Yesterday, in the wake of TSZ's third straight losing week I received a very uplifting e-mail from Dr. Brennan sharing an extensive list of alternative names he and his family came up with for The Spread Zone. It was the perfect reminder that it is good to know I've got a friend...and Paul's got a rhyming dictionary.
The Spread your Legs zone: because you just got reamed.
The Bed Zone: you’ll want to curl up in despair.
The No More Bread Zone: sorry
The Head Zone: hold it and cry.
The Cred Zone: you’ll need credit with no more cash.
The Spread Loan: you don't need credit with us.
The Lead Zone: like lambs to the slaughter.
The Dread Zone: please no more picks.
The Fled Zone: should have run like the wind and saved your money.
The Shed Zone: our picks cure you from gambling.
The Misread Zone
The Bled Zone
The Spread Blown
The Spread Bone
The Spread Groan
The Spread Loan
The Spread Moan
To which I happily added:
The Unwed Zone: our picks will get you divorced.
The good news is we finally have a TSZ Expert who has eclipsed .500. The bad news is it's Psychic Granny C. If you'd like another silver-ish lining, Marco and I have improved by a single game every week of the season. Sadly, that lining started out 4-11-1 in Week 1. Our Friday Five did improve to 2-3 ATS last week, no thanks to the Green Bay packers late fumble and loss and the Minnesota Vikings just plain sucking, but our Over/Under Friday Five sank to 1-4. Somehow it feels like the grace of god that our Don't Touch List was mercifully under .500, too. Have all these numbers and percentages glazed your eyes over enough to read on? Good. Keep them glazed while I summarize our records to date:
Season to Date: 15-31-2 ATS
Psychic Granny C's Record To Date: 24-22-2 ATS
Season to Date Over/Under: 27-21
This week Marco and I decided to go back to some of our older methods for picking games, beginning specifically with a game called Name that Spread where we do the following:
1. Determine who we think is going to win the game without looking at the line.
2. Guess what the line is.
3. Compare our guess to the real line to see if we feel like we're getting value.
4. Ultimately determine which teams are being overvalued versus undervalued based on their recent performance.
5. Confidently make our picks regardless of past indiscretions.
6. Flip flop endlessly until someone calls 911 and has us both committed.
6. Flip flop endlessly until someone calls 911 and has us both committed.
TSZ Thank You's: Before I get to our picks, I'd like to bring back the TSZ appreciation paragraph from days of old. As if being a committed TSZ Insider weren't enough, Daniel Y. went above and beyond and made a generous coffee donation yesterday, lifting both my spirits and my blood-caffeine level to the appropriate levels. James I., David W., and even Josh sent the kind of encouraging e-mails I'd like to frame for future bad weeks and then hope I never have to read. Also, I'd like to let Jay know that his suggestions and thoughts have been taken to heart and will be the driving force behind our Friday Five this week. And finally a debt of gratitude to Francis M. for sharing his picks and letting us know that ours have finally brought him back to religion where he's been praying we get better...soon...please, god. Thanks everyone.
For those of you who have been reading along and studying The Spread Range measure, you'll understand that when teams do extremely well or extremely poorly against the spread, the oddsmakers have to adjust their lines accordingly to make those teams more or less attractive. Much like NFL teams almost never go undefeated during the regular season, they also don't go undefeated against the spread. In fact, over the past two seasons, only 8 of a possible 64 teams have eclipsed 10 ATS wins, while only 6 have lost more than 10. And only 2 of 64 have won or lost more than 11. That's a pretty obvious bell curve with almost 80% of the teams falling in the 6 to 10 win range.
Marco and I find that to be very important to keep in mind as we move forward through the season and as we made our NFL Week 4 Picks Against the Spread. As always, our picks are in bold and HOME TEAMS are yelling at you. Don't forget, if you're not a fan of reading awesome prose, then feel free to just go to our Experts Page and soak in some numbers.
