Wednesday, January 29, 2014

Super Bowl XLVIII: Denver vs Seattle Pick ATS, Predictions, and More

Seahawks? Broncos? Seahawks? Broncos? Seacos? Brohawks? Bro Bros? Ethan Hawk? Eye of the Hawk? Can we at least agree that two weeks between meaningful football games is WAY too long for the average attention span? Me personally - by last Tuesday I was immersed in college basketball, disappointed yet again by the NBA, toying with the idea of becoming a hockey fan, and checking the weather in Arizona to see if pitchers and catchers might report early.

Now, yet another week later, It seems like an eternity ago I was giddy with excitement for the Conference Championship showdowns and the Punnett Square of possible Super Bowl Match-Ups. The New England-Denver game won't be seen on ESPN Classic anytime soon, but the Seahawks-Niners game definitely lived up to the hype. In the end, Marco and I notched another couple of ATS wins, bringing out public-fading post-season record to 7-3 ATS. And still somehow people marvel at the fact that hotels in Reno and Vegas can afford to comp rooms for their "VIP" guests. Speaking of comps...

TSZ Coffee Thanks You's: Before we forget, we'd like to thank Tony F. for his generous coffee donation to The Spread Zone after he successfully played our conference championship picks last week. Thank you Tony and thank you Ronelle.

Our Post-Season Record: 7-3 ATS

     Public Betting Record: 4-6 ATS

So what's it gonna be? Seahawks or Broncos? Will it be the unstoppable force or the immovable object that ultimately raises the Lombardi Trophy? Will the tenet that defense wins championships and offense sells tickets prevail, or have the rule changes in the NFL tipped the scales just enough to render such subscriptions obsolete? Are you standing on the fence waiting for a weather report? Are you praying for Peyton's meteorological Kryptonite or would you like to see a game where the players rather than the elements decide? Still can't decide? Well join the club, but while you're filling out the membership forms, here's some food for thought.

Let's face it, we live in a quick-fix, superficial culture that likes pretty things and wants them now. In America "It's what's on the inside that counts" is just something ugly people tell themselves to feel better. There are six minute abs, twelve minute whitening strips, 24 Hour Fitness, P90X, and a pill for just about anything that ails you if you flip to the right channel. Don't worry if the side effects cause nausea, vomiting, diarrhea, homicide, or death, because while you're still alive and out of prison you are going to look and feel great.

If there's a team that reflects American culture right now it's the Denver Broncos, as evidenced by the 73% of public bets that have pushed them from 2 point underdogs to 2.5 point favorites. The Broncos are pretty and fast. They hurry up the offense, they have a ton of weapons, they score a boatload of points, at at the end of the day they win, win, win. Throw in some apple pie and the Denver Broncos are downright patriotic. Seattle - not so much. They run the ball, they grind out wins, they stop fast, pretty things with their faster, less attractive defense, but at the end of their days they also pile up the W's. Politically speaking, the Seahawks are the Ralph Nader of American football - a terrific candidate, but not when there are more than two teams running. Well guess what America - there are only two teams left.

Don't get me wrong, I like fast, pretty things too, but the older I get the more I like value and enduring quality. I shop at ebay and scour Craigslist looking for slightly used and less expensive shiny stuff. I'm an early bird at yard sales, open the doors at thrift stores, and ultimately end up with more value for less investment. Having said that, I believe waiting as long as we have to make our Super Bowl pick has turned out to be the right choice.

Truth be told, when the conference championships ended Marco and I were just like the rest of America - sucked in by the hot dogs and Chevrolets in Colorado, and when that opening line giving the Broncos points was released we were all over Denver. Now, however, with Seattle +3 readily available at and other online gaming sites, we're going second-hand goods, slightly tarnished shiny, Rolling with Ralph, whatever you want to call it, we'll take the league's number one defense plus the points to keep up with the number one offense and their points.

The 15 Most Heartbreaking Super Bowl Failures

Sure Floyd Money Mayweather bet 10 million on the Broncos and Buffet the Manatee (predictor of six straight Super Bowl winners) is also backing Denver, but I have it from a good source that Buffet also confided in world renowned manatee whisperer Granny C that he didn't know Seattle was getting points now. Here are a list of stats that influenced our final decision. Take them with a grain of salt. Put that salt on your hand, lick it, shoot a top shelf tequila, suck a lime, and enjoy the game.

1. The underdog is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 Super Bowls.
2. The Seahawks are 8-1 ATS and 5-4 SU in the past two seasons as a dog.
3. When underdogs or favored by three or less in 2013, the Seahawks are 4-1 ATS/3-2 SU.
4. The Seahawks are 25-11 ATS in Russell Wilson's starts (69.4%).
5. The Seahawks are 6-2 SU/ATS away from home this year.
6. Pete Carroll's teams are 6-3 ATS in the playoffs
7. The Seahawks haven't had a game go over the total since November 17th.
8. In 2013 the Seahawks have played seven games with a closing total of 44 or more and the UNDER cashed in six of them.

"Now I can call my family in...Omaha."

When push comes to shove Marco and I rooting for Peyton Manning. How could we not? He's the nicest guy in the world, he makes awesome commercials, delivers solid press conferences, and happens to be one of the greatest football minds of all time. Plus, TSZ Expert Texas Todd will be checking "Attending Broncos Super Bowl" off his bucket list next week, and there's nothing we'd rather hear about than him coming home from a victory party he, his brother, and his cousins attended at Knowshon Moreno's hotel suite. Our heart says Denver, but the points and the value say Seattle. Therefore, our final prediction for Super Bowl XLVIII:

Final Score: Denver 24 Seattle 23

Picks: Seattle +3 and the O/U will be a PUSH.

Good luck and May the Spread Be With You,

Vinny and Marco

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