And by watch out for, I mean who the hell really knows anymore? After three consecutive weeks of losing, not only am I showing total disregard for the implied laws of grammar by ending sentences with prepositions and beginning them with conjunctions, but I'm also losing faith that there exists any hard and fast rules one can follow when it comes to football handicapping.
Are there, Mr. Edison? Are there?
Last year Marco and I had an amorphous system that evolved as our understanding of football and oddsmaking deepened. Early last year we had our trademarked Friends-Don't-Let-Friends-Gamble-Alone-So-Let's-Talk-It-Out System (FDLFGASLTIOS - which happens to be a sports betting record for acronyms), which provided a sort of checks and balances system for one another's blind spots. With a 25-23 record through Week 3 of 2012, however, we decided we needed more than just our "gut feelings" about teams and started to look at things like:
1. ATS/SU Trends Between Teams - which unless recent are relatively meaningless but still very effective in supporting your picks. Take the Raiders last night who had covered 7 of 8 games in Denver. The one loss, however, was since Manning's arrival which would be a more informative starting point.
2. ATS/SU Trends Within Teams: These can get borderline insane, but are a lot of fun to spout out at football gatherings - i.e. The New Orleans Saints are 6-0 ATS when playing a morning game in states that have legalized gay marriage.
3. Reading the Hook: Oh man, the hook. For those of you who don't know what The Hook is, it's the half point the oddsmakers add or subtract from a line to lure you to one side of the line or the other. Marco and I would try to outsmart the oddsmakers by trying to figure out which side they wanted us to go to, then take the other side. The truth is, they don't care - they just want equal action on most and hope a few underdogs win or cover.
"Methinks less than a FG my good man."
4. Over-valued/Under-valued: We would track teams and how they've been doing lately - not against the spread like I'll be discussing below - but just overall, then determine if they were "over-valued," "under-valued," or in many cases just "valued." We would then take teams who were being under-valued by the public with the points.
5. The Illusion of Fantasy Football: Often times we'd look at teams being over-hyped or under-hyped because of the fantasy stars or lack thereof on their team. The New Orleans Saints were a great example with Drew Brees and Jimmy Graham increasing the public's belief that they were a team to bet on. Their fantasy defense, however, spent all year on waivers.
The moral of the story is that when you're winning as a sports bettor, then you have A Sytem, but when you're losing the world appears bleak and system-free. Nonetheless, there is no quit in us, nor will we stop with the Continued Education of Dan Gordon even though last week's Spread Range prediction of the Jags covering in Seattle makes me want to punch him in the face.
That being said, for those of you who recall The Spread Range is a measure used to track teams performance against the spread during the first quarter of the football season. Much like our Over-valued/Under-valued System, The Spread Range takes into account which teams the oddsmakers are trying to make more attractive because they've been sucking so much. The first couple of weeks of tracking the information proved fruitless as did our first use of this system in taking the Jags.
Heading into Week 4, however, there are four match-ups in which The Spread Range has reached the critical difference of 10 points after which Dan Gordon recommends taking the underdog. This week we'll probably be more discerning, but for the sake of our continued evolution as sports bettors, here are the four games, the lines, and their Spread Range Difference.
NFL Week 4 Games With Spread Range Differences > 10
Indianapolis Colts (-9) @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS: The Colts are a +1 while the Jags are a -14, a total difference of 15 points. Gordon's recommendation would be to take the Jags. I'm not so sure I can take the Jags on this one because the Colts number is hovering around zero which tells me they're performance against the spread has been very average on the whole - losing ATS to the Raiders, killing the Niners, very close against the Dolphins, while the Jags have been getting routed by everyone. This game almost qualifies for another Dan Gordon-ism which recommends taking a team that got blown out over a team that just beat a team badly when the difference in their margins of victory exceeds 50. The Colts won by 20, the Jags lost by 28. Pretty close...
Seattle Seahawks (-3) over HOUSTON TEXANS: The Seahawks are a +12 while the Texans are a -8, a spread range difference of 20. This one, however, looks very attractive because Seattle is on everyone's radar as a Super Bowl threat, while the Texans got blown out by the Ravens and are 0-3 ATS. I think we'll jump on this one.
New York Giants @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-4.5): The New York Giants have been getting blown out lately and have a -13 on The Spread Range, while the Chiefs are a +8 by virtue of a game 1 beat down of the Jags and a road underdog cover in Philly. It's hard to imagine that the New York Football Giants have no fight in them and after their 38-0 shellacking in Carolina, I'm sure the public will be shying away from them. This might be a good bet.
Philadelphia Eagles (-10.5) @ DENVER BRONCOS: Philadelphia is a -3 while the Broncos throttling of everyone has them at a +12, a Spread Range difference of 15. While Denver won and covered big their first two games, they were much closer to the line last night depending on when you got it. I think the Eagles are better than the Raiders and their hurry-up offense and conditioning might serve them well-enough at Mile High to cover this big line.
So, I'm not making any promises because ultimately Marco and I return to the FDLFGASLTIOS and don't put too much stock into anything unless it works.
Although we may not be betting on all these dogs, we'll definitely be considering a couple of them.
Comments? Questions? Reactions?
Vinny and Marco
Monday Night Football: Raiders vs Broncos Pick ATS
No comments:
Post a Comment