Confucius once wrote, "To ignore the facts, doesn't change the facts." He also said, "Misfortune is the kind of fortune that never misses," in which case Marco and I fully intend to be the misfortune of many. So strap on your wallets, my friends, and let's makes some money.
Home Dawgs Take Cover
In the early weeks of the season, we're always on the look out for underdogs playing at home. It's a brand new year, the fans have renewed hope, and anything is possible. Except for the Cleveland Browns covering against the Eagles. There are a few solid home dawgs out there, so make sure you snatch them up.
Atlanta Falcons @ Kansas City Chiefs (+1.5): Matt Cassel to Dwayne Bowe will be back in full effect, while the finesse running of Jamaal Charles will be complimented nicely by the hard-nosed Peyton Hillis. Meanwhile the Falcons, who lost a similar opening day game last year in Chicago, have lost by a combined 108-23 on their last three visits to Arrowhead Stadium. Their pass-happy, imbalanced offensive attack will ultimately lead them to losing a nail-biter. Take the points.
Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2.5): Let the sophomore slump begin for Cam Newton. He may be 6'5", but his biggest target Steve Smith is 5'9" on a good day and the compensatory anger he plays will fades a little bit each year. Josh Freeman, on the other hand, will bounce back with his new weapon Vincent Jackson and co-star RB Doug Martin. Plus 80% of the public is betting on the Panthers, and that's not how Vegas makes money. Take the points.
Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals (+2.5): Everyone is jumping on the Seahawk bandwagon now that they made the bold move of starting the "mature" Russell Wilson. Sorry, old doesn't mean mature in the NFL or anywhere for that matter. John Skelton is 6-2 as a starter for the Cards, while Seattle is 3-13 overall and 3-11-2 ATS on grass over the past three seasons. I think Coach Carroll will seriously be missing college football by the end of this year.
San Diego Chargers @ Oakland Raiders (+1.5): Oakland is a little banged up right now, which will slow down their passing attack, but Darren McFadden will more than make up for it, running all over the Chargers. Phillip Rivers, who had six more kids in the off-season will be tired and forced to pass early and often. His frustration will eventually lead to the his demise and he will demonstrably take it out on the fans in the Black Hole and have to be escorted to safety.
The Bigger the Spread...
You know that old expression right? Some people are afraid of giving up anything more than 7 points in a football game. And rightfully so. Early in the season, however, is a time when the disparity between teams is more evident than ever. These are the teams that will cover and cover big.
Indianapolis Colts @ Chicago Bears (-9.5): Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall are reunited in Chicago. Just think what they can do without the altitude holding them back. Plus Michael Bush gives them a terrific second threat in the backfield to go with Forte. Meanwhile, the Colts have a long way to go on defense, and although he'll hit his favorite targets often, playing from behind will force a couple of mistakes that will cost them.
Philadelphia Eagles (-8.5) @ Cleveland Browns: Michael Vick is rumored to have a coat of armor around his whole torso, and the manufacturer gives a 100% guarantee that he will not get injured - at least in the torso. Shady McCoy, the most talented player in his own mind, will have a monster game against the Browns defensive unknowns. Cleveland QB, Brandon Weeden, without Justin Blackmon to throw to will be missing college badly by the end of the first quarter. Besides, the Browns just lost one of their most hated villains, Art Moddel, which will leave them feeling an emptiness that can only be filled by the loss of misdirected anger.
St. Louis Rams @ Detroit Lions (-9.5): RB Kevin Smith will have a huge game, complimenting the air attack of Matthew Stafford and Megatron. There are just too many weapons for Detroit. On the other side, people are calling Sam Bradford the new David Carr. I feel sorry for Stephen Jackson, wasting the best years of what could have been an amazing career playing for a team that has won 15 games in 5 years. Detroit is a team on the rise while St. Louis is steeping in sub-mediocrity.
Washington Redskins @ New Orleans Saints (-9.5): RG3, although he appears to be strong and fast and athletic in all of his pre-season commercials, is no Cam Newton. He will give you some decent fantasy points, but the reality is he is playing in a faster league with bigger, stronger, quicker defenses. Everyone expects a letdown from the suspension depleted Saints, but their 12th man - the crowd and the dome - will compel them to cover yet another home game. They are 11-1 ATS in their last 12. That's dominance.
Miami Dolphins @ Houston Texans (+10.5): Foster and Tate will likely combine for 250 yards, while Tannehill will struggle mightily without his Top Rated WAG by his side to distract the on-coming blitzes. Miami is quite possibly one of the worst teams in the NFL and may not score at all - save a field goal in garbage time. We would have taken this one with a 20 point spread.
New England Patriots (-6.5) @ Tennessee Titans: This is a tough pick. Knowing that the past 11 Super Bowl runners up haven't covered their opening game the following season tempts us to follow that trend and take the Titans. Jake Locker has the most powerful arm in the NFL now, and it will be on display. Most throws will go to Washington and Cook, but a few will go to a much-improved Patriots defense and Tom Brady, Gronk, and their new-found running game will take care of the rest.
If Jesus Were a Cowboy
Buffalo Bills (+3.5) @ New York Jets: With off-season signing DE Mario Williams fortifying the Bills defense and the off-season signing of QB (??) Tim Tebow fortifying the Jets place in future-heaven, this game will come down to an explosive offense taking down a pedestrian one. Sanchez will be looking over his shoulder like a pitcher with Mike Trout on second base wondering when the Wildcat will come in and eat him alive.
Jacksonville Jaguars (+4.5) @ Minnesota Vikings: Since neither team has an offense to evaluate, this game will come down to the better defense winning. The Metrodome advantage hasn't been what it used to be since it got snowed in two seasons ago. Blaine Gabbart's crazy high Wonderlic score gets the Jags an automatic two points while the Jags underrated kicker Josh Scobee takes care of the rest, leading Jacksonville to the 5-0 victory.
San Francisco Forty-Niners @ Green Bay Pakers (-5.5): This is my blind spot, which is why Marco gets to pick the Niner games early in the season. Most people this this will be a close, defensive battle. Marco says they're wrong, that the Cheese Heads will pass all over the Niner secondary. It will be exciting when Randy Moss scores a TD on opening day, but he'll be overshadowed by Jordy Nelson, Greg Jennings, Randall Cobb, and Jermichael Finley all catching a TDs.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Denver Broncos (-1.5): They don't call him Prime Time Peyton for no reason. Could there be a safer bet? Maybe if he were ten years younger, had a healthy neck, and were still playing in a sea-level dome. Nonetheless, look for Peyton to step up and hit his receivers, including his two TEs Dressens and Tamme at key moments. McGahee will control the ball and time of possession, leading the Broncos handily over the aging Steelers.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens (-6.5): The Ravens won last year's match-ups by 7 and 8 points, coverying both times. The Bengals were 2-6 ATS last year, so until they prove they can win those games or if you believe the Ravens will miss the post-season, don't put your money on them. Ray Rice will have a monster week for fantasy owners like myself, running for well over 100 yards and catching for 50 more. Although the Ravens D isn't what it used to be, chemistry and the recent death of Modell will unite them in spirit and Flacco will take care of the rest.
That's it for Week 1 Picks ATS, fellow degenerate gamblers. Take it all or take some but don't take it to Vegas or you will take it in the ass. Find fellow chumps and bet them.
Peace out.
Vinny and Marco
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