Vinny and I “met” through
Gmail during the NBA playoffs and I’ve since convinced him through constant
messaging 1) that I’m an “expert” on the NFL, and 2) to let me write a weekly
column. Hopefully my writing will keep you interested enough throughout the season
to keep you reading, but if not we can just write it off as filler content
there to make the site look better.
I’m looking for suggestions
in the comments on what you want to read and have researched for you. In the meantime I’ll write about my top bets
for the weekend and boy/girl do we have an exciting weekend ahead of us. US
Open Semi-Finals and Finals, World Cup Qualifying matches, college football all
day Saturday, some great WNBA matchups (just kidding), first NFL Sunday on (you
guessed it) Sunday, and two Monday Night Football games on (you guessed it
again!) Monday.
Here are my top “MaChez Says”
weekend picks:
1) Rafael Nadal (-8.5)
games won vs. Richard Gasquet (-150
@ 5Dimes)*
The question here isn’t IF
Nadal will win this match, but instead how easily he will do so. Nadal is playing out of this world right
now: He’s 20-0 on hard courts this year,
has yet to have his serve broken in the US Open, and has beat his opponents by
an average of 11.2 games. Even during
the one match he lost a set, he still won by nine games. His opponent on the other hand, world #9
Richard Gasquet, has needed five grueling sets in each of his past two matches
to advance.
Nadal has gone 10-0 professionally
against Gasquet and hasn’t lost a set to him in their last five matches (since
2008). Absolutely everything is working
for Nadal right now and with two days rest he should come in Saturday and blow
through Gasquet in three quick sets so he can save his energy and Hulk
aggression for Monday’s final.
*(-9) is also available
for -115 if you want to give yourself the option of a push
2) #14 Notre Dame @ #17 Michigan - Under 50.5
(-110 at 5Dimes)
Notre Dame and Michigan face
off in the 2nd to last game of their (sort-of) rivalry on Saturday
night. Last weekend, ND started the year
off against the inferior Temple and only managed 28 points, despite 543 yards
of offense and only six points from Temple. Michigan on the other hand had no
problem putting up points in their gimme-game against Central Michigan, scoring
59 points while allowing only 210 yards of offense and three field goals.
This week will be a bit
tougher for both schools as each of their Ds are pretty stout. Michigan, who scored six of eight TDs last
week on the ground, will be facing a D that didn‘t allow a single rushing TD
during the entire 2012 regular season.
QB Devin Gardner, who threw for two INTs last week, will need to be more
careful as he’s forced to throw the ball.
ND will have even more trouble scoring than they did against Temple, and
this should turn in to a defensive battle.
Last year the two teams only scored a total of 19 points, and although
it probably won’t be that bad, I recommend taking the under.
3) Novak Djokovich (-8) games won vs. Stanislas Wawrinka (-130)
Until last night’s match,
Djokovich was basically competing with Nadal to see who could finish their
matches the fastest and fake the most authentic-looking celebration at the end
like it was actually a challenge. He was
demolishing everyone in his path but finally looked human for a moment and
dropped his first set of the tourney last night. Wawrinka on the other hand was having
increasing difficulty each round but looked good yesterday in a straight set
victory of defending champ Andy Murray.
Djokovich is 14-2 against
Wawrinka but those two losses came way back in 2006. The wins haven’t always been easy though, as
a barnburner at the Australian Open earlier this year included a 12-10 fifth
set. Wawrinka will give Djokovich more
of a challenge than his past opponents, but the Djoker will prevail to meet
Nadal in the finals for a rematch of the epic semi-final match from this year’s
French Open.
4) USA Soccer (pk) @ Costa Rica (+110 @ 5Dimes)
Costa Rica is out to get the
Americans after they summoned a blizzard during the teams’ first match-up back
in March and beat the Ricans 1-0.
Believing that it was all our fault, the Costa Ricans have made the last
couple weeks impossible for the US staying in CR - forcing them to find a farm
to practice on, setting up obstacle courses at airport security, and egging
their bus. Both teams can qualify for
Brazil this week, but US has the most direct path with a win over CR
guaranteeing at least a playoff with New Zealand. A win for Costa Rica will put them at the top
of the group again, but won’t guarantee an entry just yet.
American striker, Jozy
Altidore is a bit banged up, but he’s scored in six straight games and should
be dangerous if he plays. Landon Donovan
also will be returning to play and the Americans should play with enough of an
edge to win this game after the difficulties they’ve been put through. Lines are even right now so grab USA (pk) at
+110 and you’ll get your money back for a likely draw.
5. South Carolina +3.5 @ Georgia (-115 @ 5Dimes)
Last week, Georgia, although
they performed well on offense, got torn apart by Clemson QB Tajh Boyd on their
way to a 35-38 loss. The Bulldogs
dropped from #5 to #11 and will try to avenge the loss and save their season at
home on Saturday against Raiders DE Jadeveon Clowney and the #6 South Carolina
Gamecocks. Working in SC’s favor, they
are 10-2 ATS following a SU win and have only lost two matchups against Georgia
ATS since 2002. Additionally, Georgia
lost their #1 receiver last week when he tore his ACL celebrating a TD (cue the
ESPN montage of similar injuries). South
Carolina should cover in an exciting game.
And just for fun, some season
long prop bets to get those comment boards going! All the so-called “experts” do it and you’ll
forget about them enough by the posteason that I can only bring up the few I
get right:
MVP - Aaron Rodgers
(+800) or Peyton Manning (+500) (just threw for 7 Tds!)
An improved running game will
open up the passing game for him.
Offensive Rookie of the
Year -Tavon Austin (+500)
Super explosive and will
transform this offense.
Defensive Rookie of the
Year - Tyran Mathieu (+1000)
Big playmaker if he stays out
of trouble.
Most Passing Yards - Drew
Brees (+270) or Matt Ryan (+800)
No D + Great QBs = Lots of
passing
A team will go 0-16 this
season (+2000 @ Bovada)
Oakland has already admitted
this is a rebuilding year, both publicly in a press conference and
metaphorically when they named Terrell Pryor their starting QB.
Jay Cutler Over 22.5 TDs
(-115 @ Bovada)
Threw for 25, 27, and 23 TDs
in ‘08, ‘09, and ‘10 before dealing with injuries and no O-Line in ‘11 &
‘12.
Aaron Rodgers Over 3
Rushing TDs (-115 @ Bovada)
He’s run for three or more in
every year as a starter except last.
Patrick Peterson Will
Record an Offensive TD in 2013 (+150 @ Bovada)
Coach Bruce Arians has a 60
play package with the dangerous Peterson on offense
Rex Ryan will be the First
Head Coach to be Fired During the 2013 Season (+150 @ Bovada)
No explanation needed
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