San Francisco Forty Niners (-3.5) over ST. LOUIS RAMS: How good must it feel to be Alex Smith right now, sitting pretty at 3-0 on one of the biggest surprises in the AFC while the Forty Niners are mired in injuries, alcoholism, and potential disaster. San Francisco is coming off of back-to-back losses in which they were outscored fifty zillion to ten and the world is talking about how Kaepernick is just too dumb to run coach Jim Harbaugh's complex offense - except three weeks ago when he destroyed the Green Bay Packers...and the whole second half of last season when he took the Niners to the Super Bowl.
The Rams, on the other hand, are also undervalued, but are also only a fourth quarter comeback away from being 0-3. If DeMarco Murray can rack up almost 200 yards against the Ram's rush defense, don't you think Frank Gore and Kaepernick are going to have a field day? Besides, the Rams are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 division games while the Niners are 1-9 ATS in their last ten against the NFC West. Trends like that are way too obvious to lure us to the home dog. Take the Niners and the UNDER 43.
Expert Team: 4-2 Rams
The Rams, on the other hand, are also undervalued, but are also only a fourth quarter comeback away from being 0-3. If DeMarco Murray can rack up almost 200 yards against the Ram's rush defense, don't you think Frank Gore and Kaepernick are going to have a field day? Besides, the Rams are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 division games while the Niners are 1-9 ATS in their last ten against the NFC West. Trends like that are way too obvious to lure us to the home dog. Take the Niners and the UNDER 43.
Expert Team: 4-2 Rams
Pittsburgh Steelers (+1) over Minnesota Vikings: This game is being played in London which means two things: 1) there is no official home team and 2) the 12-9 result will feel like a high scoring affair to English footballers. Both teams are coming off home losses - the Vikings lost late to the Richardson-less Browns while the Steelers actually showed signs of offensive life against the Bears before miscues led to a Chicago rout. Although the Steelers will have about six hours less rest because they played the Sunday Night game, they are also a time zone closer to Great Britain which should give them just the edge they need to lose by less than 1. That's a well-disguised joke. Take the Steelers and although I made the low-scoring joke, I'm thinking this game is mandated by the league office to be an attractive, high-scoring affair. Take the OVER 43.5, too.
Expert Team: 5-1 Steelers
Expert Team: 5-1 Steelers
Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) over BUFFALO BILLS: The Bills impressed football fans across the country with a spread covering loss to the Patriots in Week 1 and a last second comeback win over the Panthers, but let's face it - the Baltimore Ravens are on a Screw The Oddsmakers Mission to Prove they are not only a better than .500 team, but capable of defending their division and conference crowns. Whether the latter is true remains to be seen, but in the meantime they will be playing with a giant chip on their shoulder which means they're not going to lose to inferior teams. Give up the 3.5 points and watch the Ravens rout the Bills like they were in Super Bowls XXVI through XXVIII. Sorry Buffalo fans, this one's going way OVER 42.
Expert Team: 5-1 Ravens
Expert Team: 5-1 Ravens
Cincinnati Bengals (-4.5) over CLEVELAND BROWNS:Although Browns back-up quarterback Brian Hoyer was born and raised in Cleveland, their native son and former Michigan State Spartan used up what little his soul was worth when he traded it to the devil for last week's result in the Metrodome. Yes, the Browns defense is legit, and yes they have a couple of receiver who can make things happen on offense, but the Cincinnati Bengals are way more potent than the Vikings and the Ravens and the Dolphins, and Cincinnati's front seven can hold its own against anyone in the league. Much like last week's landmark win over the Packers, the Bengal defense will dig the Brown a hole to deep to Hoyer themselves out from. Give up the points, take the OVER 42, and watch the resurrection of the poor Cleveland Browns fans media mania.
Expert Team: 3-3
Expert Team: 3-3
Indianapolis Colts (-9) over JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS: Listen, the Jags have been destroyed by the Chiefs and the Seahawks but only mildly embarrassed on the road against the Oakland Raiders. Personally, I thought they showed a lot of fight in the second half of the Seattle rout, and all the talk was about how the players bonded in their two week West Coast swing away from their families. Having coached JV high school girls basketball, I know the momentum that late night pizza, Facebooking, and pillow fights can lead to. This game is actually one of the four which we are taking Dan Gordon's recommendation that when The Spread Range reaches a critical difference of more than 10 points, take the underdog. Unfortunately we tried that last week against Seattle and got burned with a 20 point line. Although the Colts just came off a huge win and might be looking ahead to Seattle next week, we believe the infusion of new energy with Trent Richardson plus the Jags porous rush defense (167 yards/game) will keep the Colts focused enough to win and cover this one. Sorry Mr. Gordon, We'll give up the points and watch a Colts ten point UNDER 43 win.
