patriots. This is our risky pick of the week and we're damn proud of it. Give me the points and a good, old-fashioned Carolina UNDER.

CLEVELAND BROWNS (-2) over Pittsburgh Steelers: There's no good reason to take the Browns in this Battle for the Basement in the AFC North, but then again there's no good reason to take the Steelers. In a case such as this, we look at the line, ask ourselves who it's inviting us to take, and then pick the opposite. Why wouldn't you take the Steelers after their convincing home win over the Lions and the Browns blowout loss in Cincinnati? Points plus the obvious pick. The reason that sounds too good to be true is because it probably because it is. Pittsburgh hasn't covered a game in Cleveland since January of 2011 - and those were good Steelers teams. We'll give up the 2 and watch Cleveland win by 3 in an UNDER.



ST LOUIS RAMS (-1) over Chicago Bears: Okay, here's how I'm spinning this one. I'd like to tell you about Jeff Fisher's amazing record at Houston/Tennessee coming out of a bye week in a home game, but sadly he was only 4-3 ATS overall. However, when the line was +/-4 points, he was 4-2 ATS, and as an underdog, he was 2-0 ATS in that same span. Being a 1 point favorite at home is like being an underdog in the eyes of the oddsmakers. Therefore, the square of two sides of a right triangle are equal to the square of the hypotenuse, and the Rams win and cover this game because there's just not enough rain, mud, or Bears fans to get Chicago's banged up roster motivated. We're taking the Rams and the OVER, which has hit in five of their last six home games. 

BALTIMORE RAVENS (-3.5) over New York Jets: The hook almost got us this week, but then we remembered just how good the Ravens are at home. In fact, they look like they might have won a Super Bowl recently when they play in the cozy, purple confines of M & T Bank Stadium where they are 3-1 SU/ATS this season with the UNDER hitting every time. From a handicapping perspective, we like both of those trends more than we like the New York Jets. Give up the points and watch the Ravens win by a touchdown 17-10. 



Tennesee Titans (+1) over OAKLAND RAIDERS: This is a classic, short-term memory, over-valued/under-valued match-up. It will be a defensive battle in Oakland this weekend, but ultimately the game will be decided by the offenses, in which case we like the slightly more talented Tennessee Titans. What the public remembers - Oakland with an impressive road win last Sunday. What they forget is it was against the Texans. What the public remembers about the Titans is - nothing because they last played in what feels like a million years ago because it was last Thursday. The Titans will be rested and ready as they look to cover their fifth straight road game this season. Take comfort in the single point, knowing the Titans will win by at least 3 in a pretty boring UNDER.

Indianapolis Colts (+2.5) over ARIZONA CARDINALS: This line is saying to us that the oddsmakers consider these teams to be equals. We, however, do not. Sure, if the Colts were playing solid football with their cushy lead in the AFC South, we might consider backing the Cardinals because Indy might consider resting players. As it is, however, the Colts will be playing their asses off to try to establish some offensive consistency. We'll take the better quarterback and the better coach in this little family reunion between Arains and Pagano, and we also like the OVER.

Dallas Cowboys (+2.5) over New York Giants: Ahhh, the NFL - chalk full of its story lines and subtexts, hopes and dreams, bandwagons and just plain station wagons. It would be easy for us to jump onto the magic carpet ride that has been the Giants four-game winning streak, joining with the faithful and the bandwagoners who believe it is the beginning of another Super Bowl run. And yes, Dallas with its porous defense is a beatable team. The only reason we're backing the Cowboys this week is that this game is being played in Week 12 rather than Week 17. If it were a must-win, we'd bet against the 'Boys, but as it is, we'll take the points, the rested team, and the OVER.

NEW ENGLAND (+2.5) over Denver Broncos: Let's keep this one simple and ignore the reunion of future Hall of Famers (and Wes Welker). Tom Brady owns Peyton Manning, boasting a 9-4 SU/8-4-1 ATS record during their NFL careers. Couple that with the fact that Brady and Belichick are 8-2 ATS as home dogs in the past decade plus, and we like the points and the OVER here. 

            
"One of these days I'll have a good defense. You'll see. It'll be different." 

No it won't, Peyton. It will be exactly the same.

San Francisco Forty Niners (-5) over WASHINGTON REDSKINS: Oh man, it is so tempting to take the points and the home dog in a prime time Monday Night football game with the Niners coming off a two-game losing streak and reeling in the public controversy that is Colin Kaepernick. Oh wait, no its not. We're rolling with the 97% of the public and trusting that the Forty Niners right the ship and earn their spot as a wild card in the NFC. This isn't a must cover, but it's a must win for them, so we'll give up the points and watch the unleashing of Colin Kaepernick. Isn't it about time they let Forest run?


Those are our stories this week and we're sticking with them. Come on back tomorrow and I'll have our Expert Grid up with and update from our TSZ Insider Friday Five Contest.

No bonus sports picks today, but if you'd like to mimic our amazing handicapping skills trying row sham bowing with a close friend or picking a scrap of paper out of a hat.

Good luck, everyone.

May the Spreads Be With You All,

Vinny and Marco

PS Remember, we work for coffee at The Spread Zone, so if you do well with our Coin Flips/Picks, come on back and let us know in the comments section or through the Coffee for Vinny and Marco Button on the top right of the screen. Good luck and enjoy your Sundays. Feel free to bookmark us and come on back tomorrow for more stuff AND things.