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Friday, November 30, 2012

Friday Five for Frappuccinos

FRIDAY FIVE SEASON TO DATE: 21-10 ATS

FRIDAY FIVE LAST WEEK: 2-3 ATS (First losing week of the season)

Let me be the first to say that I'm glad we picked the New Orleans Saints to cover last night's disappointing loss to the Atlanta Falcons. Would we have loved a garbage time touchdown and the back door cover rather than the fifth (yellow flagged) and sixth Drew Brees interceptions? Absolutely. Five uncharacteristic turnovers, a streak of 54 consecutive games with a touchdown pass ending, and a ten point loss - that we can live with. Taking Atlanta and trying to explain to anyone that it had anything to do with genius or football handicapping IQ - we'd rather lose.

And if anyone tells you they knew the Atlanta defense was going to give Drew Brees those kinds of fits, not only are they lying - they're delusional. Even my mother-in-law said she had a vision of a Falcon being impaled on a Saints logo.

Coffee Donation Thank You: Just so you know, Texas Todd - a second serving of Just Because Coffee is one of the best things we've ever experienced. You are a generous man. Thank you very much from the bottom of our caffeinated hearts. Seriously.

Before we get to the Friday Five, I want to share a little story.

A few years ago I had the privilege of coaching high school basketball for a few years. In my first season, I had a roster of seven girls on the JV team. I knew very little about the sport, but I loved it, and I loved finding ways to inspire the same enthusiasm in my players. With a short bench, those kids played their tails off all year. It was an unforgettable run which culminated in a league championship clinched on the final day of the season.

During the season, parents were incredibly supportive - thanking me for being so positive and encouraging. For Christmas I got Starbucks gift cards and at the end of the year, the kids all pitched in and bought me a guitar. One parent, however, - and there's always one - felt as though I was treating his kid unfairly, withholding high fives that I was freely giving to the other kids.

                         

I was taken aback. Who counts that shit, right? Well, apparently this guy. Human nature and my own dysfunctional family system dictated that I filter out all the praise and focus on the single criticism. I suddenly found myself ultra-conscious of my encouragement distribution during time-outs, likely leaving my players confused as to why I made them high five me on the way into and out of huddles. It was ridiculous and it mercifully passed quickly when I realized that parent was just plain crazy. Along the  way, however, it made me an even more conscientious coach.

Last week we decided to privatize our Friday Five in hopes of earning some coffee donations to put towards our vision of TSZ's future. Many donated, and even though we had our first bad week, no one complained. Except, of course, for one "parent." He was tactful and polite enough, although he did suggest that karma might have had something to do with our losing record last week.

                             

Unless Karma is Atlanta kicker Matt Bryant's nickname or is a wide receiver for the Jacksonville Jaguars, we're going to politely disagree. But we always appreciate diplomatic feedback.

We love what we're doing here at The Spread Zone. We love that we have readers who appreciate our enthusiasm for writing, football, gambling, community, and dialogue. We love that we're decent  at those things, and we want to grow The Spread Zone into something bigger, better, and more enduring than a seasonal blog, so we decided to use our Friday Five success as a donation-based commodity.

What that means: Value is in the eye of the beholder.

All of our picks are still free on Wednesday, so you might do just as well to pick your own Friday Five. Follow your heart. If you're on our e-mail list already, you get Friday Fives and Thursday Threes and just plain good mornings from Marco and me all the time. You know who you are.

Reminder: If you're a follower and we don't have your e-mail, please write to us at vinnyandmarco@gmail.com, so we can put you in our address book. Without you we would be nothing.

Man, that took a long time didn't it?

FRIDAY FIVE FOR FRAPPUCCINOS: How it Works

For the rest of you, we're not asking for much - just absolute loyalty, intelligent feedback, community participation, and your first born. Or just a warm, delicious coffee donation. For non-followers who are interested in our Friday Five picks, here are some suggestions we have before you commit.

1. Read earlier posts about The Friday Five to check out our track record. We take a lot of favorites, but in some ways that makes our 19-7 ATS record even more impressive because this has been the year of the underdog. Our worst Friday Five so far has landed us at 3-2 ATS. Have a look at all of our Week 12 picks to decide whether you even care what we have confidence in.

2. Check the comments section below the posts and we believe you will find some of the most well-informed  NFL handicapping fans/gamblers on the Internet. Just look at their original Thursday Three fan picks -3-0 ATS. Get in now, because they might start asking for coffee, too.

3. Ask yourself if you really need help with this. A radio analyst recently described NFL handicapping as "throwing darts at a dart board." Are we that good, or have we just been lucky enough to hit the bulls eye 19 out of 26 times? We honestly don't know for sure yet, but we're gaining confidence every week.

4. If you decide to join TSZ, this is all we're asking for:

Step 1: Make a coffee donation by clicking on the DONATE button that says "Coffee for Vinny and Marco."

                                      

Step 2: Become a Follower of The Spread Zone. This isn't mandatory, but it's encouraged. Once you donate and let us know, we'll have your e-mail and if that's good enough for you it's good enough for us. 

                               

Step 3: Send us an e-mail at vinnyandmarco@gmail.com letting us know you donated. Include a confirmation number in case your moniker isn't easily recognized.

Step 4: Reap the benefits of not only our successful Friday Five, but also the supportive, intelligent dialogue of everyone who has made The Spread Zone what it is today.

                                      

It's all in good fun. We make no guarantees, but we've made a lot of dollars for a few people, or a few dollars for a lot of people. We're sure at least one of those things is true.

Peace out fellow gamblers. 

May the Spread Be with You,

Vinny and Marco

Thursday, November 29, 2012

Thursday Thirty-Two? WTF?

THURSDAY THREE LAST WEEK: 1-2 ATS

SEASON TO DATE: 4-2 ATS

Let me just start by saying - this football season has been a blast. Marco and I both look forward to waking up every morning, checking the TSZ Inbox, and talking shop with our new friends from around the globe. When we do well, our readers rejoice and applaud us. When we struggle, they've been there with a kind words of support and encouragement. As the weeks unfold, we are seeing a clearer vision of what TSZ is: A warm and cozy place for like-minded, sports fanatic, gamblers to come and celebrate their victories or curl up in the fetal position and find comfort in defeat.

What an amazing adventure in Internet Sports Gamblogging  this has become. Who knows where TSZ is heading - but for now it's another reminder that the significance of the journey far exceeds the destination. Speaking of which, we have a couple of new followers who have decided to officially join TSZ's community.

TSZ Warmly Welcomes: Noah G. from NorCal I'd like to introduce you to Frank S. (I'm assuming that's Frank the Tank) from Raleigh, North Carolina. Even though it's disturbing to us how many New York Giants fans there are in the world (still not over the Kyle Williams fumble last January), we're glad you're both here and appreciate your input below.

