Week 10 Record: 12-1-1 ATS (Yes, seriously)
Week 10 Record Using Sunday's Lines: 14-0 ATS (The Holy Freakin' Grail)
Week 10 Over/Under Record: 10-4
Season Record to Date: Who Cares? We just went 14-0 ATS:
When I was in college, one of my closest friends used to caution me that when you have expectations the best you can get is even. He'd also tell me that "Expectations are premeditated resentments" and that "an alcoholic's bottom is when his life falls apart faster then he can lower his standards." Then he'd go on a week-long bender, ruin his most current, dysfunctional relationship, and lose another crappy part-time job. Knowing he desperately needed those platitudes in his life, I never refuted them or challenged him by saying, "Dude, your expectations must be pretty lame," or "You just need to upgrade your wishful thinking list," or "Have you ever considered the possibility of staying in Alcoholics Anonymous?" Eventually and somewhat miraculously, he finally did stay, which resulted in his becoming one of the most positive, balanced, inspiring people in my life.
I thought about this friend Monday night after the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defeated the Miami Dolphins, rounding out our Week 10 NFL Picks totals listed above. "Why did it feel so empty?" I wondered. Was the result of my lofty expectations the equivalent of shooting par? Did I suddenly resent myself and Marco for sucking the past nine weeks? Did I just need a good alcoholic bender and resulting legal, interpersonal, and professional problems to truly appreciate what we'd accomplished?
Perhaps all of the above, but what I realized over the course of the next few days is that once again the destination is secondary to the journey. The driving force behind the Spread Zone has always the community of like-minded, degenerate gamblers we've managed to attract; people like you and me who continue to share in their victories, commiserate in their defeats, but never waver in their loyalty and their willingness to get back on the ride no matter how hard it threw them off. A week ours will no doubt attract some new attention from passers-by looking for a quick fix or a sure bet, much like our 9 weeks of adversity likely drove hundreds of readers away. The loyal few who remain, however - much like the fans of Maroon 5's debut album Songs About Jane - will one day nostalgically pronounce, "I knew Vinny and Marco when..." The only difference between us and them, is while we just took a week off, Maroon 5 has never ever stopped sucking.
That one was for you MaChez.
The moral of my somewhat uplifting/depressing/what-the-F introductory paragraphs is that The Spread Zone has risen, fallen, and risen again thanks to all of you who take the time to scan the amazingly insightful prose in search of the bold and CAPITALIZED NFL Week 10 Picks Against the Spread. Don't lie, I'd do the same thing if I were reading your article. When the 12-1-1 ATS word hits the streets and the droves come to TSZ mining for gold and spreading their Old World diseases, we now know who the natives are and we know that without you all of this would just be a very weird Man Journal. Now let's talk football.
Thursday Night Football
Indianapolis Colts (-3) over TENNESSEE TITANS: Finally - a kind of, sort of good Thursday Night Football game. Both of these teams are coming off disastrous games last week, with the Colts getting absolutely routed at home by the 10 point underdog St. Louis Rams and the Titans adding insult to injury by losing their franchise quarterback for the season while simultaneously losing to the winless Jaguars. Last week was Indy's adjustment game to losing Reggie Wayne for the season, and although Ryan Fitzpatrick has started a few games for the Titans, this week will serve as Tennessee's emotional adjustment to having no chance of making the playoffs. Yes, their defense is still solid, but Andrew Luck won't have two games in a row like the one he had last week. This one feels like it might get out of hand late, so we'll take the Colts and the OVER.
"Dude, I really, really miss Reggie."
Sunday Football
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (+1.5) over Atlanta Falcons: This has been the conversation Marco and I have had every Tuesday since Week 4. We take turns defending the Falcons, so the names are interchangeable.
Vinny: I like whoever Atlanta is playing.
Marco: But they're getting...
Vinny: I don't even care. They could be getting a forfeit and their defense would still find a way to screw it up.
Marco: But they have to turn it around sometime, right?
That last question was meaningful and pertinent in Week's 5-7. It no longer means anything. Take the home dog Bucs and watch a game much like their first victory against Miami on Monday. Tampa Bay and the UNDER.
