Super Bowl XLVIII: Denver vs Seattle Pick ATS, Predictions, and More

Seahawks? Broncos? Seahawks? Broncos? Seacos? Brohawks? Bro Bros? Ethan Hawk? Eye of the Hawk? Can we at least agree that two weeks between meaningful football games is WAY too long for the average attention span? Me personally - by last Tuesday I was immersed in college basketball, disappointed yet again by the NBA, toying with the idea of becoming a hockey fan, and checking the weather in Arizona to see if pitchers and catchers might report early.



Now, yet another week later, It seems like an eternity ago I was giddy with excitement for the Conference Championship showdowns and the Punnett Square of possible Super Bowl Match-Ups. The New England-Denver game won't be seen on ESPN Classic anytime soon, but the Seahawks-Niners game definitely lived up to the hype. In the end, Marco and I notched another couple of ATS wins, bringing out public-fading post-season record to 7-3 ATS. And still somehow people marvel at the fact that hotels in Reno and Vegas can afford to comp rooms for their "VIP" guests. Speaking of comps...

TSZ Coffee Thanks You's: Before we forget, we'd like to thank Tony F. for his generous coffee donation to The Spread Zone after he successfully played our conference championship picks last week. Thank you Tony and thank you Ronelle.

Our Post-Season Record: 7-3 ATS

     Public Betting Record: 4-6 ATS

So what's it gonna be? Seahawks or Broncos? Will it be the unstoppable force or the immovable object that ultimately raises the Lombardi Trophy? Will the tenet that defense wins championships and offense sells tickets prevail, or have the rule changes in the NFL tipped the scales just enough to render such subscriptions obsolete? Are you standing on the fence waiting for a weather report? Are you praying for Peyton's meteorological Kryptonite or would you like to see a game where the players rather than the elements decide? Still can't decide? Well join the club, but while you're filling out the membership forms, here's some food for thought.



Let's face it, we live in a quick-fix, superficial culture that likes pretty things and wants them now. In America "It's what's on the inside that counts" is just something ugly people tell themselves to feel better. There are six minute abs, twelve minute whitening strips, 24 Hour Fitness, P90X, and a pill for just about anything that ails you if you flip to the right channel. Don't worry if the side effects cause nausea, vomiting, diarrhea, homicide, or death, because while you're still alive and out of prison you are going to look and feel great.



If there's a team that reflects American culture right now it's the Denver Broncos, as evidenced by the 73% of public bets that have pushed them from 2 point underdogs to 2.5 point favorites. The Broncos are pretty and fast. They hurry up the offense, they have a ton of weapons, they score a boatload of points, at at the end of the day they win, win, win. Throw in some apple pie and the Denver Broncos are downright patriotic. Seattle - not so much. They run the ball, they grind out wins, they stop fast, pretty things with their faster, less attractive defense, but at the end of their days they also pile up the W's. Politically speaking, the Seahawks are the Ralph Nader of American football - a terrific candidate, but not when there are more than two teams running. Well guess what America - there are only two teams left.



Don't get me wrong, I like fast, pretty things too, but the older I get the more I like value and enduring quality. I shop at ebay and scour Craigslist looking for slightly used and less expensive shiny stuff. I'm an early bird at yard sales, open the doors at thrift stores, and ultimately end up with more value for less investment. Having said that, I believe waiting as long as we have to make our Super Bowl pick has turned out to be the right choice.



Truth be told, when the conference championships ended Marco and I were just like the rest of America - sucked in by the hot dogs and Chevrolets in Colorado, and when that opening line giving the Broncos points was released we were all over Denver. Now, however, with Seattle +3 readily available at Bovada.lv and other online gaming sites, we're going second-hand goods, slightly tarnished shiny, Rolling with Ralph, whatever you want to call it, we'll take the league's number one defense plus the points to keep up with the number one offense and their points.