Now to the business side of things.

As the early submissions trickled in Tuesday afternoon and almost every team in the NFL was represented, Marco and I started to have some concerns about the future of our Thursday Three. We considered turning it into a contest, weeding out the Chiefs, Raiders, and Cardinals fans, and offering the first ever TSZ t-shirt to the reader with the best record come playoff time. Then we remembered we don't have t-shirts, and better yet our regular, classy, top shelf gamblers started sending in their picks. Now we have three, clear-cut winners, and an honorable mention or two.

On the topic of t-shirts, however, if any of our readers have more artistic talent than Marco or me - i.e. stick figures with googly eyes - send us an idea for a TSZ logo. If we like it, we'll use it when we get big enough to merchandise. We can't offer you anything return except the aforementioned first t-shirt ever - hand-crafted by yours truly - but if you have the time and want to share in the creative process that is building this fine community of ours, send us some artwork to vinnyandmarco@gmail.com.

Now let's get to that Thursday Three already. We had more submissions than ever this week, and we predict that will bode well for the results - even though #3 will not only be missing from our Friday Five but is also absent on our Wednesday Sixteen. From least to most confident, here they are.

Week 13 Thursday Three: TSZ Fan Picks

#3. New York Giants (-2.5) over WASHINGTON REDSKINS: We're glad we have independent minded gamblers who are willing to go against TSZ picks and willingly lose their money.

-- The NYG are getting healthy in their secondary, which builds confidence up front on the D-line!  The D-line was acting like it was the Super Bowl against the Patriots last week.  RGIII is playing out of his mind, but the Giants on the road will be too much! 

Frank the Tank
Raleigh, NC
New York Giants Fan

-- The Giants had their bye week and the end of the season is near. That means Eli and company are in  championship form and aim to set pace for defending their title. They looked awesome last
week on defense and that will expose the rookie-ness of QB RG3 (who will be basking in his win over the leaderless Cowboys). Giants by a TD.

Texas Todd
Broncos Fan

-- If you can get a parlay on a BobG3 concussion and three cracked ribs, I would take it.

Arty Z.
Austin, TX 
Cleveland Browns Fan

#2. New England Patriots (-7.5) over MIAMI DOLPHINS: What is up with this line? Did Chad Henne go back to the Dolphins?


-- Yeah the Fins looked good last week against Seattle. But so do most teams when Seattle is on the road. Patriots had a bye week and scrimmaged a local community college team in Jersey on Thursday, so I feel like they will be prepared to wreak havoc down in Miami. Tannenhill has come back down to earth in recent weeks and we have seen that the Pats can make rookie QBs look very unLUCKy. So patriots should be able to at least win by 10 this week as Brady and his Uggs improve their MVP chances. 

Luis G.
Long Island, New York
Steelers Fan

-- Bill Belichick is a terrible human being. He seems to take pleasure in not only beating teams but humiliating them. While this may make him a terrible sportsmen he is a gamblers best friend and the Patriot's are a spread covering machine. Brief side note, at $7.5 million per year you think he would lose the hoodie from the homeless Rocky Balboa collection.

Jimmy the Weasel
Rams Fan


#1. Houston Texans (-5.5) over TENNESSEE TITANS: Two-thirds of the submissions included the Texans, so nice going TSZ readers.

--Who plays for the Titans? I had to look it up. Hasslebeck..... i thought he opened a car dealership in AZ 2 years ago. Chris Johnson can run but not on Houston. Unless it is to the nearest strip club and then he is All-World. Nate Washington is their leading receiver. Have you heard of him? Me neither.

Noah G.
Northern California
New York Giants Fan


--Tenn just lost to Jacksonville. Houston has had 9 days off after winning two OT games in less than 5 days. A rested Texan team that wants the number one seed claims victory early and
cruises to a two TD win.

Texas Todd
Broncos Fan

-- The line in Australia is -6.5 & I'm still taking them.  I'm selecting this game purely on form and games won and lost 10-1 to titans 4-7. I'm surprised the line isn't greater. Texans are my tip for Super Bowl :)

John
Melbourne, Australia
New York Giants Fan

-- The Weasel see's the 5th ranked Texans run offense doing bad things to the 27th ranked run defense of the Titans. It's no coincidence that 98% of the betting populous are taking the Texans and giving the points. Stats and psychology can't be wrong.


Jimmy the Weasel
Rams Fan, but not when gambling


HONORABLE MENTION: New Orleans, Jacksonville, and Chicago

Final Thursday Three TSZ Rankings for Week 13

1. Houston Texans (12)
2. New England Patriots (8)
3. New York Giants (7)
4. New Orleans Saints (5)
    Jacksonville Jaguars (5)
5. Chicago Bears (4)
6. Indianapolis Colts (3)
7. Cincinnati Bengals (2)
    Dallas Cowboys (2)
    Baltimore Ravens (2)

*First place votes get 3 points, second place 2, third place 1.

If you use our fan picks, keep in mind the sample size is still pretty small. Our hope is that as it grows, we'll have a better sense of what a solid bet is according to the TSZ fan base. Thank you all for participating. We try to include everyone if you chose one of the Thursday Three, but if you didn't, try again next week. Picks across the board were solid - I was obviously joking about the Raiders and Chiefs fans - they only exist in Marco's house.

Good luck, fellow gamblers.

May the Spread Be with You,

Vinny and Marco


#1. Coffee Donations are Much Appreiated: Feel free to buy us a cup of Joe anytime - top right of the page. It takes a lot of caffeine to keep The Spread Zone running, and we'd love to build this into more than just a hobby. If you'd rather wait and see how you do with our picks, that's fine. If you appreciate what we're doing regardless of the outcome, you can donate anytime. Thanks again to everyone who has done so already. It feels like a warm, delicious compliment every time.

#2. Follow us on Twitter @vinnyandmarco. Shoot the S-word with Marco while you're riding the gambling roller coaster.

#3. Now that we have the support and appreciation of fellow handicappers, we feel like The Spread Zone has as much potential as any free gambling website out there. We always appreciate feedback and suggestions. Like my favorite baseball team likes to say, "Together We're Giant." 





Wednesday, November 28, 2012

NFL Week 13 Picks ATS: The Young and the Rested

Like sand through the hourglass, so is the money in our wallets...


LAST WEEK: 8-8 ATS - Seventh straight week at/above .500

SEASON TO DATE: 98-79 ATS

THURSDAY THREE FAN PICKS: 1-2 ATS / 4-2 ATS on the season


FRIDAY FIVE CONFIDENCE PICKS:2-3 ATS last week, but still 21-10 ATS on the season.