Expert Team:
Expert Team:
HOUSTON TEXANS (+3.5) over Seattle Seahawks: This is the second Spread Range game. The Seahawks have won and covered all three of their games. Houston has not covered a single one. Seattle is coming off a blowout home win against Jacksonville while Houston is coming off a blowout road loss to the Ravens. Seattle is way overvalued as a result and the Texans are being seen as mediocre at best. As I mentioned before, no teams run the ATS table and we think Seattle's undefeated SU and ATS seasons end in Houston. Take the field goal and watch Houston win by 11 in an OVER 44 battle.
Expert Team: 4-2 Seahawks
Expert Team: 4-2 Seahawks
Arizona Cardinals (+2.5) over TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS: The Bucs used to be my blind spot because I liked coach Greg Schiano at Rutgers, my fantasy team lost single-handedly to Doug Martin one week, and I had Josh Freeman hair envy. Fortunately, Marco helped me see the light as the Bucs spiraled downhill throughout 2012, and no residual blindness carried over into 2013. The Bucs have been a team that has shown tremendous upside on defense but very little on offense. With wide receiver Vincent Jackson likely out and the Bucs decision to give back-up QB Mike Glennon his NFL debut, we're taking the Cardinals and the points, and predicting another Tampa Bay UNDER (41).
Expert Team: 5-1 Cardinals
NFL Starting QB and 7th grader, Mike Glennon
Expert Team: 5-1 Cardinals
NFL Starting QB and 7th grader, Mike Glennon
Chicago Bears (+3) over DETROIT LIONS: Personally, I think this is a game where a smart bettor takes the points. If the game were in Chicago, I'd probably take the Lions and the field goal. Slowly but surely Jay Cutler and Co. are catching on to Marc Trestman's offensive scheme and in the meantime their defense has stripping balls like...thongs off a strippers balls. The Lions finally broke the Curse of the Redskin which sounds even more racist than just Redskins, and will be coming home a confident group. Unfortunately, playing a Washington defense and then playing the Bears is like comparing moon gravity with ours. Take the points here and look for an OVER-sized (48) shootout.
Expert Team: 5-1 Bears
Expert Team: 5-1 Bears
New York Giants (+4.5) over KANSAS CITY CHIEFS: What??? The Giants? You mean the Giants that got blown out 38-0 by the Panthers? You mean the Giants that lost the Manning Bowl two weeks ago? You mean the Giants that turned the ball over 6 times in Dallas? Yes, dammit, I mean the group of professional football players with two-time Super Bowl MVP quarterback Eli Manning, a talented group of receivers, and enough defense to keep an Alex Smith-led team within a field goal. The losing badly for the Giants ends on Sunday. Just not he losing. Take the points, but watch the Chiefs win a defensive battle 20-17; UNDER 44.5.
Expert Team: 5-1 Chiefs
"F--K Yeah - 1 and 3 Against the Spread, baby."
Expert Team: 5-1 Chiefs
"F--K Yeah - 1 and 3 Against the Spread, baby."
TENNESSEE TITANS (-3.5) over New York Jets: This game will not make Sports Center's Top Ten Plays. This game will not be on The Red Zone channel very often. In fact, this game will probably not be viewed by anyone other than Titans fans, Jets fans, and gamblers like you and me. This will be a grind-out, punt position, defensive battle for the ages. The Jets are like an offense-less Baltimore Ravens - out to prove to the world that Rex Ryan didn't engineer and pay for the hit Mark Sanchez took in the fourth quarter of the second to last preseason game. We think the Titans defense is legit and that Jake Locker's fourth quarter game winning drive was a career changer. He will suddenly become the quarterback everyone has been waiting for. Titans in a rout 16-9; UNDER whatever.
