It was almost a very black Friday here at The Spread Zone, but thanks to a late back door cover by the Raiders and a preview to Adam Sandler's next film The Longest Half Yard starring the Ravens and the Steelers, Marco and I managed to turn what looked to be an 0-3 ATS Turkey Day into a respectable 2-1 ATS and a side dish of rather boring 1-1-1 O/U.
On rare occasions Marco and I call last minute audibles on our picks. Sometimes we agree completely on the changes, but other times the conversations go a little bit like they did Wednesday evening.
Me: Hey buddy. How would you feel about switching to the Packers? I just have a feeling they're going to keep it close.
Marco: I don't know buddy. I just don't see it.
Me: Insert generic, random, pretty good sounding statistic or words like proven system with ensuing explanation.
Marco: Just do me a favor and YouTube Matt Flynn/Raiders and watch a couple of minutes. I'm pretty sure you'll change your mind. I'll tell you what, you can have the Packers if I can switch our Ravens pick to the Steelers.
Me: Sold.
I never watched the promised YouTube video, but I think the live game Thursday morning served the same purpose. Unfortunately, it was too late by then. The only saving grace was having Calvin Johnson on my fantasy team. When Marco and I are divided on picks we generally talk them out and come to a consensus. When we aren't, they usually split anyway. The results are almost as predictable as a Ravens-Steelers game. Marco saved me this time, but there was a moment early in the fourth quarter of that last game where I was cursing both of us for ruining our perfect Thanksgiving record. As it turns out, my cursing turned to cheers as the Steelers came back just far enough to cover the line and win my two remaining teasers.
Happy Thanksgiving Everyone.
Thanksgiving Day Results: 2-1 ATS
Week 12 Results: 8-6 ATS
Three and a Half Week Winning Streak Total: 28-14-3 ATS
Now that's more like The Spread Zone we know and love. Let's keep the momentum going and jump right into Sunday and Monday's line-up.
Tennessee Titans (+4) over INDIANAPOLIS COLTS: The Tennessee Titans are 1-9 SU/3-7 ATS in their last 10 division match-ups with the Indianapolis Colts. Three weeks ago, however, the Titans staked themselves to a 21-3 halftime lead before imploding and losing to the Colts 30-27. The capability of winning this game is there, especially considering the Indy woes on offense since losing Reggie Wayne for the season. The Colts have been outscored 3,027,003 to 12 the past three weeks and this is beginning to look like Andrew Luck's Mini-Sophomore Slump. He'll figure it out and the Colts will probably win at home, but it will probably only be by a field goal and it will probably come late. The Colts have gone from Sucking For Luck to sucking with him. Take the points and the OVER, which has hit at an 80% clip in Indy the past 5 games.
Expert Team: 4-2 Colts
Denver Broncos (-5.5) over KANSAS CITY CHIEFS: The Kansas City Chiefs are playing with home field advantage for home field advantage this weekend against the visiting Denver Broncos. Currently both teams sit atop the AFC West with 9-2 records, but Denver owns the tie-breaker by virtue of beating the Chiefs two weeks ago. The winner of this match-up will be in the driver's seat for both the division and a first-round bye in the playoffs. Both teams are dealing with injuries, but the Chiefs will be playing without linebacker Justin Houston, an important part of their defense. Pass rusher Tamba Hali will be available but is also banged up. With these important parts at less than 100%, we'll take the Denver offense to win by a touchdown. Give up the points and take the UNDER 49.5.
Expert Team: 3-3
Jacksonville Jaguars (+7) over CLEVELAND BROWNS: Remember when the Jacksonville Jaguars couldn't score? Of course you do, because they still can't. What they can do, however, and what they've been improving at each week is playing defense and running the ball. After flirting with success earlier this year, the Cleveland Browns have returned to being...well, the Cleveland Browns, which means they shouldn't be favored by a touchdown over anyone. We don't know or care who's playing quarterback this week, we'll take the points and the UNDER 40.
Expert Team: 5-1 Jags
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+8.5) over CAROLINA PANTHERS: Here are six words I never thought I'd write this year: The Bucs are on a roll. After starting the season with eight consecutive losses and as many starting quarterbacks, Tampa Bay has rattled off three straight wins, capped off by an impressive road win in Detroit last weekend. Carolina, on the other hand, is the hottest team in the NFL and will be looking for their eighth straight win on Sunday. The Panthers have been finding all sorts of ways to earn victories the past two months and we think they'll do it again, but not in blowout fashion. We'll take the points in a division game and the UNDER 41.5 which has hit in five of Carolina's last six games.
Expert Team: 4-2 Bucs
MINNESOTA VIKINGS (-1) over Chicago Bears: The Bears is the obvious pick here. They have more to play for, more offensive weapons, and two stellar players on my first place fantasy football team. Unfortunately, they have giant holes on defense, and are 2-4 SU/1-5 ATS in their last six games in a dome dating back to 2011, including a 21-14 loss in Minnesota last season. The Vikings have been awful this year, but they did win and cover their last home game and Adrian Peterson has been playing more like the former league MVP the past few weeks. We'll roll the dice with the Vikes and another OVER 48.5 between these two teams.