Here's the link to this week's Friday Five:

http://thespreadzone.blogspot.com/2012/11/friday-five-for-frappuccinos.html

One of the best things about sports is that it contains within it an infinite number of on-going soap operas, mini-series, comedies, dramas, ABC After School Specials - Why Ricky Took Ritalin - and even the occasional Broadway musical.

"When you're a Jet you're a Jet all the way, 
from the moment you stand up on media day
When you're a Jet if you step in some poo,
You've got fifty-four brothers pointing fingers at you.
If you make a mistake, son
You'd better atone
Because when you're a Jet, man
You're always alone." 

Okay, that's all the fake lyric writing I have in me this morning, but I think Matt Stone and Trey Parker will be calling us very soon.

The various story lines in sports are what keep us interested. Do we love dynasties or do we love to hate them? Are we drawn in by the heart-warming tales of triumph, or do we prefer when Goliath comes along and rights the universal ship? Are we thrilled when players go down with life-threatening injuries, mumbling, "I'll bet he can't sexually assault girls now," or do we like to see historic rivals battling it out at full strength? Whatever your likes, dislikes, passions, or detestation, sports has it all.

Combine that with gambling and you have a well that will never run dry, because depending on where you're sitting the story changes. Last week we couldn't believe that the San Diego Chargers couldn't stop a fourth down and twenty-nine and will probably never trust them again. Half of you reading this might have a fonder memory of Ray Rice being the most amazing human athlete you've ever seen and have vowed to always take the Ravens no matter what. Well, this week (spoiler alert) - both of those perspectives are the right ones to have.

Within the various plots in sports, there are trends. As gamblers, we seek those out and scrutinize whether they're relevant or obscure. As we've discussed here at TSZ, blindly following historic numbers is a fools game, but there are certain statistics that are tough to argue with. Last week we read that teams favored by double digits playing against division rivals are 2-22 ATS and yet we still rolled the dice on the Denver Broncos thinking, "This is one of those two." This week Marco found a couple of compelling stats which we will include in our analysis, the most compelling of which was that after Week 10, teams with more rest win/cover 74% of the time. That is significant to us, and (second spoiler alert) explains several of our choices today. 

Before we get to our picks, we have a couple of warm TSZ welcomes to make. 

TSZ Welcomes: First of all, give mass media, scrutinizing, spotlight shining welcome to Jet Joe. It wasn't intentional, but now that I see the connection, the song above is for you Joe. We also have a new behind the scenes follower - Noah G. - who is a long time BFF of mine. His scintillating Thursday Three submission may have just landed him a TSZ job as Executive Director of One Liners. Glad you're here, buddy. 

If you didn't read yesterday's post, remember that my mother-in-law says this will be the week of the "ground animal" - specifically cats. Meowwww. 

Okay, let's get rolling on our Week 13 Picks ATS, which as usual begins with Thursday Night Football. And would you look at that - it's actually a good game. Somebody please post when the last time that happened. As usual, our picks come first with the line in parentheses and HOME TEAMS in CAPS.

Thursday Night Football

New Orleans Saints (+3.5) over ATLANTA FALCONS: The Saints are playing inspired, playoff-focused football, which is good because their playoff essentially begin tomorrow. We like Jacquizz Rodgers getting more touches for Atlanta, but no matter who gets the victory it won't be by a margin larger than three. Although Atlanta is 10-1, they've only beaten two teams with records above .500 - Denver in Week 2 and Tampa Bay last week - and at home they're average margin of victory is about 4 points. New Orleans resume isn't much stronger, but one of their two strong wins came against Atlanta three weeks ago. The numbers pit a Saints team that is 11-2 SU in its last 13 versus the Falcons (6-1 ATS within their division recently) against a Falcons team that is 16-3 SU in their last 19 as a favorite. In a dome, on turf, in a shootout, we'll take Drew Brees to keep it close enough to cover and probably win. 

CHICAGO BEARS (-3.5) over Seattle Seahawks: The Seadderall Seahawks (thank you Noah G.) are going down in a blaze of secret methamphetamine use. Maybe that's why Pete Caroll looks so good at 61. With cornerbacks Richard Sherman and Brandon Browner out on suspension for violating the league's drug policy, a karmic retribution has now been dealt for the Replacement Ref blunder weeks ago. If there is reincarnation, Seattle will be coming back as a slow-moving water mascot like a manatee. As for Chicago, Brandon Marshall will go off against a secondary full of untreated ADHD backups as Seattle falls to 14-4-1 ATS in their last 19 as an underdog. Bears in a blowout at home.


Jacksonville Jaguars (+6.5) over BUFFALO BILLS: Okay, okay. We like Kool Aid. We'll drink some. The Bills aren't talented enough to be favored by more than three points against any team in the NFL. The Jags are playing better football behind their new mustached leader Chad Henne and stud wideouts Justin Blackmon and Cecil Shorts. Even TE Mercedes Lewis is back to having fantasy value. Jacksonville is 6-0 ATS on the road this year and the road team has won 6 of the last 8 meetings between these two teams. Take the ground animal getting the points.

Carolina Panthers (-3.5) over KANSAS CITY CHIEFS: Brady Quinn dates gymnast Alicia Sacramone resulting in a Curse of the Hot WAG. 

http://www.thespreadzone.blogspot.com/2012/08/curse-of-hot-wag.html 

SuperCam continues to date himself, which is a good omen for his land dwelling, cat team. The Panthers have also been very good on the road recently 7-2 ATS while the Chiefs can't even win in the confines of Arrowhead 3-13 SU over two seasons worth of home games. Panthers by a touchdown.

New England Patriots (-7.5) over MIAMI DOLPHINS: Marco's cousin coached Tom Brady's sister in soccer. Due to the three degrees of separation, Marco bets Brady covers every week. Vinny, on the other hand, is two degrees of Kevin Bacon from the "Dance Moms" woman who looks like a manatee. We were going to say push, but Marco won rock-paper-scissors. And this line is ridiculous. Can you say Friday Five preview? Only if you can also say, "Here's a frapaccino guys." 


      
NEW YORK JETS (-4.5) over Arizona Cardinals: This is our first case of the Young and the Rested. With the extra down time/prep time, the Jets team will take advantage of a Kolb-less Cardinals offense. New York's RBs Greene and Powell will rush for a combined 200 yards as they control time of possession and the scoreboard. The Cardinals have never beaten the Jets in New York, but if you really want a solid bet, the Under is 10-3 in Arizona's last 13 road games. 

Indianapolis Colts (+4.5) over DETROIT LIONS: Andrew Luck needs one more victory to break the record for most wins by a rookie QB taken #1 in the draft. This, along with a group of 6,000 shaved-headed senior citizens making the trip to D-town, will motivate the Colts as they continue to position themselves for playoffs. Although one of TSZs biggest fans points out that Luck has 14 turnovers and only 4 TDs on the road this year, we believe he will take care of the ball and keep this game close just long enough for Jim Schwartz to screw it up. The Lions are the only Young and Rested who won't rebound well after losing to Houston on Thanksgiving Day - a game I think we all agree they should have won...several times.


