TSZLGOTW (The Spread Zone's Late Game of the Week): Picks and Predictions for the Indianapolis Colts vs the San Francisco Forty Niners
On Sunday afternoon in the Bay Area, Indianapolis Colts quarterback Andrew Luck will return to his old stomping grounds to face his former Stanford Cardinal head coach, Jim Harbaugh and the San Francisco Forty Niners. Vegas opened the line on this game at San Francisco (-10) and despite the Colts' GM Ryan Grigson pulling off a blockbuster trade and the Niners linebacker Aldon Smith pulling off the road to get arrested for suspicion of DUI, the line remains unaltered.
Indianapolis Colts
On Tuesday morning, Cleveland Browns fans awoke to the news that their 2012 third overall draft pick, runningback Trent Richardson, whom the Browns had traded up for a little over a year ago, was traded away for a 2014 draft pick. Many fans went back to sleep, preferring the nightmare they were having to the reality of supporting the Cleveland Browns. On the same morning, Indianapolis Colts fans awoke to Christmas come early and the rampant media comparisons of Andrew Luck and Trent Richardson to the Manning-James duo that led the Colts to more regular season wins than any other franchise last decade.
This is what happens when you Google "Manning James"
Media hype and soothsaying not withstanding, the Indianapolis Colts come into their match-up with San Francisco a disappointing 1-1 after failing to cover against the Raiders in week 1 and then losing to the Miami Dolphins last week. Neither Luck nor Richardson play defense, which is where the Colts struggled against a less mobile Terrelle Pryor and a less accurate Ryan Tannehill. Although Trent Richardson is a huge lift to the injury riddled and talent-deprived running game in Indy, the Colts will need an inspired defensive performance to compete in the hostile, windy confines of Candlestick Park.
San Francisco Forty Niners
Today the news broke that Pro Bowl linebacker Aldon Smith was arrested at seven o'clock this morning on suspicion of DUI. Asked by reporters why he was drunk at seven in the morning, he said it was a part of his alcoholic training to adjust to the time difference in Indianapolis. Asked if he knew the game was in San Francisco this weekend he laughed and said, "Good one."
According to a more credible source than the author of the paragraph above, the USA Today reports that Jim Harbaugh expects Smith to play on Sunday, that there's a legal process, and the Niners respect that. He also added that he's "very disappointed," likely referring to the fact that he has to make time for an interpersonal, non-football issue.
With or without Aldon Smith, the San Francisco Forty Niners are a defensive force to be reckoned with. They enter the game with the Colts at 1-1 in second place in the NFC West, and are coming off a 29-6 loss to their division rival Seattle Seahawks - the Niners worse loss since a comparably embarrassing loss last season in Seattle.
The Spread
After the 42-13 drubbing the Niners received at the hands of the Seahawks last year, they responded with a 27-13 home win over the Arizona Cardinals to finish the 2012 season. The Niners quarterback Colin Kaepernick and his receiving corp are probably licking their chops at the Colts secondary after having to contend with Richard Sherman and Brandon Browner.
I fully expect the Forty Niners to come out and use the read option to exploit the weaknesses the Colts defense revealed two weeks ago against the Oakland Raiders. The spread will be covered by halftime and the Over/Under on Aldon Smith's sobriety is half way through the third quarter.
Prediction: Niners 34 - 17; OVER 46
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