It's hard to believe this will only be the second Thanksgiving of The Spread Zone's young existence. A benefit of youth, however, is the ability to boastfully say things like, "Marco and I have never, ever, EVER lost a Thanksgiving Day football game." Translation: We were 3-0 ATS last season when we boldly picked the Detroit Lions (+3.5) to cover against the then mighty Texans, the young upstart Redskins (+3.5) to pull a turkey surprise on the Cowboys, and of course the Patriots (-6.5) as large favorites to absolutely destroy the New York Jets. A clean sweep followed by seventh consecutive +.500 week.
Oh what a difference a year makes.
I do believe we are the Atlanta Falcons of Internet NFL Handicapping. During the off-season I had to beg Marco to come out of retirement for one last season, then pay for his surgically repaired knee by taking a construction job while trying to rehab my nagging hamstring. Sadly, the overall results have left many a TSZ fan hoping we tank the rest of the season in order to draft Jeff Grant from SBRForum or Matt Rudnitsky from Sports Grid to take over our weekly picks. Others have just plain changed their favorites and replaced us with those guys already. Here is a quick glance at how our stats compare to last Turkey Day.
2012 ATS to Date: 90-71 (sixth straight +.500 week in a row)
Previous Week: 8-6 ATS
2013 ATS to Date: 70-98-7 (third straight +.500 week in a row)
Previous Week: 8-6 ATS (Eerie isn't it?)
2012 Friday Five Record: 19-7 ATS (we started mid-season)
2013 Friday Five Record: Unavailable due to sucking (weird, right?)
2013 Over/Under Record to Date: 101-74 (this is the Harry Douglas of our season)
For the loyal few who remain, however, we owe you a debt of gratitude for the encouraging e-mails, the witty banter, the ATS challenges, and your continued participation in the Friday Five Contest. I read recently that grateful people live longer, so let's all spend tomorrow appreciating what we have in our lives and give thanks to those around us who inspire with their words, their actions, or just simply their way of being. It was Maya Angelou who wrote, "They may not remember what you say. They may not remember what you did. But they will always remember how you made them feel." Or something really beautiful like that. On that note...
Coffee Thank You's: I haven't really been pushing the coffee donations this year for many reasons, but occasionally they pour in (see what I did there) nonetheless. The other day, on a sleep-deprived thanks to a restless toddler kind of morning, I awoke to a generously large cup of PayPal in my Inbox. Thank you, Francis. You just might find yourself with a few extra "style" points in the Friday Five Contest this week.
Okay, let's get to the football games. For our Thanksgiving feast tomorrow, Marco and I are going to enjoy a giant, deep-fried Underdog stuffed with Underdog and an Underdog Pie for dessert. Here's why:
Green Bay Packers (+7) over DETROIT LIONS: Three weeks ago the Packers lost their franchise quarterback and a tremendous amount of post-season hope to a collarbone injury. Last week, the Bears, Lions, and the Vikings (by imploding) returned hope the Packers with inexplicable losses and ties. Now the Pack could head into December in first place in the NFC North. I'm not saying they win this game, but when it comes to explaining why they cover sometimes it's better to be a great poet that steals rather than a good one who borrows. Here's what this goofy-looking guy at Vegas Experts had to say:
"Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 39-11 ATS mark for 78% winners since 1983. Play on any team (GREEN BAY) after 5 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers and is now facing an opponent after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse. This system has gone 11-2 ATS for 85% winners over the last five seasons. The emergence of rookie RB Eddie Lacy is perhaps the ONLY reason I believe the Packers can still make the playoffs."
The guy had me at proven system, but he then went on to describe how the Pack are just going to control the ball using Eddie Lacy and try to keep it away from the potent albeit self-destructive Detroit Lions offense.
TSZ Pick: Green Bay Packers +7 and the UNDER 50
Expert Team: 4-2 Packers
Oakland Raiders (+9.5) over DALLAS COWBOYS: The Cowboys are the better team, playing a more important game, in a festive holiday environment they are way more accustomed to than any other team in the league. Unfortunately, they are still the Dallas Cowboys and although they are much improved ATS this year covering 8 of 11 games, they are also facing another ATS juggernaut in the Oakland Raiders 7-4 ATS (4-1 on the road) who have been exceptional at covering near double-digit lines - mostly because they've been double digit dogs most of the year. The last time the Cowboys were favored by this much, they almost lost to the Vikings at home.
TSZ Pick: Oakland Raiders +9.5 and the OVER 45.5
Expert Team: 3-3
Pittsburgh Steelers (+3) over BALTIMORE RAVENS: Let's keep this one simple. Eight of the last nine regular season games between these two teams have been decided by exactly three points. That might be the most ridiculous stat I've ever found, so here's proof that it's true. Eight of nine. So essentially, it's a guaranteed, scientific fact that this game will be decided by a field goal.
| Date | Away | Score | Home | Score | Result | Home Spread | ATS | Total | OU |
| Oct 20, 2013 | BAL | 16 | PIT | 19 | L | -2.5 | L | 41 | U |
| Dec 2, 2012 | PIT | 23 | BAL | 20 | L | -6.5 | L | 37 | O |
| Nov 18, 2012 | BAL | 13 | PIT | 10 | W | 3 | P | 41 | U |
| Nov 6, 2011 | BAL | 23 | PIT | 20 | W | -3.5 | W | 41.5 | O |
| Sep 11, 2011 | PIT | 7 | BAL | 35 | W | -1 | W | 36.5 | O |
| Dec 5, 2010 | PIT | 13 | BAL | 10 | L | -3 | L | 39 | U |
| Oct 3, 2010 | BAL | 17 | PIT | 14 | W | -2 | W | 34.5 | U |
| Dec 27, 2009 | BAL | 20 | PIT | 23 | L | -3 | P | 43 | P |
| Nov 29, 2009 | PIT | 17 | BAL | 20 | W | -7.5 | L | 35.5 | O |
| Dec 14, 2008 | PIT | 13 | BAL | 9 | L | -3 | L | 34 | U |
Look a little closer and you'll find there was a tenth game that was decided by four points. Aside from the that, these teams are dead even - splitting the eight games 4-4 with the underdog going 4-3-1 in that span. It's pretty crazy. So, here's why we're backing the Steelers:
Outcome possibility #1: Ravens win by three we get the push with either team. Win-win sort of.
Outcome possibility #2: Steelers win by three we get the win with the Steelers but the loss with the Ravens. Win-win for Steelers backers.
Outcome possibility #3: Game ends in a tie, Steelers cover, we win again.
Outcome possibility #3: Game ends in a tie, Steelers cover, we win again.
Outcome possibility #4: We find a chump to bet us a zillion dollars that this game ends with a three point difference and laugh all the way to the bank.
TSZ Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers (+3) and the UNDER 40.5
Expert Team: 4-2 Ravens
That's all for tonight folks. Enjoy your celebrations, your friends, your families, your food, and your football.
May the Spreads Be With You All,
Vinny and Marco
No comments:
Post a Comment