Sure Floyd Money Mayweather bet 10 million on the Broncos and Buffet the Manatee (predictor of six straight Super Bowl winners) is also backing Denver, but I have it from a good source that Buffet also confided in world renowned manatee whisperer Granny C that he didn't know Seattle was getting points now. Here are a list of stats that influenced our final decision. Take them with a grain of salt. Put that salt on your hand, lick it, shoot a top shelf tequila, suck a lime, and enjoy the game.



1. The underdog is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 Super Bowls.
2. The Seahawks are 8-1 ATS and 5-4 SU in the past two seasons as a dog.
3. When underdogs or favored by three or less in 2013, the Seahawks are 4-1 ATS/3-2 SU.
4. The Seahawks are 25-11 ATS in Russell Wilson's starts (69.4%).
5. The Seahawks are 6-2 SU/ATS away from home this year.
6. Pete Carroll's teams are 6-3 ATS in the playoffs
7. The Seahawks haven't had a game go over the total since November 17th.
8. In 2013 the Seahawks have played seven games with a closing total of 44 or more and the UNDER cashed in six of them.

     
"Now I can call my family in...Omaha."

When push comes to shove Marco and I rooting for Peyton Manning. How could we not? He's the nicest guy in the world, he makes awesome commercials, delivers solid press conferences, and happens to be one of the greatest football minds of all time. Plus, TSZ Expert Texas Todd will be checking "Attending Broncos Super Bowl" off his bucket list next week, and there's nothing we'd rather hear about than him coming home from a victory party he, his brother, and his cousins attended at Knowshon Moreno's hotel suite. Our heart says Denver, but the points and the value say Seattle. Therefore, our final prediction for Super Bowl XLVIII:

Final Score: Denver 24 Seattle 23

Picks: Seattle +3 and the O/U will be a PUSH.

Good luck and May the Spread Be With You,

Vinny and Marco

NFL Picks: Conference Championship Picks ATS For ALL TWO GAMES

Wild Card Weekend: 3-1 ATS

Divisional Round: 2-2 ATS; 3-1 O/U

As the NFL season winds down and we are left with fewer and fewer games to choose from each week, it occurs to me that gambling on football is a lot like dating. If you're married and find yourself struggling with the diminishing number of games to choose from each weekend, but also get really excited about the quality and consistency that remains, then this post might make you feel better. If, however, you're a terminally single, commitment-phobe, with an insatiable need for change, diversity, and a new relationship, then you might want to look for your NFL picks elsewhere, or scroll quickly to the bottom to see which teams are getting roses from this bachelor.

Hear me out.

The NFL regular season is exactly like high school - it's the practice field for future dating, with loads of choices every week, and opportunities for success on Mondays, Thursdays, and Sundays. Much like the real world of dating and gambling, however, throwing caution to the wind or ignoring options because of outward appearances can have disastrous results. Some girls like the Indianapolis Colts look hot on the outside (11-5 SU) but are really just pretty average and maybe a little too wounded (ReggieWayne) on the inside (8-7-1 ATS). Similarly, there are girls like Ally Sheedy from The Breakfast Club and a hundred copycat movies in the '90's who are frightening at first glance (Oakland Raiders 4-12 SU) but with a little make up, no glasses, and a strand of hair tucked behind their ears are suddenly junior prom-worthy with tremendous potential (Oakland Raiders 8-8 ATS). 

The rest of the spectrum includes:

A) The hottest girls - hopefully the ones that make a deep run in your personal playoffs - like the Seahawks, Niners, and Broncos, all with solid ATS records. The price of dating these teams is higher, but the long term investment is usually worth it.

B) The unpredictable, crazy girls - like the Dallas Cowboys - who you never really knew what you were getting on a week-to-week basis. Sadly, this was always the most attractive to me when I was younger, which is probably why I'm not a great gambler and married to a Gemini.

C) The less attractive girls (with better odds) like the Houston Texans (4-12 ATS), the Jacksonville Jaguars (5-10-1), and the Washington Redskins (5-11 ATS) who, as the weeks go by, become a better and better bets to stay away from. 