Minnesota Vikings (+9.5) over GREEN BAY PACKERS: Compelling stat alert - A team playing their second consecutive road game after losing the previous game on the road cover 60% of the time. Minnesota fits that criteria, plus that's a huge line for a division game against a team that if nothing else plays for pride well. We'll take that percentage along with the large point spread. Stats don't support this pick with Green Bay going 8-1 ATS in their last 9 division games and the Vikings stinking it up at 2-12 SU in their last 14, so if you're going to go you're own way, this might be one to do it with. 


San Francisco Forty Niners (-7.5) over ST. LOUIS RAMS: They tied a few weeks ago, but this 49ers offense with rookie QB Colin Kaepernick is more explosive. Expect San Francisco to put up more points and give up fewer this time around. Your fake punts won't be enough this time, Jeff Fisher. Fool me once, shame on you. SF by at least two touchdowns. We're trying to create west coast media bias - please join the hype.

Houston Texans (-5.5) over TENNESSEE TITANS: Another rested team. Although the Texans are now 0-9 ATS after an OT game, we believe that streak comes to an end on Sunday. Cornerback Jonathan Joseph says he will play this week and he will greatly improve the struggling Houston secondary. With inverse ATS records within their division recently (Texans 8-2, Titans 2-8), this line feels too good to be true. This is cause for pause as we like to say here at TSZ, but we believe recent play and injuries drove this line down. 




Cincinnati Bengals (-1.5) over SAN DIEGO CHARGERS: You screwed us too many times ridiculously inconsistent Chargers. As Ron Burgundy would say "Go fuck yourself San Diego." Plus they are playing a ground animal. Hiss, hiss, grrrrrr. San Diego also sucks against the AFC North - 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10. Go Dalton, go Green, go to SoCal and stomp the crap out of the Philip and the Downward Spiral Gang. 


Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+7.5) over DENVER BRONCOS: Before betting lines were published, we looked at this match-up and agreed to take the Bucs if they got at or over a touchdown. Granted the Broncos have a better pass defense by a long shot, but Tampa Bay runs the ball well and stops the run better. They are the ATS Darlings of the NFL at 8-2-1 ATS on the season, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games, and 6-1-1 ATS as an underdog. We appreciate the more consistent Tampa Bay of 2012 and vow not to bet against them...this week.

OAKLAND RAIDERS (-1.5) over Cleveland Browns: Crack open a Dos Equis, Cleveland Browns, because you are officially the most interesting team in football. You grasp defeat from the jaws of victory, win games by fewer points than turnovers you create, are an ATS Bowl playoff contender, and are dwelling in the cellar at 3-8. Now, we'd like to introduce you to your West Coast Doppelganger - the Oakland Raiders - except for the competitive part of your character. Blast from the past, Colt McCoy is back and hasn't aged a bit. At fifteen, he is the youngest (looking) player in the league and still can't throw a completion, while the Raiders offense is ready to explode after so many deflating losses. Denarius Moore and Brandon Meyers lead the Oakland offensive attack as Carson Palmer gets a do-over and pretends the Browns are the Bengals.


BALTIMORE RAVENS (-0.5) over Pittsburgh Steelers: Remember at the beginning of the season when Joe Flacco said he was one of the top QBs in the league? What a joke?! Flacco is now right under Cutler on our shit list. Put either one of them on Chiefs and see how elite they would feel. The Ravens do play better at home - haven't lost in 16 games, but they are a surprising 2-6 ATS in their last eight. Meanwhile, the Steelers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games. Talk about a Shitty Stats Bowl. This is where the line is in our pool right now, so feel free to write with questions as it moves.

DALLAS COWBOYS (-7.5) over Philadelphia Eagles: Philadelphia has no Vick, no Desean Jackson and they waived Babin who leads the NFL in sacks since 2010. They also don't have anything to play for at this point. Dallas, on the other hand, is in the same boat as New Orleans - clinging to their playoff lives. Young and Rested, Romo and Bryant will put together their best game of the season at the right time, breaking the current Dallas streak of 0-8 ATS at home. Pathetic, right? Don't think Vegas doesn't know that you know that we know all of that shit. Cowboys put down the "pointy birds" once and for all. 

WASHINGTON REDSKINS (+2.5) over New York Giants: Very young and very rested, RG3 will give New York fits in the traditional "week off" after their "week on." The Giants are toying with the idea of playoff mode, but they already have 7 wins and know they probably only need three more with five to go. They pace themselves. The Redskins, on the other hand, are 4-0 ATS in their last four against the Giants and 9-2 ATS within their division. We think this is Las Vegas's reverse psychology with a 2.5 line that begs you to take the Giants. Now I'm really confused. Doesn't it hurt your brain sometimes. 

So there you have it global TSZ readers, followers, or just plain fans. We hope you got something out of our picks. We always get something out of yours, so don't forget to submit your Thursday Three. The more submissions we get, the better your chances of winning. That's just plain science. Here's the outline in case you need it. 


May the Spread Be With Us All,

Vinny and Marco


Reminders: 

#1. Coffee Donations are Much Appreiated:
 Feel free to buy us a cup of Joe anytime - top right of the page. It takes a lot of caffeine to keep The Spread Zone running, and we'd love to build this into more than just a hobby. If you'd rather wait and see how you do with our picks, that's fine. If you appreciate what we're doing regardless of the outcome, you can donate anytime. Thanks again to everyone who has done so already. It feels like a warm, delicious compliment every time.

#2. If you shop at Amazon.comOldnavy.comebay.com, please click on these links through our blogs because allegedly we might get a commission. So far, we haven't, but we don't know if anyone is clicking. Also, please tell us where you do shop, and we'll start an Shop Here List.

#3. Now that we have the support and appreciation of fellow handicappers, we feel like The Spread Zone has as much potential as any free gambling website out there. We always appreciate feedback and suggestions. Like my favorite baseball team likes to say, "Together We're Giant." 

Tuesday, November 27, 2012

The Non-Losing Streak is Alive and Well

After all that moping and whining and self-flagellation (no - that's not what it sounds like), Marco and I managed to scratch and claw our way back to 8-8 ATS for Week 12. Way to go Monday Night Football that I didn't watch a single second of. I was joking with one of our followers that it was probably during games like that when gambling was first invented. It was either that or soccer. "I'll take Manchester United," said the polite, Oliver Twist-sounding bookie, "and give you five-eighths of a goal. Or you can parlay that with the Over, which is 1...again." I was going to make fun of cricket, but we have a new fan in Australia, so I'm going to kill him with kindness just a little bit longer. That brings us to the all-important:

New Friends of TSZ: We'd like to give warm welcomes to a new followers Todd S. (is that you Texas Todd?), and DrFlo. Todd (I believe) has been a prolific resource to The Spread Zone, while DrFlo is relatively new but comes with a terrific moniker. You might even win a prize a the next Zony Awards with that one, DrFlo. We would also like to welcome the aforementioned John, who is now spreading the word about TSZ in Australia. And we thought Canada felt international. Thanks for representing us down under, John.