BUFFALO BILLS (-1) over New York Jets: The Jets are in the playoff race. I repeat, the Jets are in the playoff race. In fact, if the season were to end today, they'd be heading to Indianapolis to play a winnable game against the Colts. It is going to be a wild final third of the season, and this is the time of year when motivation becomes an important factor to consider when handicapping the games. Since the beginning of the year, the New York Jets have had an us against the world mentality because they chose to go with G. Smith instead of GQ, which as it turns out was a good decision. The Bills, on the other hand, had no problem choosing their rookie quarterback - he just couldn't stay healthy. Now he's back and the Bills are at home where they've played great football this year. Had the Jets not just taken time off, we might back them, but Rex Ryan teams are 1-3 ATS coming out of the bye and this will be no different. Take the Bills and the UNDER.
Detroit Lions (-3) over PITTSBURGH STEELERS: The Steelers looked amazing last week...against the rusty rookie quarterback EJ Manuel fresh off the injured reserve list and a Buffalo Bills team that has 1 win in 5 road games. Way to go artist formerly known as a NFL Powerhouse. The Detroit Lions have a solid quarterback, the best receiver in football, and a front seven that will give Ben Rothleisberger an opportunity to showcase his Houdini skills. The Lions have won and covered 6 of their last 10 games against AFC opponents with the OVER hitting in 9 of those games. We'll go with the trends, give up the FG, and watch the rout.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (-3.5) over Washington Redskins: The Redskins gave up 30+ points to the Minnesota Vikings last week...on a Thursday...when players are still really, really tired from playing on Sunday. Nick Foles will continue his award-winning fantasy football season and likely bridge the gap to reality the Philadelphia Eagles leapfrog the Dallas Cowboys into first place in the NFC East and the fourth seed in the playoffs. This series has been dead even the past five years, but the truth is the only year that matters is this one. Philly beat the Redskins in Washington back in Week 1 and they'll do it again on Sunday. No brainer - back the Eagles to notch their first home victory and take the OVER.
CHICAGO BEARS (-3) over Baltimore Ravens: Man oh man, those Baltimore Ravens sure can play some hard-nosed football...at home...after a bye...against a division rival...when they're not supposed to win. On the road, however - completely different story. It goes kind of like this: Man oh man, those Baltimore Ravens sure suck ass at football...on the road...whenever...against everyone. Let's keep this simple: the Ravens are 1-6 SU/ATS in their last 7 road games. Chicago, however, hasn't fared much better as a home favorite, going 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7. The only thing that seems consistent is a small lean towards the OVER. So, our money will be on the Bears because they've sucked slightly less at home than the Ravens on the road and the OVER.
CINCINNATI BENGALS (-6) over Cleveland Browns: When the Browns and the Bengals come to town, no matter which town it is, you'd expect the Browns to lose and points to be at a premium. However, Cleveland has owned this series of late, winning the last two games outright, covering the last four, and not losing by more than a touchdown since 2011. We'll take the points, but we expect a few to be put up so we're leaning towards the OVER, which has been the recent trend in this series.
Oakland Raiders (+7) over HOUSTON TEXANS: Both of these teams will be undervalued coming off road losses last week. The Texans are having an awful season while the Raiders are meeting/slightly exceeding expectations at 3-6 and last place in their division. The Raiders have lost all four road games this season but they've managed to cover 3 of them and we see them doing it again this week. We'll take the points and the UNDER.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (+7) over Arizona Cardinals: The Arizona Cardinals are one of a handful of teams that play great football at home and pretty awful football on the road. The Jacksonville Jaguars are one of very few teams who play pretty badly everywhere. Nonetheless, the Cardinals are 1-9 SU on the road in their last 10 games and although they're 5-4-1 ATS, don't let that sway you because they've been the underdog in every single one of those games. Yes, the Jags are also 1-9 at home in their last 10, but they're 2-8 ATS and have been the underdog in their last 9 home games. Take the points here in what promises to be an ugly UNDER, which has hit in Jacksonville's last 7 home games.