D) The one that got away - that unique girl with an equal balance of looks on the outside and virtues on the inside, but because you're too damn young and shallow to appreciate her, she never even makes the post-season. You know what I mean Arizona Cardinals (10-6 SU, 10-5-1 ATS)? What if you hadn't hooked up with the Niners in Week 17? We'll never know but always wonder.

When high school ends, the post-season of pre-marital dating begins. For me, Wild Card Weekends took place in the college dorms of UC Davis. Balancing a more demanding academic schedule, a job, and a social life suddenly distilled thirty-two choices a week down to about eight. Somewhere between the quality of women in my dorm and the amount of alcohol I was consuming on weekends lay the truth that the remaining teams seemed to be of better quality than the ones I'd left behind in the regular season. 

Unfortunately, that also made it harder to choose because not only did the margin of difference between women become smaller, what was important to me as far as a deep playoff run was changing. Sometimes the hottest girl in the room seemed the obvious choice (Cincinnati Bengals), but take her out of her comfort zone (home field or with a lead), and you find out girls (like the Chargers) who you can take anywhere actually have more value in the long run. Other times it's those conservative women (a la Kansas City) who travel well and get the job done, but then get way to conservative when they think they're in control. Wild Card Weekends made it increasingly difficult to decide what I wanted for my future because I could see value in almost every team in the dorms - except the Philadelphia Eagles. Way too fast and easy. Seriously.

The Divisional Round last weekend was more a reflection of real-world dating. While some girls from college disappeared forever, some remained and new girls from work or overlapping circles of friends emerged to fill the void. The girls you hoped would make a deep run into your future (New Orleans Saints) ultimately fell to the stronger, more aggressive girls (Seattle Seahawks), and the sexy Carolina Kitten had to go back home after her year abroad in San Francisco. Leaving college and then dating in the real world was kind of sad. When I graduated from high school I hoped I'd never see the New England Patriots again, and yet here she was making another deep run into my dating/gambling/writing life.

Now - FINALLY (right?) - we have the NFL Conference Championships. The talent level is high, and in some ways the choices have started to look the same. Sure there are glaring holes in every single woman that remains - be it inexperience (Seahawks), a lack of balance (Pariots), arrogance (Niners), or a history of failing in cold weather (you know that type of woman, right?), but the overall quality is there and I'd be lucky to end up with any of these teams. Nonetheless, being more of a Wild Card Weekender at heart, I'm finding this inevitable ending to be bittersweet. Perhaps it's cold feet, but I miss the five-day weekends, the infinite choices, and the Tuesday gambling hangover. In lieu of these things, however, I will award two teams our final roses before the Super Bowl.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-3.5, 39.5) over San Francisco Forty Niners: Red flags (multiple divorces, unemployed, philosophy major, drummer, etc.) are great warning signs as to whether you should continue a budding relationship. In this case, there are way too many red flags steering us away from the San Francisco Forty Niners. First of all, they are the public favorite to the tune of 70%. Everyone, including my mom loves them. If I wanted to date someone my mom loved, I'd date my dad's best friend. Just kidding, but you get the point. Secondly, the hook at 3.5 is begging us to take the Forty Niners. My wife didn't need that kind of hook to get me. She just had to be her wonderfully, duplicitous, Gemini self, and it was like I was marrying two women. The truth is, the Seahawks are not getting credit where credit is due. They've been practically unbeatable at home (15-1 SU) since Russell Wilson arrived while the Niners have been god-awful visiting them the past two years. You think just because Kaepernick beat them at home he can suddenly turn things around in Seattle. We'll take the home team, give up the hook, and take the OVER 39.5.

DENVER BRONCOS (-5, 56) over New England Patriots: Whenever you find a women like the Denver Broncos who almost exclusively score touchdowns with a 5 point edge, you snatch her up. Sure the Patriots might have better looks and a more reliable post-season dating history, but the truth is she's not what she used to be. Plus, with 74% of the public taking her, do you really want to go there? Yuck. We don't. Yes, she still has the brains and the experience, but she's been dealing with injuries all year, and do you really want to head to the alter with someone on crutches or in a wheelchair? No offense if you're into that sort of thing, but we're taking the team that just got the huge playoff monkey off their back, have way more weapons at their disposal, and will probably end up winning this game by seventeen points. We'll be taking the Broncos and cautiously betting the OVER, worried that a jealous Belichick might go all single, white, San Diego female on us.