Expert Team: 4-2 Titans
Expert Team: 4-2 Titans
Dallas Cowboys (-1.5) over SAN DIEGO CHARGERS: The Dallas Cowboys have a chance to go 4-0 ATS, 3-1 SU this week and take control of the NFC East. If San Diego were a more hostile environment, we might take the home dog, but the truth is a lot of old Dallas fans have retired to the San Diego area and should be out in droves on Sunday to support America's former team. I mean c'mon, it's the Chiefs now right? The Chargers lost a heart-breaker to the Tennessee Titans last week and will struggle to bounce back with the loss of wide out Malcolm Floyd. Dallas, although inconsistent in the past, has strung together a solid start to their 2013 campaign. In basically a pick 'em, look for Tony Romo to commandeer the Cowboys first road victory of the season. Take the UNDER 46, too.
Expert Team: 5-1 Cowboys
Expert Team: 5-1 Cowboys
OAKLAND RAIDERS (+3) over Washington Redskins: With the exception of the Jacksonville Jaguars, the Raiders have played and competed with pretty good teams. They are 1-2 SU, but if you got them late against the Broncos like I did, they're 2-0-1 ATS. Fortunately for the Raiders, the only thing more uncertain than Terrelle Pryor's status is the Washington Redskins defense, which is currently on pace to make the 2012 New Orleans Saints look like the 2001 Ravens. We don't love the Raiders, but coming back to sea level against the Redskins D will be like walking on the moon after last week in Denver. Take the home dog and the OVER 47 as the Raiders break 30 for the first time this year.
Expert Team: 4-2 Raiders
Expert Team: 4-2 Raiders
Philadelphia Eagles (+10.5) over DENVER BRONCOS: The final spread range game. Even Texas Todd who bleeds orange and blue believes that the Broncos have to come down to earth eventually, and he thinks it will be this week against the fast-paced Philadelphia Eagles. Last week the main success the Raiders had was establishing the read option quarterback run to set up the pass. Philly has a better QB and better wide outs. Chip Kelly will certainly slow his offense a bit this week at altitude to give his defense time to recoup, but we can easily see a back door cover in this one. Don't buy into the college-like O/U - take the points but also take the UNDER 59.5.
"This could be heaven or this could be hell, Mr. Vick. You decide."
Expert Team: 3-3
"This could be heaven or this could be hell, Mr. Vick. You decide."
Expert Team: 3-3
ATLANTA FALCONS (-1) over New England Patriots: Tough game to predict. Awesome game to watch. This is really a great line up in Week 4. There are premier games in every time slot. Tom Brady and his Patriot receivers finally put something together last week while their defense held the Tampa Bay Bucs to 3 points. The Falcons are not the Bucs, and playing in a dome is not the same as playing in the comforts of home crowd for young receivers. The Pats have been playing with house money and could easily be 1-2 rather than 3-0. The Falcons have had tougher competition thus far and should be able to put together enough offense to outscore the points their defense gives up. We'll take the home team and the UNDER 49.
Expert Team: 5-1 Falcons
Expert Team: 5-1 Falcons
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-6) over Miami Dolphins: Rob Ryan has last year's worst defense in league history ranked 5th through 3 games, and when the offense finally clicked last week this team became a force to be reckoned with. The Dolphins are the surprise team of the AFC along with the Chiefs starting their season 3-0 SU and ATS. This makes the 6 points tempting until you remember how much Drew Brees loves Monday Night Football. The Saints are 6-2 SU/ATS in those prime time slots and this game feels like a welcome to the Super Blowout Dome kind of game for the Dolphins. Give up the points and take the OVER 47.
Expert Team: 3-3
We felt the bottom last week, my friends, and it was BOUNCY. Look for a huge recovery from yours truly and Marco as we try to climb back to the ranks of mediocrity. Good luck with all of your picks and pools and bets and what-not's.
Tune back in tomorrow for our Friday Five preview.
May the Spread be with you all,
Vinny and Marco
Expert Team: 3-3
We felt the bottom last week, my friends, and it was BOUNCY. Look for a huge recovery from yours truly and Marco as we try to climb back to the ranks of mediocrity. Good luck with all of your picks and pools and bets and what-not's.
Tune back in tomorrow for our Friday Five preview.
May the Spread be with you all,
Vinny and Marco
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