NFL Week 2 Picks Against the Spread

With the always unpredictable Week 1 out of the way - we started out a pedestrian 8-8 - it's time to move forward to the often even less predictable Week 2. Which upstarts are good enough to start 2-0, which historic franchises will actually begin (gasp) 0-2. Not even Marco and I thought it would be the Packers - we just didn't see the big win coming. Did I mention how much I hate Jay Cutler. I've been praying he retires via Twitter so I never have to see his face again. Great article on ESPN about the body language lessons he teaches us all.

http://espn.go.com/blog/playbook/fandom/post/_/id/11380/jay-cutler-inspires-body-language-tips

Could the Saints fall to 0-2? How about the Giants? Is RG3 for real or have people been Griffining all week only to feel ashamed come Sunday afternoon. After hours of scouring the Internet looking for stats and picks and hidden sources, Marco and I learned two things.

1. 8-8 ATS may not be a great start, but it makes us an expert at CBSSports and most other reference sites. The best Week 1 tally was 9-7, so stick around - it's going to get better.

2. Week 2's schedule has all the tell-tale signs of what is commonly known - and trademarked here at The Spread Zone - as The W.O.D., or  The Week of the Dog. On rare occasions in sports, there is a confluence of forces that creates an imbalance so great that almost all of the underdogs on a given calendar three-day weekend cover the spread. With six home dogs, this just happens to be the first W.O.D. of the NFL season.

                       

True, the week did not start that way in Green Bay, but there are exceptions to The W.O.D. which only careful analysis known to gamblers as I.G.F.'s - Instinctual Gut Feelings - can help you identify. Here are our picks for this year's first W.O.D., including our extremely limited IGFs. You might think we're kidding, but we are betting every single game this way. Home team in capitals.

Cleveland Browns (+7.5) over the CINCINNATI BENGALS: The Browns were 3-0 ATS last year against their division. Trent Richard and the underrated Browns defense will keep them in the game just long enough for the Bengals to win behind the Law Firm and A.J.Green on the final drive of the game. Cleveland fans will celebrate being 2-0 against the spread.

BUFFALO BILLS (-2.5) over Kansas City Chiefs: Buffalo will get out front early behind their RB C.J. Spiller, but Matt Cassel's air attack will keep the game within a field goal, but that's all.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (+1.5) over the Minnesota Vikings: Adrian Peterson is a super-human freak coming back so strong and so early from his ACL surgery. Christian Ponder, however, seems to be getting more human  by the week, while Andrew Luck is developing chemistry with his receiving corp. Luck is smart enough to learn from last week and pick apart the Minnesota defense. He can't let RG3 outshine him two weeks in a row, and we even think he'll look better than Aaron Rodgers and Jay Cutler combined.

Baltimore Ravens (+2.5) over the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES: Sure Michael Vick had a horrible game last week, but did you see how much time he had in the pocket on every play. The Ravens defense is not what it used to be, and I expect Vick and McCoy to run all over them. The confident Joe Flacco, however, will counter all of their attacks by throwing his perfect long ball to Torrey Smith multiple times. We'll be talking about the Ravens offense instead of their defense this year. The Ravens will have to win early games as their schedule gets brutal with upcoming Thursday games. I believe they play four games in 18 days or something ridiculous. Especially ridiculous for Old Man Lewis, the second oldest player in the NFL behind only to Rhonde Barber and some obscure kicker.

NEW YORK GIANTS (-7.5) over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers: The Bucs held the Panthers to 11 rushing yards in week 1. Nobody saw that coming, but that was Panthers. This is a disappointed, media-harrassed Giants team that will be out to silence the critics. Look for more than one salsa dance in end zone this week. 

Houston Texans (-7.5) over the JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS: The Jags play with intensity at home. They can stop the run completely, we saw this last year. That will definitely be there plan against Houston, but the Texans defense will play better this week keeping Justin Blackmon and Marcedes Lewis honest. Jacksonville was 4-4 ATS at home last year and they straight up beat the Buccaneers and the Ravens. Weird stuff happens in Florida. Weird stuff won't happen in this game as the Texans win easily. 