Expert Team: 4-2 Bears
Arizona Cardinals (+3) over PHILADELPHIA EAGLES: The 7-4 Arizona Cardinals head to Philly this weekend to play a game with tons of playoff implications. The Cardinals are fighting for a wild card spot while the Eagles are in a race to the 8 wins it will take to win the NFC East. Arizona has been a very, very good home team but have struggled on the road this year going 2-3 SU/3-2 ATS - beating bottom feeders Jacksonville and Tampa Bay before they started playing well. The Eagles, on the other hand, had been a terrible home team until last week when they finally broke their losing streak with a win over the Washington Redskins two weeks ago. In a game such as this one we have some concerns about how the Cardinals will travel, but you know what they say in the NFL - when you're on the road, pack your defense. We'll take the points and anticipate a push and an UNDER 48.5.
Expert Team: 4-2 Cardinals
Miami Dolphins (+2) over NEW YORK JETS: The Jets look terrible of late while the Dolphins look competitive. This line feels a little fishy because New York has played its best football at home, but until the Jets announce that they have a solution to the Gino Smith problem (tons of interceptions very few touchdowns) we'll bite, take the points, and the UNDER 38.5 in what promises to be the ugliest game of the week.
Expert Team: 4-2 Dolphins
BUFFALO BILLS (-3.5) over Atlanta Falcons: The Bills play well at home. The Falcons no longer play well anywhere. I'd like to say Atlanta is a sneaky pick, but at this point wouldn't you just tank it and go get yourself some defense for the future? I would. Give up the points and watch Atlanta flail yet again in a Bills win UNDER 45.5
"It's been that kind of year."
Expert Team: 4-2 Bills
New England Patriots (-7.5) over HOUSTON TEXANS: If anyone can come up with a good reason to back the Houston Texans in any game ever again, please e-mail us and we'll include it in the write-up. Were Arian Foster still playing, we admit we'd be tempted to take the points, but as it is we'll give up as many points as this line moves and watch the New England Patriots breathe a sigh of relief (for escaping last weekend) all over the Texans defense. Take the Pats and the OVER.
Expert Team: 5-1 Patriots
SAN DIEGO (PK) over Cincinnati Bengals: The Chargers are one of the surprise teams of 2013 - much like the Bengals were two years ago. Now, with a couple of playoff appearances in a row under their belts, teams get fired up to play them. Couple that with the fact that San Diego is in a seventeen way tie for the last Wild Card spot and you've got yourself a value play on the home team, which is essentially being considered a dog if you take into account the standard field goal given to the hosts. We think San Diego takes advantage of the rusty Bengals and puts up points early, then fends them off in a closely contested UNDER 48.5.
"Hey P-Dog, I'll throw 2 picks if you do, 'kay?"
Expert Team: 4-2 Chargers
ST LOUIS (+8.5) over San Francisco Forty Niners: Last year this game ended in a tie, and in our humble opinion the Forty Niners were better then and the Niners were worse. Jeff Fisher has his defense playing inspired football which has translated to their offense looking even better than it did when Sam Bradford was behind center. This is a pretty big line considering it's a division rivalry game and the fact that the Rams are 7-2 ATS against the NFC West in the Fisher Era. Until Kaepernick shows us he can play well against good defenses, we're going to keep laying the points and collecting the wins. Take the Rams, the points, and the UNDER 45.5.
Expert Team: 4-2 Rams
New York Giants (-1.5) over WASHINGTON REDSKINS: If there's two things we've learned over the course of the 2013-14 season, it's to expect the unexpected and that the NFC East really, really blows. When two shaky, unreliable teams meet without much to play for except a little bit of pride and their jobs with other teams next year, we'll take the less valued team getting points at home. Enter Washington Politically Correct Skins. Give up the small line with a side of OVER 48.5 in what promises to be a shootout.
"If football doesn't work out, there's always break dancing."
Expert Team: 5-1 Giants
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-4.5) over New Orleans Saints: Here's a good Jeopardy question for you: When was the last time the Seattle Seahawks won and covered a home game coming out of a bye? Answer: 1995. Russell Wilson was six years old and I think Pete Carroll was playing for that team. A better question: When was the last time the Seahawks hosted a game coming out of a bye? Remarkably, the answer to that question is 2004. Seattle has been historically terrible coming out of the bye posting a 6-18 SU/5-18-1 ATS record in 24 tries, but this is obviously not your great-great-grandfather's Seattle Seahawks, so throw those useless stats out. What is important, however, is that the New Orleans Saints are not the same team on the road, posting a 1-4 ATS record this year eking out wins against the Bucs and Falcons while losing to the the Jets and the Patriots. Sprinkle in a little cold, northwest weather, and we'll take the Seahawks and the OVER which has hit in 17 of those 24 post-bye games.
Expert Team: 3-3
Good luck this weekend, everyone.
May the Spreads Be With You All,
Vinny and Marco
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Happy Betting.
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