Today's post is a reminder to our readers to please participate in TSZ's Thursday Three: Fan Picks. Much like our Friday Five last week (2-3 ATS), our fan's Thursday Three took a hit, too (1-2 ATS), but we believe that result was in part due to a small sample size. Overall, however, the Thursday Three is still 4-2 ATS, and relies on the knowledge and confidence of TSZ friends and readers to build on that success.

Before you sit down to crunch the numbers, roll the dice, sacrifice animals, or whatever else you do to assure your gambling success, please know that my mother-in-law - the one who is convinced that it is the year of the "pointy" bird (Falcons and Seahawks) - has received a psychic hit with regards to Week 13. Hold on to your hats - but not your water wings - because this will be "the week of the ground animal." Are you starting to get a sense of what my Sundays have been like lately? Maybe I should get her on board as an analyst - or at the very least we should have a Psychic Hit section.

                                  
                                  Ground Animals Rule

When I told her how many "Ground Animal" mascots there were - sorry un-evolved Dolphins, I'm sure you'll have your week someday - she said she was seeing mostly "cat teams," so if you're keeping score at home watch out for the Panthers, Bengals, Lions, and Jaguars.

Now, let's get to that Thursday Three. We'll also be sending out a reminder e-mail this afternoon to everyone on our mailing list. If you'd prefer to wait until we post our picks we'll have them up by mid-day tomorrow, but Marco and I enjoy and encourage free-thinking gamblers with strong opinions and hopefully solid reasons for having them. We also enjoy and encourage everyone else, so join the fun.

Please read the guidelines, shoot us an e-mail, and come back to see how your picks compare with rest of our community. Top three fan picks will be posted on Thursday.


The Thursday Three: Where Fans Become Experts

Step 1: We have a new e-mail address: vinnyandmarco@gmail.com

Step 2: Include in your e-mail to us the three picks this week - against the spread - you are most confident in. Rank them in order 1 (most confident) to 3 (least confident).

Step 3: Include a sentence or two as to why you think your teams will win and/or cover. Please include stats, history, match-up issues, or your psychic relatives latest "vibe" on the game. 

Step 4: Let us know a little bit about yourself: Tell us where you're from and which team you root for.

Step 5: Send us your picks and your thoughts and check back on Thursday to see if you were a part of the consensus Top Three Picks. Marco and I will tally up the picks and post The Thursday Three along with commentary from you the reader/fan/gambler. 

It's fun and, as usual, it's free.

Vinny and Marco


Reminders: This is a new section we will include at the end of every post. Our goal at The Spread Zone is to help you make money, and if we can scrape together a few pennies with Google Adsense and other Ad revenues, we're going to try to do that. But we need you're help.

#1. Coffee Donations: Feel free to buy us a cup of coffee anytime - top right of the page. It takes a lot of caffeine to keep The Spread Zone running. If you'd rather wait and see how you do with our picks, that's fine. If you appreciate what we're doing regardless of the outcome, you can donate anytime. Thanks again to everyone who has done so already. It has felt like a warm, delicious compliment.

#2. If you shop at Amazon.comOldnavy.comebay.com, please click on these links through our blogs because allegedly we might get a commission. So far, we haven't, but we don't know if anyone is clicking. Also, please tell us where you do shop, and we'll start an Shop Here List.

#3. Now that we have the support and appreciation of fellow handicappers, we feel like The Spread Zone has as much potential as any free gambling website out there. We always appreciate feedback and suggestions. Like my favorite baseball team likes to say, "Together We're Giant." 










\

Monday, November 26, 2012

Monday Morning Quarterback: Week 12 Wrap

Sometimes gambling feels like math.

                           

You spend ages working with numbers, following what you think are the rules, figuring out the variables, adding key factors, subtracting extraneous ones, dividing your time between a healthy life and a questionable compulsion, and hopefully multiplying your money. Then you get to the end of the problem - the end of the game - you check the answer and Bam, Sweet, Awesome, you got it right, you chose the correct team, you covered the spread, the hard work paid off, you're a math/gambling genius, and there's no better feeling in the world.

Other times, however, when flip to the back of the book you discover you were off by an x or a 2y, a half point here or a field goal there. You slump in your suddenly uncomfortable seat as hindsight shines a giant, glaring spotlight on the error of your ways. "Of course," you curse yourself out loud, as you realize you forgot to carry a one or remember that the Bills still suck. "I knew that," you mumble, realizing you just needed to convert units or have a crystal ball that would tell you that every running back in an historically reliable backfield would fumble.

The wonderful difference with gambling, however, is that unlike math you don't have to turn back to the same problem and start over, you don't have to think too long and hard about why a tenth ranked San Diego defense can't stop a 4th down and 29 or why reliable Matt Bryant missed a point-covering field goal at the end of the game, because there's a whole new set of fresh, exciting, potentially uplifting problems staring you in the face every day. Ahhhh, the joyous life of a gambler.

Good morning, TSZ readers. That was my all-inclusive way of saying, "Shit, shit, shit." A disastrous Sunday morning left Marco and I feeling like Thanksgiving was the only thing we were grateful for at all. From 3-0 ATS on Turkey Day to 7-8 ATS on the week, and clinging for dear life to our six week +.500 streak. What a dubious time for us to privatize our Friday Five and almost double our Followers, which brings me to this:

New TSZ Followers: Let's all give a warm welcome to Christina P. This hasn't been our best weekend, Christina, but the atmosphere of tepid optimism at TSZ never changes thanks to the everyone who participates during the good weeks and the tough one.

Coffee Thank You's: Generous donations were made to TSZ yesterday by Tony B. and Brian M., and this morning by David L. We thank you all sincerely for your contributions to building this project of ours. We feel a bit sheepish about this section today, because our incentive program for donations - our Friday Five - only went 2-3 ATS this week. It was our first sub five hundred Friday Five, but the timing couldn't have been worse.

Here's what Marco and I decided we'd like to do: We don't like being wrong, and we like it less at your expense. Any coffee donations sent in are intended to be used towards building a better future for The Spread Zone. That being said, however, we want happy, satisfied readers who are willing continue to participate in dialogue with us and in commentary with each other. So, if you were a coffee donor who feels disgruntled by the lack of value received in our Friday Five, just send us an e-mail saying, "Marco, Vinny, you suck," or "Not very good, guys. I need you to buy me a cup of coffee," and we'll press the old "Issue Refund" button and buy you a cup of Joe in return.

