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Bay Packers vs. Washington Redskins - Preview and Prediction
The
Packers looked like the far better team in Week 1 and Vegas has rewarded them
as 7.5 point home favorites with the total set at 49.5.
By: MaChez, TSZ Expert
Last week the
Packers battled the NFC favorite 49ers and played a pretty complete game. If not for an unlucky interception, the
Packers easily could have been the team ESPN has been salivating over all week.
The Redskins on the other hand started their season with a thud, giving up
three straight turnovers to start the game against the Eagles before a second
half comeback effort fell short. Both
teams will be fighting to avoid an 0-2 SU and ATS start to the season.
This week,
the Packers and Redskins face off at Lambeau Field in what should be an
exciting matchup featuring two of the most popular players in the NFL - Ryan
Pickett and Leonard Hankerson. It looks
to be the best game in the morning slate of games and therefore is being dubbed
the first ever "The Spread Zone Early Game of the Week! (TSZEGOTW)” as
we try to bring you more detailed analysis of the popular games. Let us know in the comments which games you’d
like to read about next week.
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Bay Offense vs. Redskins Defense
In what
should come as a shock to no one, the Packers have one of the top pass offenses
in the league. Aaron Rodgers, with his
slew of almost #1 receivers, easily put up 28 points against the vaunted SF
defense and should have no problem doing the same against a Redskins D that
couldn't cover the Eagles’ one receiver, DeSean Jackson. A little more surprising: The savior of the
RB and offensive line problems, rookie RB Eddie Lacey, looked like your
typical, below-average Packers’ running back and even fumbled so he could get
benched and take a break from all the scary NFL players. Fortunately he faces a team that gave up 263
yards rushing and couldn’t have stopped LeSean McCoy if he was running
blindfolded. Lacey should improve significantly,
helping open up the field for Rodgers to pick apart a Redskins D that will
again have trouble keeping up.
Redskins
Offense vs. Packers Defense
As mentioned
previously, RGIII and the Redskins offense were the epitome of rusty during the
first three quarters on Monday night, giving new meaning to "Operation
Patience." The Redskins finally put up some offensive points with six
seconds left in the third quarter but just didn’t look good until they were
playing catch-up against a defense that was defending a 25-point lead. RGIII
looked a little off both as a passer (15.5 QBR, 2 INT) and a runner (69 yards
combined with Alfred Morris) and will need to gain some confidence quickly.
Green Bay's
run D was surprisingly solid last week - rendering Frank Gore ineffective (2.1
YPC) while coming up with several big stops.
Unless something changes during this short week, RGIII and Morris will
have another tough game with Clay Matthews waiting around every corner to eat
Griffin for breakfast….or lunch.
“Hands off the meat, Clay.”
Fortunately
for the Redskins the Packers pass defense is still in the business of giving up
massive amounts of yards through the air. They gave up 412 yards last week but
do have their star safety, Morgan Burnett, returning who should help limit the
Redskins' deep plays and third down conversions. Although the Redskins will likely put up big
numbers through the air, the Packers D will provide enough pressure to cause
one or two turnovers and keep Rodgers on the field long enough to maintain a
good lead.
Prediction
Rodgers loves
chips on his shoulder (preferably Salt and Vinegar) and has one right now after
losing three straight times to his childhood favorite 49ers. He can feel Kaepernick
creeping up on his best QB status and won't let another young running QB do the
same, especially in the home opener. Yes
it is a big spread, but the Packers should have an easy time against the
Redskins who still have some kinks to work out after a wasted preseason. Look for Rodgers to have a big game and the
Packers to win 38-20.
MaChez Says: GREEN
BAY PACKERS (-7.5) over
Washington Redskins, OVER 49.5
Expert
Team: 5-0 Packers to cover
Official
TSZ Score Prediction: 31-21
Interesting
Facts to Back up Our Prediction
- The Packers have one of the best
homefield advantages in the league, going 8-1, 8-1, 7-1, and 6-2 at
Lambeau over the last four seasons.
For all you non-math majors, that's 85%.
- With Rodgers at the helm, the Packers
have averaged 28.6 PPG in home openers.
- During the past four years, the
Packers have gone 12-1 at home following a loss and that one loss
was a week after Rodgers suffered a concussion in 2010. Even factoring in that three point loss,
the Packers have outscored opponents by an average of 13.6 points at
home following a loss.
- In all his previous second games
back from a season ending injury, RGIII has never covered the spread
or hit the UNDER. (Just making sure
you’re paying attention).
- Rodgers hasn’t started and
completed two straight losing efforts in the last three and a half seasons
and has gone 13-4 ATS after a loss since 2009.
- The home team and the favorite
are both 3-1-1 ATS in the last five matchups between these teams.
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