San Diego Chargers (-1.5) over MIAMI DOLPHINS: Both of these teams are currently on the outside looking into the playoff picture, but a win this weekend could change all that. In a game between two statistically similar teams such as these, we look to the quarterback, the coach, the average time of possession statistics, and any recent highly publicized with likely residual in-fighting off field issues the teams might be dealing with. I don't mean to be vague or Incognito about the process, but let's face it - advantage Chargers on all four counts. We'll take San Diego and the OVER, which hits a lot in Dolphin home games.
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-12.5) over Minnesota Vikings: Yes, I saw Vikings compete with the Cowboys and beat the Redskins, but those defenses are historically bad and the Seattle defense is historically good. The Seattle fans are louder than a rocket ship crashing into a drum circle full of vacuum salesmen, and although the Vikings will still be able to lipread the words, "Run the fucking ball," they won't be able to put up enough points to keep up with a Seattle squad that's currently protecting home field advantage throughout the playoffs. Give up the points and take the UNDER.
NEW ORLEANS (-3) over San Francisco Forty Niners: This game feels like a gift from the handicapping gods to us, so it's probably a big, fat, trap. We are diving right in and spending the rest of the week coming up with an motivational insult for Colin Kaepernick to retweet at halftime. This will be closer than 80% of the public thinks, but it won't be three points close. Give up the field goal, watch the Niners keep up with their run game, but ultimately fall to 6-4 at the hands of Drew Brees and Co. The game will go OVER the total, too.
NEW YORK GIANTS (-5) over Green Bay Packers: I guess the signing of Matt Flynn is bringing this line down, plus the fact that the New York Giants run defense has been suspect at times. With any luck, Flynn's arrival will mean the miraculous recovery of Aaron Rodgers and Flynn taking a paycheck from the bench yet again. Until then, however, we don't trust the Packer defense enough to keep them in the games. Besides, a la a typical Giants fashion, they are now within striking distance of first place in the NFC Least, just two games behind Dallas and Philadelphia. Look for Green Bay to keep up the best they can, but the Giants to run away with this thing in the second half as they go OVER the total.
"Yeah, baby. Four teams are paying me now."
Kansas City Chiefs (+8) over DENVER BRONCOS: I wish I'd seen the movie The Blind Side, so I could make some jokes about Sandra Bullock's nose how many times Peyton Manning has been sacked since the Broncos lost Ryan Clady. Instead, in honor of my four year-old daughter's current level of humor, I'l have to resort to knock knock jokes.
Chiefs: Knock, knock
Broncos: Who's There?
Chiefs: Hali, Houston, and Poe
Broncos: Hali, Houston, and...WHAM.
The Broncos have a lot of advantages here including but not limited to a better quarterback, better offensive weapons, an interim coach with better hair, and altitude. What the Chiefs have is an intangible drive to prove themselves game in and game out. We'll be very surprised if they don't put enough pressure on Manning to cover this game, but not surprised at all if they find a way to win. Take the points and a surprising UNDER for the Broncos.
New England Patriots (+2.5) over CAROLINA PANTHERS: We love Carolina, and if they were getting even a single point at home on national television we'd snatch them up in a hurry. Couple the fact that Psychic Granny C saw their uniforms last year and predicted they'd win this year's Super Bowl with the fact that their defense gives up the second fewest points in the league and you've got a recipe we normally like to back. Unfortunately, they're playing the New England Patriots...coming out of a bye week...where Bill Belichick is three 317-1 against the spread (actually only 5-1 SU/ATS) on the road with fresh legs. I'm surprised the Panthers weren't getting more backing this week from the public, which means this line is probably pretty accurate. With the roll both of these teams have been on, we'll take experience in big games, the points, and the UNDER.
There you have it. Good luck out there, and please tune back in tomorrow for our TSZ Insider Friday Five Contest results update and Week 11 predictions. Scroll down for our Expert Team's Picks and the sad cumulative totals as they stand today.
Remember our motto: If you're not reading The Spread Zone, you're not wasting nearly enough time on the Internet.
Happy Betting,
Vinny and Marco
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