New Orleans Saints (-2.5) over the CAROLINA PANTHERS - The Saints could not solve RG3. How will they stop CN1? Just watch.

Arizona Cardinals (+13.5) over the NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS: "My name is Kevin Kolb. I'm tired of being nonchalant about stuff. I'm gonna start being chalant. I will beat the Patriots, Motherfucker!" Kolb-Fitzgerald for at least two TDs. Patrick Peterson (Arizona Special Teams specialist and shutdown cornerback) will also have a huge game. How 'bout dem Cardinals!...losing by less than 14 points to New England. Bank it. 

ST. LOUIS RAMS (+2.5) over the Washington Redskins: Golly, how good did Jeff Fisher look last week? And his team too? They should've won that game and that will give them confidence this week as they play a team full of false confidence. Thanks to the Saints defense last week, RG3 still thinks he's in college. St. Louis has probably the fastest defense in football. Sure, sometimes they run right by the ball carrier, but they are fast. Bradford is likes having Amendola healthy and will go to him often. Bradfording will be the new craze this week. 

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (+2.5) over the Dallas Cowboys: Dallas hasn't had two consecutive solid performances since the days of Troy Aikman. Seattle is a tough place to play. The Seahawks are 13-5 ATS at home the past three years , while the Cowboys are a disappointing 2-8 ATS coming off a division win. Seahawks will surprise a lot of teams this year, starting with Romo and Co. Look for a healthier Marshawn Lynch to have a big day on the ground. Time of possession by Seattle will be the key to victory.

SAN DIEGO (-5.5) over the Tennessee Titans: San Diego has won the last eight meetings, and is an  impressive 19-3 ATS, including 7-0 against these Titans in their last 22 versus AFC South teams.

Oakland Raiders (-2.5) over the MIAMI DOLPHINS: The Week 2 Sucky Bowl. We're taking the road team. Miami has the time zone and comfort playing in the heat advantages, but the Raiders have the depth and talent edge. Come the second half, the Raiders will look like Pittsburgh did in Denver, but by then it will be too late. Hopefully Tannenhill gets knocked out of the game early, because we miss Matt Moore. Have you seen him on HBO Hard Knocks. Awesome. If only his name were Marco instead of Matt. 

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-5.5) over the NEW YORK JETS: The Jets finally have a playmaker in Stephen Hill at wide receiver. This helps spread out their offense, which helps Sanchez play to his potential. Unfortunately, his potential isn't enough to beat elite defenses like the Steelers. Sorry Tebow fans, but he's probably looking at another five carries for six yards. 

SAN FRANCISO FORTY-NINERS (-6.5) over the Detroit Lions: That's right folks, this is our I.G.F. of the W.O.G. Jim Harbaugh loves destroying people he likes. We haven't seen how bad he destroys people he hates. Jim Shwartz will lose big and probably get clothes-lined after the game. Harbaugh only hates one person more than Shwartz and that's Jim Kelly for leaking a story to the media prior to an AFC playoff game that Harbaugh faked injuries. Harbaugh found Kelly and took a swing at him, only to miss and break his hand. Well, he said it was broken.

Denver Broncos (+2.5) over the ATLANTA FALCONS: Sometimes you just really want a team to win, so you pick them when betting. It's impressive we kept the emotion out of it up until our last pick. Go Peyton! If, however, you have an I.G.F. about this game, run with it. Or better yet, pass with it because they're playing on turf in a dome. 


For those of you counting at home, turns out our late IGFs made this not a WOD at all. Keep in mind that Marco and I follow Important Gambling Tip #1, 

http://thespreadzone.blogspot.com/2012/08/friends-dont-let-friends.html

which means we "talk it out" all week and things change. Best to tune in Sunday morning. 

We reserve the right to call an audible on the Monday night game, too, depending on how our pool is going, so tune back in.

Vinny and Marco