Seriously, please don't hesitate to do this. We will not post "Coffee Un-Thank You's," or feel slighted at all. You will still be forever on our e-mail list and receive free Friday Fives as long as we do them. We just want to get off on the right foot together. Friday Five for Frappacinos will continue and we will be back, but in the meantime we want TSZ to be a resentment-free zone. We want you to be happy and feel supported.

Some mornings, we feel like The Spread Zone has become a cozy and comforting support group for compulsive gamblers - like ourselves - who never, ever want to quit. To wake up after such a disheartening Sunday to a such a large cup of coffee donated by David L. - our first Twitter follower (@vinnyandmarco) - made us feel like winners again, and gave us the courage to come back to TSZ with our heads held high. We want you to have the same feelings. Thank you, David.

We'll have our Week 13 Picks ATS posted by Wednesday this week and we'll be sending a reminder e-mail about our Thursday Three fan picks. I think the small sample size and the New York Giants defense hurt our perfect season this past weekend, so let's get some more input this time around. We really believe that if we put our minds together we'll all be more successful.

Also, if you have a success story you'd like to share with the rest of The Spread Zone about your weekend or a particular game or a fun gambling story, shoot us an e-mail at vinnyandmarco@gmail.com. We need something to keep readers interested on Tuesdays.

Thanks again for all of your support and encouragement and coffee.

See you on flip side,

Vinny and Marco

PS We noticed Hameen posted a question re: some picks this weekend. We would love to get more dialogue in the comments section about questions like his and yours.


Saturday, November 24, 2012

TSZ, I'd Like to Introduce You to...

the 21st Century.

That's right, thanks to Marco being a few years younger than his technologically illiterate counterpart - yours truly - The Spread Zone is now on Twitter. When I was growing up my mother used to write post cards and letters to her mother and sister who lived on the other side of the world. "The art of letter writing," she'd caution me, "is a dying one." Now I'm pretty sure she's rolling over in her urn every time someone tweets. It was her encouragement and support that ultimately cultivated my love of putting pen to paper and later on fingers to keyboard, so I will continue with my strengths while Marco covers the Twitter-sphere. Now you can join him on the roller coaster ride we call Sundays:

@vinnyandmarco

We also endeavor to create a downloadable app soon, because that seems like the thing to do these day. And then we're going to be on Facebook and MySpace and Kindle and YouTube and eventually take over the whole damn world. You're all coming with us, right? See what happens when you buy us coffee? Okay, okay - one thing at time. Here's an Instagram of what I'm thinking right now.

                                       

Mmmm....cupcakes.

So I guess @vinnyandmarco is our Twitter "handle." I'm a little naive to the ways of that world, and have some concerns that I will lose the fun, informative, and cathartic dialogue we get right here at The Spread Zone. Please don't forget me just because I'm not a Twitterer...Tweeter...Twit? Twat? Twot? Whatever. You know what I mean. Your feedback at TSZ is food for my soul, and your comments here have absolutely no character limits. Some even lack character all together - but those are generally mine.

We also need to give out some warm TSZ welcomes, coffee thank you's, and special fan of the week award.

New TSZ Followers: Let's all give a warm welcome to our newest additions - Manny, Luella, Nav, Chris M.James X., Grund King, and Hameen (who has been here for a while, but now it's official). We hope you discover what we've learned this season - that good ideas are made great by the people who foster their growth. That's an extra nod to everyone else. You know how we feel.

Coffee Thank You's: Without generous donations from Chris M., Manny, and Stan, and Laura Z.,the first two paragraphs above would not have been possible. Thank you gentlemen. That was very kind.

Fans of the Week Award: We don't really like playing favorites because we truly believe it takes a village to raise a future multi-million dollar sports betting empire, but we'd like to give special thanks to two of our readers this week.

Mysterio: As one of the early followers of The Spread Zone, Mysterio has been a fearless pioneer in the comments sections, building rapport and community among our readers. This weekend, he did some networking for us and increased our following by almost 50%. Not a bad day's work, Mysterio. Here's to a karmic, cash-filled Sunday for you my friend. Proline, baby. Was that right?

Laura Z: When we first put the "Coffee for Vinny and Marco" button on the site, we didn't expect much to happen. Within a few hours, Laura Z. bought us each a cup of Joe and left us this note:

Dear Vinny and Marco,

You guys are hilarious and I love reading your blog! I use you guys for a couple of games in my Pick'em Pool. Have a great day. 

Regards,
Laura

                                

Being naive to the ways of PayPal, we assumed the donation had been made by one of our followers and ended up mis-crediting our gratitude. The note was so kind and encouraging, however, that it left us feeling a bit unresolved - like John Cousack in Serendipity. Now, at long last, our Kate Beckinsale has reappeared and we can finally say, "Laura, your are - in the sincerest, most elaborate, all-encompassing meaning of the word - totally awesome." If everyone knew the impact of simple gestures such as yours, the world would be a better place. Thank you.

And finally, to our woebegone Willy B. who feels as though our Friday Five for Frappacinos was more sellout than alliteration and community spirit, we hope you'll accept our invitation to e-mail us and continue to be a part of The Spread Zone. We believe you will find that we are, in fact, not too good but rather just good enough to be true.

That's all for today folks. We'll be posting our Friday Five after the games kick off Sunday just so we can keep our integrity. Thank you all for your support and encouragement. Now let's go win our pools, our bets, our pink slips, or just our pride.

May the Spread Be With You,

Vinny and Marco

Reminders: 

#1. Coffee Donations: Feel free to buy us a cup of coffee anytime - top right of the page. It takes a lot of caffeine to keep The Spread Zone running. If you'd rather wait and see how you do with our picks, that's fine. If you appreciate what we're doing regardless of the outcome, you can donate anytime. Thanks again to everyone who has done so already. It has felt like a warm, delicious compliment.

#2. If you shop at Amazon.comOldnavy.comebay.com, please click on these links through our blogs because allegedly we might get a commission. So far, we haven't, but we don't know if anyone is clicking. Also, please tell us where you do shop, and we'll start an Shop Here List.

#3. Now that we have the support and appreciation of fellow handicappers, we feel like The Spread Zone has as much potential as any free gambling website out there. We always appreciate feedback and suggestions. Like my favorite baseball team likes to say, "Together We're Giant." 







Friday, November 23, 2012

Friday Five for Frappuccinos


FRIDAY FIVE LAST WEEK: 4-1 ATS

FRIDAY FIVE SEASON TO DATE: 19-7 ATS 

THANKSGIVING DAY: 3-0 ATS

Good morning faithful TSZ readers. Vinny and Marco here to wish you and yours a very Happy Black Friday. What a strange phenomenon in our capitalistic, American culture. Don't those people fist-fighting over the latest cabbage patch kid, beanie baby, or Call of Duty 25 know that their money could be much better spent on a parlay, a super teaser, or a French tickler. I know that last one's not a gambling term, but look it up - it's still money well spent.

