I found tons of sites like ours - albeit much less entertaining and way more expensive - offering free picks as bait to their premium package. I was losing so badly, I decided to seek out other's advice, only to find that when I did, they would lose, too. I tried finding someone else on a losing streak like ours to see if two negatives do in fact make a positive in the world of sports betting. In one out of one cases in my scientific study, it does not. I lost again. I signed up for a free premium trial offer on NHL picks with the promise of a five star winner. "Hockey, eh?" I thought, then watched the San Jose Sharks lose in overtime to the Buffalo whatevers. I tried the free trial for two more days while these guys picked huge favorites and sent them to me in an e-mail the morning those teams lost. Their picks went 1-4 in my three free days. I unsigned up.
The moral of my short, two-paragraph story: Trust No One. Including Marco and me. And in my limited vocabulary, "including" means especially. Much like everyone out there, Marco and I come up with our picks together, and unless there are some glaring statistics to refute it, we find ones that support it. If, for example, a team is 4-6 ATS in their last 10, but 4-2 ATS in their last 6, which stat we include depends on which side of the equation we're trying to sell.
What I did find along the way, however, are a couple of useful tools. One is called touthouse.com which describes countless trends between teams, which can be helpful in determining both ATS and O/U picks. I also personally like Jeff Grant, who isn't afraid to take underdogs and recently recommended backing both USC as road dogs at Oregon State and Stanford last night at home against the Oregon Ducks. Both hit, both were bold predictions, and both earned me a few dollars and some respect towards his abilities. In fact, as you look around the Internet, you'll find way more supporters of favorites unless the lines are huge. I may make it a personal mantra to only bet dogs for a while because you always have two shots at winning.
So in the wake of my recent losing streak here are my new personal gambling rules:
1. Read lots and forget more.
2. Watch lots of games to completion.
3. Look for compelling, game-changing trends.
4. Seek out underdogs to back.
5. Trust no one.
In order of confidence, I would probably invert those rules, which brings me to the all-important:
Texas Todd TSZ Insider Friday Five Win Your Money Back From the Stranger You Trusted results.
After the first week of play, Marco and I quickly realized that we have the best readers on the Internet. That's right, TSZ followers are so kind and empathetic of our recent struggles that more than 70% of them sucked right along with us last week. Here are the current standing standings after one week of play. Total points are out of 15, with your top confidence pick being worth 5 and your least being worth 1. We designed it this way to make it easier to catch up and separate the pack as the weeks go by
Name Total Points
1. Jay 9
Maneesh 9
Michael 9
Miles 9
2. Archie 8
Dan 4
Nav 4
3. Josh 3
4. Vinny/Marco 2
5. Cheddar Packs 1
Airin Rodgers 1
T-Dog 1
6. Cellar Dwellar 0
So, after one week, everyone's still in it. Once I get all the picks in today, I'll create a grid which includes them along with these rankings in one, colorfully attractive, place.
Send in your picks ASAP, and for those of you just reading along, check our recent posts for ours and MaChez's highly accurate Thursday Night Prediction along with the rest of our free Week 10 picks.
But remember not to trust a single word you read,
Vinny and Marco
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