Thursday Night Lights: Bears vs Packers

Remember those old good news bad news jokes:

Doctor: I have some good news and some bad news.
Patient: What's the good news?
Doctor: The AMA is going to name a new disease after you.

or

Wife: I have some good news and some bad news.
Husband: What's the good news?
Wife: I came across a picture that's worth 250,000.
Husband: That's great. What's the bad news.
Wife: It's of you and your secretary.

Well, this week's NFL package is kind of like that:

Vinny: Hey Marco, I've got some good news and some bad news.
Marco: What's the good news?
Vinny: Looks like Thursday night football is here to stay, and tonight we have an awesome Bears-Packers division rivalry.
Marco: That's great. What's the bad news?
Vinny: Turns out tonight's game and the Monday Night Broncos-Falcons are the delicious, toasted, Boudin Bakery sourdough bread wrapped around a giant Who Gives A Shit Sandwich. 

Okay, maybe we're being a little harsh. The Lions-Niners game might be a small sliver of Mortadella or some other obscure processed meat, because the only reason we're interested is the residue of 2011's Handshakegate.

Tonight, however, we have a game for the ages. The Green Bay Packers, coming off a stellar 2011 campaign and a disappointing playoff exit will be hosting their vastly improved division rival Chicago Bears. Chicago is coming off a 41-21 Welcome To the NFL party they threw for Andrew Luck, while Green Bay lost at home to the San Francisco Forty-Niners for the first time since 1990. Both teams are Top Ten Super Bowl favorites. This should be a doozie.

The current line has The Packers favored by 6.5 points at home. Some ATS stats support picking the Cheese Heads here because Green Bay has owned this match-up of late, going 9-2 ATS, and winning and covering both games last year. The favorite in this series is also 5-2 ATS in the last 7. That being said, I think New Orleans taught us a little something about ATS dominance last week going into their week 1 loss at home to the rookie-driven Redskins with an 11-1 ATS record in their last 12 games in domes.

So, Curse of Cutler's Hot Wag aside ( http://www.thespreadzone.blogspot.com/2012/08/curse-of-hot-wag.html ), we're taking The Bears this week to cover on the road. We think Green Bay will have enough to win, but probably only by 3 or 4 points.

Pick: Bears + 6.5

                 

Here's hopin' anyway.

Enjoy the shit sandwich, and come back for the rest of our picks tomorrow.

Vinny and Marco