In hopes of taking The Spread Zone to the next level - I know it's hard to imagine that there is a next level for us - we're going to try to recruit new followers, fans, critics, gamblers, or just plain readers by VIP-ing our Friday Five this week. Don't worry, TSZ followers - Curtis, Mysterio, BNB4B, WannaBBallers, Jimmy C., Row007, Edude, Greg, Davez, Fubsy9, Jayden, and Jeff Mayer - you've all earned your keep with witty commentary, insightful e-mails, and coffee donations. The Friday Five will be sent to your e-mail addresses later this morning. If we don't have your e-mail address yet, please send it to us at: vinnyandmarco@gmail.com. We have a lot of them, but I don't want to leave any of you out. Also, we have some unofficial followers, like Todd, Abdool, Salvatore, and John who will also be getting The Friday Five for free.

We're honestly not getting too big for our britches, we just have a vision of where we would like to take this project and it's going to take a lot of caffeine. Man, I sure hope we nail it again, or we're going to fee like a couple of schmucks.

For the rest of you, we're not asking for much - just absolute loyalty, intelligent feedback, community participation, and your first born. Or just a warm, delicious coffee donation. We were going to offer a money back guarantee, but PayPal takes a commission, which would make accounting very messy for all of us. For non-follower who are interested in our Friday Five picks, here are some suggestions we have before you commit.

1. Read earlier posts about The Friday Five to check out our track record. We take a lot of favorites, but in some ways that makes our 19-7 ATS record even more impressive because this has been the year of the underdog. Our worst Friday Five so far has landed us at 3-2 ATS. Have a look at all of our Week 12 picks to decide whether you even care what we have confidence in.

2. Check the comments section below the posts and we believe you will find some of the most well-informed  NFL handicapping fans/gamblers on the Internet. Just look at their original Thursday Three fan picks - 3-0 ATS. Get in now, because they might start asking for coffee, too.

3. Ask yourself if you really need help with this. A radio analyst recently described NFL handicapping as "throwing darts at a dart board." Are we that good, or have we just been lucky enough to hit the bulls eye 19 out of 26 times? We honestly don't know for sure yet, but we're gaining confidence every week.

4. If you decide to join TSZ, this is all we're asking for:

Step 1: Make a coffee donation by clicking on the DONATE button that says "Coffee for Vinny and Marco."

                                      

Step 2: Become a Follower of The Spread Zone. This isn't mandatory, but if you do you will get the Friday Five free for the rest of the season. Otherwise you can donate on a weekly basis to see if you'd like to follow our blog.

                               

Step 3: Send us an e-mail at vinnyandmarco@gmail.com letting us know you donated. Include a confirmation number in case your moniker isn't easily recognized.

Step 4: Reap the benefits of not only our successful Friday Five, but also the supportive, intelligent dialogue of everyone who has made The Spread Zone what it is today.

                                      

It's all in good fun. We make no guarantees, but we've made a lot of dollars for a few people, or a few dollars for a lot of people. We're sure at least one of those things is true.

Peace out fellow gamblers. Enjoy the hell out of Sunday.

Vinny and Marco

Thursday, November 22, 2012

NFL Week 12 Picks ATS: Please Pass the Gravy

LAST WEEK: 8-6 ATS - Sixth straight week above .500

SEASON TO DATE: 90-71 ATS

THURSDAY THREE FAN PICKS: 3-0 ATS - smartest fans on the Inter-Web


FRIDAY FIVE CONFIDENCE PICKS: 4-1 ATS last week, 19-7 ATS on the season.

Hang on a second TSZ readers, I just need to loosen my belt a little bit because I've already had three giant servings of...what's that stuff called again...oh yeah, WINNING. Mmmm...Delicious. Thank you Lions, thank you Redskins, thank you Patriots, and thank you inconsistent, underachieving Cowboys. I hope Jason Garrett follows The Spread Zone and took our betting advice, because he's going to need a little extra cash while he collects unemployment. Big D is for Disaster. 

It's the time of year for gratitude, not gloating, so let's just say we're thankful and move on to the rest of the first 16-0 ATS week in the brief history of TSZ. The Week 12 line-up has a remarkable 11 of the remaining 13 games with lines under 4 points, and 8 of those are handicapped at less than a field goal. Can you say awesome freakin' weekend? Looks like we might build on the record-setting pace of 24% of NFL games this season being decided in the final two minutes. Fasten your seat belts and loosen your wallets, because we're in for a post-Thanksgiving Day football feast. 

As you've probably gathered by now our picks are bold and HOME TEAMS are in CAPS. Now let's pour the gravy on our 3-0 ATS start this week.

CHICAGO BEARS (-0.5) over Minnesota Vikings: This line is obviously suffering from the Jason Campbell Effect. With Cutler returning this week, the line should be more like 6.5, and we would still support the Bears up to a touchdown. An angry Bears defense will be Peanut punching and picking Ponder and Co. all day. Even with Peterson in the backfield the past few years, Minnesota is 0-5 SU and ATS in their last five visits to Chicago, while the Bears are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 against the Vikes. 

CINCINNATI BENGALS (-7.5) over Oakland Raiders: Although the Bengals are a disappointing 3-7-1 in their last 11 home games, they are a team on the rise in the AFC. Dalton and the passing game will be efficient and score big early. The Law Firm will carry them the rest of the way to an easy victory. The most impressive thing lately is the play of Cincinnati's defense. They will cash in on some forced throws from Carson Palmer who will be trying to show up his old team. Play all your Bengals in Fantasy Football this week! 


                                  

Pittsburgh Steelers (-1.5) over CLEVELAND BROWNS: Like we said before, we like Charlie Batch more than Byron Leftwich. Batch will manage the game well by not trying to do too much. This is a game where we think the Steelers dominant defense will win the game. Although Cleveland is 5-1-1 ATS recently within their division, Pittsburgh is 16-1 SU in their last 17 against the Browns. With a 1.5 point line, if you take the Browns, you are really saying they'll win outright. We don't see that happening.

Atlanta Falcons (-1.5) over TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS: This is a classic undervalued versus overvalued match-up. Who has Tampa Bay beaten this year? Carolina twice, Kansas City, Oakland, San Diego, and Minnesota. None of them has the weapons the Falcons have. Matt Ryan throwing 5 picks and no TDs last week was a statistical anomaly. Sure, the Bucs always play the Falcons well, but Atlanta's passing attack will eat up the horrible Tampa Bay secondary. The Bucs will only be the sexy pick until the game kicks off. Fantasy owners, however, remember to start Josh Freeman because he's going to be playing catch-up from the second quarter on. 

