NFL Picks Week 2: Broncos vs Chiefs ATS & More

This week on Facebook (which is sadly how most of the world's stories start these days), I was nominated to participate in #5daysofgratitude, which means five days of posting things I'm grateful for and nominating others to do the same. Most people, myself included, start with the basics - family, friends, employment, 99 cent taco night - but as the days go by and we reach a little deeper, that's where we find the real things that keep us going. Or, if you're like me, you kind of trail off on day four and hope nobody notices.



After almost completing the assignment, it occurred to me that if people were being honest - and by honest I mean not for the benefit of the 700 Facebook friends they desperately want to convince that they are thoughtful, young, attractive and funny - the generic stuff would probably slide down the list in favor of HBO mini series True Detective, the new medical marijuana laws in Colorado, or in my (red)neck of the woods really, really big tires on really, really small trucks.



I'm not judging, I'm just saying.

When it came to my list, I too wanted the world (AKA the three people who still check out my FB page) to know that I love being a dad and husband, but by day two I was already talking about the San Francisco Giants, and counting down the hours to a Monday Night Football double header.
Don't get me wrong. I love my wife and kid infinitely more than I've ever loved anything, but baseball, basketball, football - those have been my loves since before I even knew how babies were made.



Although I have every bit of faith my marriage will last and my love for my daughter will transcend her inevitable departure into the world, when I do grow old and my memory and facial recognition crumble in the wake of dementia or Alzheimers, I firmly believe it will be the things like Orange Fridays, the sound of the MNF theme song, or perhaps the drone of Vin Scully's voice resonating through his 114th year in the broadcast booth that will feel more like home than anything else.



I'm grateful I'm not that guy.

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Now let's get to our second Friday Five of this young season.

Friday Five Week 1 Record: 3-2 ATS* 

Friday Five Season to Date: 3-2 ATS

*I missed on a bonus pick on Monday, but Marco had nothing to do with that.

NFL Week 2 Friday Five Confidence Picks

5. Jacksonville Jaguars (+6) over WASHINGTON REDSKINS: If the Jaguars can jump out to a seventeen point lead against the Philadelphia Eagles before losing by two and a half touchdowns, we have no doubt they can lose to the Redskins by less than two field goals. This is definitely a play against the Redskins rather than for the Jags. Nonetheless, take the points.



4. Seattle Seahawks (-5.5) over SAN DIEGO CHARGERS: Let's face it. The Seattle Seahawks are still very good at playing football. Until proven otherwise, we're rolling with them to have dominating wins against everyone except maybe the Forty Niners. Give up the points at number four.



3. Kansas City Chiefs (+13) over DENVER BRONCOS: Two many points. The Colts caught the Broncos coasting in the second half and almost completed a comeback last week. No doubt that will be a wake-up call to Denver, but in a division game this early in the year with players still healthy and fired up, there's no way an Andy Reid teams goes to Mile High unprepared. Although the Chiefs are only 4-8 ATS in their last 12 division games, computer predictions (Marco and I flicking folded up papers through each others pointer fingers) have this game coming down to the wire with the Broncos eking out a 34-31 victory.



2. Detroit Lions (+2.5) over CAROLINA PANTHERS: The public is so ridiculous jumping all over the Detroit Lions just because they manhandled the clearly inferior New York Giants at home Monday Night. And by ridiculous, I mean they're absolutely right. We don't usually back Monday Night winners because they don't have value, but here's the stat that sold us: Carolina is just 5-15 SU and 5-14-1 ATS in home openers since entering the league, including 0-8-1 ATS as a favorite. Cam or no Cam, we'll take those odds, the Lions, and the points thank you very much.



1. Houston Texans (-2.5) over OAKLAND RAIDERS: Last week the Houston Texans handled their business at home against the Washington Redskins, sparking the "new team new season" conversations that come with early season success. Meanwhile, the Raiders went to New York and instilled hope in Jets fans that they might be blessed with another mediocre team this season. Dating back to last year, however, we all know both of these teams have struggled. The Texans are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games and the Raiders are 1-4 ATS/0-5 SU, and if my memory serves me correctly they were better at covering large spreads on the road than small ones at home. That being said, the UNDER 40 looks great. Officially, however, we're rolling with Harvard grad and current Wonderlic Score leader Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Houston Texans to move to 2-0 SU/ATS. It's going to be ugly.



I'm grateful that's late rather than never. Tell us what you're grateful for in the comments section. Be honest - we'll still be your Facebook friends.

May the Spreads Be With You,

Vinny and Marco