Good luck everyone and Happy Dating, 

Vinny and Marco

NFL Picks Divisional Round: Fades Aren't Just Haircuts Anymore

Before we get to our NFL Divisional Round picks against the spread, let me first acknowledge a couple of our readers whose handicapping prowess is matched only by their generosity. As most of you know, The Spread Zone recently wrapped up its First Annual Texas Todd Recoup Your Ill Invested Money Friday Five Contest. Not only did more than a dozen contestants submit their picks every week for half the season, but several participants also emerged as decent handicappers. In the end, Maneesh and Dan P. finished first and second, taking home the cash prizes and leaving Marco and I to share one third place, homemade, TSZ t-shirt. I'm calling dibs on the first month right now.

When I tried to send Maneesh and Dan their winnings, however, Dan P. said, "In lieu of sending me anything, why don't you treat yourselves to some specialty coffees for all your time and dedication this year; you deserve it! Failing that, donation to a local food bank or charity would be great." Endeavoring not to fail, on my next visit to Starbucks I will not only treat myself to a ginormous specialty coffee but I will also purchase one for the most depraved and caffeine-deprived looking person in the joint.

Almost simultaneously to Dan's gesture, I received a similar response from Maneesh saying, "As far as the winnings are concerned, I would like to donate it to Red Cross Disaster Relief if it's possible for you to do that. I just hope it makes 2014 just a little better and brighter for someone." Fortunately for Maneesh, I have the Red Cross on speed dial ever since their successful efforts at relieving the disaster that was the first half of our NFL season at The Spread Zone.

In all seriousness Dan and Maneesh, your kindness and generosity are unexpected and inspiring. I will pay forward your winnings and let you know where they went when I do. 

And now for something completely different...

After the Saints, Eagles, Cheifs, Colts, Niners, and Packers put the Wild in Wild Card and the Bengals put the Weak in Weekend, NFL fans and gamblers alike are licking their lips in anticipation of another four-pack of hard-fought, back-and-forth, come-from-behind, underdog-covering games. Unfortunately, the world doesn't always work out that way. And by "the world" I mean the degenerate culture of sports betting, and by "doesn't always work out that way" I mean hardly ever and in fact the opposite is a more likely outcome. 

Unfortunately for the average bettor, however, a strange and mysterious form of amnesia sets in over the Wild Card weekend. They marvel as they witness the Indianapolis Colts erase a 28 point deficit in the second half. They oooh and ahhh as the Saints and Eagles swap leads until New Orleans finally breaks the legendary Road Curse that has haunted their organization since they shared a division with the Niners. This week they're like, "What? The Patriots and the Seahawks are still in the playoffs? How did that happen?" and without an answer satisfying enough not to take the touchdown plus those amazing Wild Card teams are being given this weekend, they bet the farm on the road dogs. If you don't believe me, check the numbers. 

Here is how the public is betting this weekend:

1. San Francisco (-2.5) over CAROLINA to the tune of 79%

2. San Diego (+9.5) over DENVER at a steady clip of 61%

3. Indianapolis (+7.5) over NEW ENGLAND at just under 60%

4. New Orleans (+7.5) over SEATTLE at an alarming 58%

If there is even a single ounce of you that agrees with all four public picks and thinks you'd like to roll them up into a big fat parlay, I encourage you to take a quick mini-vacation to Las Vegas where I guarantee you can find a urinal to piss in that costs more than your house. Urinals like that are not built on losing. We're not saying that anyone in the world knows what the outcomes of these games will be, we're just saying that there's no way in hell that an average of two-thirds of the betting public is going to walk away from this weekend a winner. In fact, we think the exact opposite is going to happen.

