Thursday, September 19, 2013

NFL Week 3 Picks ATS: 16 Locks of the Week

You want the LOCKS? You can't handle the LOCKS?

How about Heather LOCKlear's golden LOCKS looking pretty washed out when she got LOCKed up for hit and run three years ago? Would that help you win your football pool?

Or perhaps you have a craving for the LOCH Ness Monster made of bagels and LOX? Is that something you could parlay or tease into a little extra spending money?

OR WHAT ABOUT COMPLETELY UNNECESSARY CAPS LOCKS? Will that get you through Week 3 of your suicide pool? No, it will probably just start an unexpected fight with your significant other who thinks you're yelling at them through the phone. So silly.

Here at The Spread Zone, we believe the use of the word LOCK, be it in reference to a washed up former 1980's hottie, a delicious, kosher breakfast, a mythical, Scottish amphibian, or NFL handicapping is completely irresponsible. Of course you can handle the LOCKs, because they're as fictional as old Nessie of Loch Ness.

A scene from one of my favorite Kevin Smith movies exemplifies the problems with NFL touts claiming they have sports betting locks for sale. The conversation between Jason Lee and Ben Affleck takes place right after Ben - much to Jason's chagrin - starts dating the lesbian, Amy.

Much like the Easter Bunny, Santa Claus, and for the sake of argument the non-political agenda lesbian, sports betting locks are also figments of your imagination. That's why we only use the word sarcastically or cast disparaging comments towards those who don't.

What we do have at The Spread Zone is a Friday Five Confidence List we offer to our TSZ Insiders for the nominal price of $17/season. So if you define LOCK as picking the correct team against the spread 65% of the time, then you define it exactly the same way we did all of 2012. If, on the other hand, you define LOCK as hitting 20% over the course of two weeks and then hiding your head in the sand to avoid public ridicule and humiliation, then you define it exactly the same way we have this season. The only thing we've been able to hang our hat on so far is an 8-2 record on our Friday Five Confidence Over/Unders and a 23-9 overall O/U record.

Friday Five Confidence Picks to Date: 2-8 ATS

Friday Five Over/Under Confidence Picks to Date: 8-2 

If you have even a basic understanding of statistics, you'll know that the chance of blindly picking the correct team to cover the spread in football is 50%. It's like flipping a coin or picking a number out of a hat, provided there are only two numbers in that hat. The fact that Marco and I are currently sitting 30% below an infant choosing one of two beanie babies means that - according to the indisputable gambling laws of the universe and all that it embodies - WE...ARE...DUE!!!

The TSZ Insider stock is as low as it's ever been which means it's time to buy. Our confidence remains unshaken, especially when we look at the fact that 22 of the first 32 games this season have been decided by less than a touchdown and half of those were decided by less than a field goal. Both are record beginnings and both remind us that we are a missed tackle here and a turnover there from being 8-2 ATS. There's nothing to do but pick our asses up off the ground and carry on.

The Spread Zone's Friday Five is based in confidence rankings compiled by our Team of Experts, with each capper ranking their top eight picks and distilling those down to five. You can see all of our picks for free on the Experts Page back at The Spread Zone and try to figure out our Friday Five, or you could sign up to be an Insider at get two additional Friday Five lists for the same low price. That's right, for $17 for the season, you now get:

1. Friday Five ATS Picks - crappy now but heading north

2. Friday Five Over/Under Picks - 80% and holding with another Under correctly predicted last night.

3. Friday Five Don't Touch 'Em List - games we wouldn't bet on with your money.

And that concludes my floor routine. The most important thing to remember is that all of our Picks and our Over/Unders are absolutely free on the Experts Page, and the Insider Membership is really just a way of supporting the cause, letting us know you appreciate the product, and hopefully multiplying your investment over the course of the season.

If you're not convinced, send us an e-mail at letting us know you're thinking about it, and for the price of adding you to our mailing list, we'll send you one pick from each confidence list.

Even if you don't sign up to be an Insider, please know you are all V.I.P.s at The Spread Zone. Without you, all of this would just be a pathetic on-line journal.

Thank you for not letting that happen,

Vinny and Marco

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