Denver Broncos (-10.5) over KANSAS CITY CHIEFS: It looks like Brady Quinn will get the start at quarterback this week for Kansas City, which ultimately made our choice for us. We actually have a hard time betting against Matt Cassel simply because he used to be a Pro-Bowler and could go off any week. No, he was not a professional bowler, but that would have influenced our pick, too. The Broncos are one of the hottest team in football, and are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 trips to Kansas City. Although they are 0-10 ATS in their past 10 games as a favorite of 8+ points, we see that streak coming to an end as Peyton throws for three TDs in the first half alone, and the Denver defense continues its accelerating dominance. Broncos big.


                         

Buffalo Bills (+3.5) over INDIANAPOLIS COLTS: It appears the league has figured out some of Andrew Luck's tendencies. Although the Colts are very good at home - 6-1 SU and ATS of late - the Bills defense is playing better and should be able to disrupt their offense enough to force some timely turnovers. The glaring difference between the two teams is the running game. With Fred Jackson back to spell him from time to time, we see CJ Spiller having a career day as Buffalo wins this outright.

Seattle Seahawks (-3.5) over MIAMI DOLPHINS: What happened to the Dolphins? We'll tell you. They've been running a college football scheme all season to ensure quarterback Ryan Tannehill's success. Unfortunately, while the college season is coming to an end, the NFL goes on...and on. Tannehill should have pulled a Brandon Weeden and stayed in college until he was 29. Like we always say here at The Spread Zone "Leaving college in fours years is like leaving a great party at 9:30 pm." Historically, Seattle is bad on the road and coming out of the bye, but as one of our followers likes to say, "rushing and defense travel well." We'd like to add passing and "pointy birds" to the list. Beast Mode scores two TDs and Wilson throws for a couple more as the Dolphins swim into another defensive net. 

Tennessee Titans (-3.5) over JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS: We do not understand the over-hype for Chad Henne. If the hype were simply around his Movember mustache, we'd totally get it, but it appears people think he's also a talented football player. The fact is he's a career 60% passer who has more INTs than TDs since being drafted by the Dolphins in 2008. Let's face it, ever since losing to Appalachian State his senior year at Michigan, he has basked in mediocrity. Get off the Jaguar bandwagon and come back to reality. Both teams have terrible SU/ATS stats against everything and everyone in recent history, but the Titans are rested and prepared, which is a recipe for a blowout in Jacksonville. 


                                         

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (+1.5) over Baltimore Ravens: A compelling stat we found was that the Ravens are 12-8 ATS in their last 20 against the AFC West. However, a closer look reveals that 9 of those ATS wins came at home, leaving them with an unimpressive 3-7 ATS record when they travel to play this division. The Chargers now have more than just Malcom Floyd and Antonio Gates with the emergence of Danario Alexander in the passing game. Danario has elite skills, but has struggled with injuries his whole career. We see him having a big game, while Ryan Mathews gets back on track running against a soft Baltimore defense. Take the points and the Chargers in a close one.

St. Louis Rams (+2.5) over ARIZONA CARDINALS: Initially we were rolling with the Cards at home, but the announcement of Lindley starting at QB this week changed everything. It feels like Arizona is tanking it. Are they trying to win the Matt Barkley sweepstakes? Since they're starting their third string QB you have to wonder. Any Rams stats we found are deceptive because of their recent history. The important one is that they've covered their last four division games. Jeff Fisher will have his defense ready to exploit the young Arizona QB. We like St. Louis so much, Vinny picked up their defense for his fantasy team.

San Francisco Forty Niners (-2.5) over NEW ORLEANS SAINTS: Much like the Rams above, ATS stats for the Saints (12-2 ATS at home, 6-1 SU vs Niners) will be deceptive. Those numbers didn't pile up with a defense that gives up almost 500 yards/game. Similarly, the Niners are a very different team now than they have been for the past decade. Their defense will slow the Saints offensive attack down, and Frank Gore and Kendall Hunter will run all over the New Orleans defense, making it unimportant whether Alex Smith, Colin Kaepernick, or your grandmother follow the micro-managed John Harbaugh game plan. Just be careful - if it is your grandma, you might lose her for the holidays if she has "the hot hand" this week.


Green Bay Packers (+2.5) over NEW YORK GIANTS: The Packers relish the underdog role, going 9-1 ATS in their last 10, while the Giants are 3-8-1 in their last 12 at home. Aaron Rodgers gets Jordy Nelson back this week, which adds to their more consistent and reliable offense. We do think Eli will bounce back against a shaky Packers secondary, but even his fourth quarter magic will not be enough to pull a rabbit out of this hat. Green Bay rolls to their fifth straight win in New York.


                             

Monday Night Football


Carolina Panthers +2.5 over PHILADELPHIA EAGLES: We recommend not watching this game. It will be ugly and there is a Who's the Boss marathon on TVGN, which will get almost as many laughs. Nick Foles, however, will get his QBR into double digits, and Cam Newton will foolishly do his Superman touchdown routine even though they will only be rolling to their third victory of the season. I think he needs to come up with a Mediocre Man TD dance where he just sits down, takes of his shoes, rubs his feet, and grabs a beer out of the mini-fridge in his sock. We think this will be a one or two point game, so we're taking the points.


Phew. Those extra three games are exhausting. We sure could use a cup of coffee. Nudge, nudge, wink, wink. 

Thanks again to all of our loyal followers. Today is Thanksgiving and we are eternally grateful to you for making The Spread Zone what it is today. We hope you all had a wonderful day with friends, family, food, football, and fun. And, in the spirit of continued alliteration - see you tomorrow for our fabulous Friday Five. 

Happy Holidays and Happy Betting, 

Vinny and Marco


Reminders: This is a new section we will include at the end of every post. Our goal at The Spread Zone is to help you make money, and if we can scrape together a few pennies with Google Adsense and other Ad revenues, we're going to try to do that. But we need you're help.

#1. Coffee Donations: Feel free to buy us a cup of coffee anytime - top right of the page. It takes a lot of caffeine to keep The Spread Zone running. If you'd rather wait and see how you do with our picks, that's fine. If you appreciate what we're doing regardless of the outcome, you can donate anytime. Thanks again to everyone who has done so already. It has felt like a warm, delicious compliment.

#2. If you shop at Amazon.comOldnavy.comebay.com, please click on these links through our blogs because allegedly we might get a commission. So far, we haven't, but we don't know if anyone is clicking. Also, please tell us where you do shop, and we'll start an Shop Here List.

#3. Now that we have the support and appreciation of fellow handicappers, we feel like The Spread Zone has as much potential as any free gambling website out there. We always appreciate feedback and suggestions. Like my favorite baseball team likes to say, "Together We're Giant."