Wild Card Weekend Record: 3-1 ATS

Friday Five Record Week 14-17: 15-4-1 ATS

What It All Means: We're on a roll and we intend to keep it that way by completely fading the public and going with the following picks:

CAROLINA PANTHERS (+2.5) over San Francisco Forty Niners: Ohhh, the Forty Niners were so brave going to Green Bay and playing in sub-zero weather. Isn't it amazing that they beat the Green Bay Packers and their daunting TWENTY-SIXTH ranked defense? No, it's not. They are coasting on reputation. Colin Kaepernick has proven that he can beat up on the Green Bay Packers and the other mediocre teams in the league, but when it comes to winning on the road the Niners only won one game against a team with a +.500 record and that was the Arizona Cardinals in Week 17. 

Meanwhile, Carolina does nothing but win at home and continues to get no respect. In fact, their only home loss this season was a 12-7 defeat to the #1 seeded Seattle Seahawks. They also beat the Niners in San Francisco a few weeks ago and handed Kaepernick his worst QBR ever. Take the points and tell the public they're idiots. 

Picks: Carolina and the UNDER 42

DENVER BRONCOS (-9.5) over San Diego Chargers: Okay, the Chargers did surprise me last weekend, so I can't really poo poo their performance or blame everything on Andy Dalton and Butterfingers Bernard, but let's face it - all we've heard in the media ever since their win is how San Diego beat Denver in Denver last time, has won six out of eight times at Mile High, plays the Broncos tough all the time, etc., etc. All that may be true, and to be completely honest if it weren't for their mediocre offense and their mediocre defense, we'd be all over the Chargers, but as it is, Ryan Matthews is as banged up as the Broncos are rested, and we believe the 2013 Baltimore Ravens plagiarized story ends here. If the Broncos can jump our to a quick lead (and we think they will), they will be the ones playing keep away with the Chargers keep away game plan. Make sense of that sentence, and when you're done give up the points and take the Broncos.

Picks: Denver and the OVER 55

NEW ENGLAND (-7.5) over Indianapolis Colts: Wow - Andrew Luck is amazing. He led the Colts to the second largest playoff comeback in NFL history. Thank goodness the Colts horrendously porous defense set up that scenario for him. Great teamwork, right? Right. Granted, the New England Patriots are not the daunting, Super Bowl locks they once were, but Brady is still Brady and if Alex Smith and a Jamaal Charles-less backfield can score 44 on Indy, mark him down for about 60. Plus, Belichick is still Belichick, and I'm pretty sure he'll have a plan to limit T.Y. Hilton to less than the 6,000 receptions he had last week. This is a no brainer. Give up the points and take the Patriots.

"Yeah, I'd like you to double Hilton. Over."

Picks: New England and the OVER 52

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-7.5) over New Orleans Saints: Well, the Saints finally won a playoff road game last week. I guess that means road victories should come pretty easily from now on. I mean look at the Boston Red Sox once the Curse of the Bambino ended. They win the World Series all the time, so if the Saints can squeak by the Philadelphia Eagles and their THIRTY-SECOND RANKED rush defense, then playing against the number one overall defense in Seattle (15-1 SU/12-4 ATS at home the past two years) should be a piece of cake. I hope they like their cakes spread all over their faces and then mashed into soggy field turf by 300+ pound defensive linemen. Take Seattle - with Percy Harvin back, the legs fresh and rested, the crowd noisy as always, this will resemble that Monday Night game back in November. Matt Rudnitsky of SportsGrid.com described the first match-up like this:

"The biggest factor in that game, besides the fast start, was Russell Wilson dominating. The Saints had the 6th-ranked pass defense in DVOA this year, but Wilson torched them for 310 yards and a 94.7 QBR. If you (understandably) still don’t understand QBR, that’s like having sex 100 with 100 girls with a condom yet impregnating 94.7 of them. (I am exaggerating, but it’s 94.7 out of 100, on a difficult scale.)

       "Hee, hee. I just got you pregnant."

Enough said.

Pick: Seattle and the UNDER 46.5

Please don't be a prisoner of the moment. Use your heads, bet wisely, and may the spreads be with you all. 

Vinny and Marco