NFL Picks Week 1: MNF Giants vs Lions ATS

I know, it's only Monday and I'm back at the keyboard. What did we learn yesterday? Too much to squeeze into a five minute post before I head to my real job, but let's just say Marco and I didn't forget how to pull pieces of paper out of a hat. To be fair, picking NFL games before Week 5 is why we call gambling "expensive guessing," and even Tiger Woods would love shoot par these days, so a chance at a 3-2 week with the Chargers tonight feels like a win.



What feels even more like a win was the influx of e-mails from readers such as Jeff, Dan, John, Tony, and of course Manny the Great. I'm hoping Dally is still around to see that we picked his Cowboys yesterday, and I'm really hoping my former coastal neighbor Bobby is hear to watch the baseball Gaints come back and win the National League West this month. I'm sorry I missed you in Anderson Valley, buddy, but North Carolina was kind of like a nicer, richer, giant (even more historic) Boonville.

The reason I'm writing today is because I wanted to share some stats about tonight's games to explain why we're backing both underdogs. First of all, it's Week 1 which is every team's Super Bowl. Secondly, sometimes there are compelling stats that you have to buck or follow in order to win. Here's why we like the Chargers and the Giants plus the points.

*Don't forget to check out our friends at 1Vice. Just click on the link to the right. If you're on a losing streak or picked football like we did last year, you'll love their 40% gambler's insurance in September. Get back 40% of what your net losses if you call them on October first. That'll feel better when you pick the Lions or the Cardinals tonight.

Giants @ Lions–Giants started 0-1 last three years; they’re lost three of last
four road openers, with 12 of last 14 going over total. Detroit lost six of last seven
games last year, one of which was 23-20 (-9) Week 16 debacle to Giants; Big
Blue’s two TD’s were on 49-yard drive and defensive score. The Lions out rushed
them 148-41, still lost; that doesn’t happen a lot. Big Blue won last three series
games by total of 17 points; they won last five visits to Motor City. Lions have
new coaches, Giants have new offense that struggled to gel in preseason. Lions
won last three home openers, scoring 36.3 ppg; they’re 7-1-1 vs spread in last
nine HO’s, with last four going over total. Last three years, Giants are 11-6 as
road underdogs.

*That was a lot of stolen information, but we're bucking the 7-1-1 Lions and 
following the 11-6 underdog Giants. Take the points in Motor City. 

Chargers @ Cardinals-- San Diego is 9-3 in last dozen series games, winning
last three by 8-7-31 points; they won three of four visits here, but haven’t been
in desert since ’02, before dome opened. Chargers are 8-3-1 as road underdogs
last two years; they covered three of four vs. NFC LY, after being 0-8 previous
two seasons. Bolts won four of last five Week 1 road openers; five of their last
seven road openers went over total. Cardinals were 5-1-1 as favorites in Arians’
first year, after covering only five of previous 20 games when favored. Arizona
won six of last seven home openers (5-2 vs. spread); they‘re 6-1-1 vs. spread
in Week 1 last eight years. 

*If Arizona were the home dog, we'd back them - but in this case we're taking the
second year offense of coach McCoy and company. Take the points with the Bolts.

May the Spreads Be With You,

Vinny and Marco