It was Marco's cousin. Apparently his best friend's sister's aunt's boyfriend, a recovering addict turned replacement ref, has been bragging to all of his NA friends that igniting home crowds by throwing questionable yellow flags is the best high he's experienced since giving hand jobs for meth in the New Amsterdam district of Baltimore. It's no wonder 14 home teams won last week.
"Woohoo. This is awesome."
Unfortunately, we had a new variable to factor in. Fortunately, we had it just in time. Here are the facts about our Week 3 Picks ATS. Home team in CAPS as usual:
CHICAGO BEARS (-7.5) over the St. Louis Rams: The Rams will be over-valued after starting the year 2-0 ATS (indoors, at home). Conversely, the Bears are coming off a disappointing loss in Green Bay, which is why the hook is dangling there for bettors to take the underdog. Chicago is 8-2 ATS coming off a division loss, so look for them to rebound and cover against a front line that has been incapable of defending Sam Bradford.
CLEVELAND BROWNS (+3.5) over the Buffalo Bills: With their rollicking history of shootouts - Browns winning 8-0 and 6-3 in '07 and '09 and the Bills avenging the losses 13-6 in 2010 - look for this to be a game of centimeters. The Bills on grass - not awesome, since it doesn't grow in Buffalo but four months a year. Look for the Browns to contain Spiller and become the front-runners in the ATS Super Bowl, which is very real and meaningful to Cleveland fans.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-2.5) over the Jacksonville Jaguars: Even though the Jags are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 visits to Indy, Andrew Luck is so fired up about Stanford beating USC last week that he will channel that energy to win this game convincingly, proving to the world that the new-look Colts are a tier about bottom feeder. This ain't your Dad's 2011 Colts.
DALLAS COWBOYS (-6.5) over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers: New Cowboy corner backs Brandon Carr and Morris Claiborne have not been scored on yet and no wide receiver has gained more than 60 yards. The Bucs are 2-7 ATS in their last nine against Dallas, while the Cowboys are an awful 4-15-1 ATS in their last 20 as a favorite, so something has to give. We believe it will be the overrated Bucs defense.
New York Jets (-2.5) over the MIAMI DOLPHINS: The Dolphins will be way over-valued after shellacking the jet-lagged, heat exhausted Raiders last week. The numbers don't support this pick with the Jets being 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games and the Dolphins being 5-1 ATS in their last 6 at home, but we believe Tannehill has already packed his bags for his Sunday afternoon trip to Revis Island. The Jets have a better defense and a marginally better offense, and the true colors will spill into the Orange Bowl this weekend.
WASHINGTON REDSKINS (-3.5) over the Cincinnati Bengals: This is another battle of crappy ATS stats, with the Redskins being 2-10-1 in their past 13 as a favorite and the Bengals being 0-5-1 in their past 6 as a dog. We struggled with this one until we realized Cincinnati might have the worst defense in the league, and in a high scoring, home opener for Griffin and the gang, look for the Redskins to win by a yellow flag in the final two minutes.
Kansas City Chiefs (+8.5) over the NEW ORLEANS SAINTS: Who do you trust more a bookie or a stripper? The answer is neither. Take the points. Let's face it, New Orleans is going to win games, but until their defense stops making every quarterback look like Fourth Quarter Eli, we're not picking them to cover anything.
Detroit Lions (-2.5) over the TENNESSEE TITANS: Routed by San Diego last week, the Titans will have very little confidence coming into this week's match-up. Look for the Lions to turn the corner on an 0-6 ATS trend in their last 6 road games. This game shouldn't even be close.
San Francisco Forty Niners (-7.5) over the MINNESOTA VIKINGS: This line still shows the Niners aren't getting the respect they deserve. We might still take them if that line were 75. Yes, they're 1-7 ATS in their last eight visits to the Metrodome, but I'm pretty sure their QB was still Jeff Garcia then. Adrian Peterson only rushed for 60 yards last week - in a dome - against the Colts. I doubt he'll do much better against the Gold Rush Defense.
ARIZONA CARDINALS (+3.5) over the Philadelphia Eagles: Philadelphia continues to turn the ball over at an alarming rate, while the Cardinals defense has shined in two straight games this year. According to our Arizona Insider, the Cardinals also have the best record in the NFL at 9-2 in the past eleven dating back to last year. Who knew? We did. Take the home dog. The Eagles may find a way to win, but not by more than an OT field goal.
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (-2.5) over the Atlanta Falcons: Michael Turner's off-field issues coupled with the jet lag and a short week will leave the Falcons looking a bit like the extinct, flightless Dodo bird. The Broncos drew up the No-No Julio blueprint, and look for the Chargers to capitalize on defense and get a boost on offense with the return of their talented RB Ryan Matthews. These teams under achieve offensively when they meet, and Atlanta is 1-4 ATS in their last five as a road dog.
DENVER BRONCOS (+1.5) over the Houston Texans: The home team has covered each of the past three meetings between these two teams. Also, although Manning looked awful in the first quarter against Atlanta, the Broncos defense stepped up and shut down the high-powered Falcons in the second half. The Texans might not have a turnover this year, but they've also played Miami and Jacksonville. Outside of Floridian competition, they're really an unknown. I look for the Denver crowd and altitude to step in much like it did against Pittsburgh in Week 1 and swing this game to the home team.
OAKLAND RAIDERS (+4.5) over the Pittsburgh Steelers: The miserable Oakland Raiders just don't fair well as an underdog. The favorite roll, however, they relish - going 9-3 in their last 12. The frustrated fans and players in the Coliseum will overwhelm the mediocre Steeler team that is 2-8 ATS in their most recent September games. We like this as the sexiest pick of the week.
BALTIMORE RAVENS (-3.5) over the New England Patriots: Anytime you get points with the Patriots you take them, right? Wrong. Sure the stats say so, with the Pats going 5-1 ATS as an underdog since 2009 and 10-2-1 as a road team in over the past two seasons AND 8-1 SU against the Ravens in their last nine meetings, but we really believe that this game will be the tipping point for Baltimore. Every Super Bowl contender, and we believe the Ravens are headed to the Har-Bowl this year, has to overcome its greatest adversary, and New England is practically a division rival in that regard. Pittsburgh who? Ravens all night at home. This could be a blow out.
A) Seattle 8-1 ATS in their last nine as a home dog
B) Green Bay 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight Monday nighters
C) Seattle 4-0-1 in their past five Monday nighters, including 3 shutouts and a win against the Packers.
Marshawn Lynch will be all the offense Seattle needs against the Packers poor run defense, and we see them winning straight up.
Looks like an awesome week of football, fellow gamblers. Hope this helps.
Vinny and Marco
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