NFL Week 4 Picks ATS: Return to Glory

After a disappointing 6-10 ATS showing last week, The Spread Zone is now hovering just above par at 25-23 ATS for the season, thanks in part to the outstanding job the Replacement Refs did on Monday Night in Seattle. Just for nailing that hometown call, Marco and I feel like winners.

                               

With a deal finally being struck between the Union Refs and the NFL last night, here are three things you are guaranteed to see this week:

1. Some semblance of order will be returned to our weekly football line-up.

2. Conflicted fans who still want to complain about questionable calls will now applaud knowing it could be a lot worse.

3. As part of the new bargaining agreement, Ed Hoculi will be reffing shirtless with black and white stripes painted on his body.

                              

Welcome back formerly most hated referees. We all love you now.

As for Week 4's Picks ATS, they all feel like locks. Maybe it's the first bye week allowing us to better focus our energy on 15 picks, but I have a hard time imagining that anyone betting will disagree with our predictions. It's going to be crowded at the top of our pool. Okay, let's get back to winning this week, shall we? Home teams in CAPS, okay?

Cleveland Browns (+12.5) over BALTIMORE RAVENS: Our friend Jimmy the Weasel always says "A quick touchdown and that 12.5 turns into 19.5." He also says this with lines of 13.5, 19.5, and the rare but not unheard of 21.5. With the parity in this year's NFL, we'll take 10.5 plus points no matter who's playing. The Ravens are due for a comedown, and we're due for a Thursday Night win. Besides, the Ravens are 8-1 SU but 1-8 ATS as a double digit favorite, while the Browns are 11-3 ATS as an underdog of 9 or more points.

New England Patriots (+3.5) over BUFFALO BILLS: Although Buffalo's F-Jax - who averages 5.0 yards per carry against the Patriots - may return this week, the Patriots haven't lost three games in a row since the Civil War. but we finally saw Brady use all of weapons last week. Brandon Lloyd and company will have a big day. They will send a message after losing two straight.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (+1.5) over San Diego Chargers: Home cooking has won the past five meetings between these teams, so welcome home Jamaal Charles and Dwayne Bowe. Also, the Chiefs are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 home games against the Chargers. Kansas City will keep their momentum going, control the game, and grab a share of the AFC West lead.

ATLANTA FALCONS (-7.5) over Carolina Panthers: Finally, the Falcons look like a real contender. Marco and I both can throw for 300+ yards against the Panther defense, so if you have anybody on the Falcons put them into your fantasy lineups. Atlanta owns Carolina, going 6-1 ATS in their last seven, while Carolina struggles on turf with a 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15. 

                                

San Francisco Forty Niners (-3.5) over NEW YORK JETS: An angry Niner defense that was embarrassed last week will take this game over early. They will hurt people. Sanchez will get injured, leave the game, and be replaced by Tebow. Tebow will also get injured, and the NY Jets fans' chants for Greg McElroy will finally be heard. A terrified McElroy will take a knee on every play and Greg Schiano will kick his ass later. Yes, we know the Niners are 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 as a road favorite and 1-5 ATS in their past 6 road games, but we're gamblers. Besides, Darrelle Revis took is on a permanent vacation to IR Island.

Minnesota Vikings (+4.5) over DETROIT LIONS: This is one of the toughest games of the week. Minnesota is overvalued after beating the Niners last week, but Detroit has underachieved all year, plus Stafford is banged up. Will Leshoure will outplay Peterson? Will the Lions roll at home.? We don't think so. Although the Minnesota Vikings have lost 11 straight divisional games, Detroit is 2-8 ATS going into a bye. Meanwhile, Minnesota is suddenly a top 8 defense, even better against the pass than the rush. A great fantasy value team, the Vikings will at the very least cover this game. 

ST LOUIS RAMS (+3.5) over Seattle Seahawks: Did you know that 30,000 fantasy football match-ups were decided by MNF's botched final play? Death threats were e-mailed vehemently from the smack talk lobbies all over the world. This week, Seattle will be suffering from a We-Shouldn't-Have-Won-That-Game-Hangover, and the guilty feelings will overpower their 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS recent record in St. Louis. Who doesn't have a record like that in St. Louis the past 6 years? These new Rams are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five at home games, so look for them to continue this trend in a heated NFC West divisional contest. 

Tennessee Titans (+12.5) over HOUSTON TEXANS: Remember what Jimmy The Weasel says. Broader statistics don't support this pick with the Texans being 12-3 ATS in their past 15 at home and the Titans being 3-11 ATS in recent road games against the AFC South. That being said, Jake Locker is not made of broader statistics, and a little known fact is that five of the last six meetings between these two teams has been decided in overtime or by less than three points. 

Oakland Raiders (+5.5) over DENVER BRONCOS: If we predict McFadden is going to go off every week, one of these days we're bound to be right. We've been doing it for 23 years with The Bay Bridge Series and look us now, suckas. The Broncos are 0-6 ATS in their last six at home against the Raiders and 2-7-1 ATS in their last ten as a home favorite. Meanwhile, the pedestrian looking Raiders play the underdog well, going 10-3 ATS in their last 13 in that role. Sorry Peyton, we still love you, but McFadden is going to go off this week.

                           

ARIZONA CARDINALS (-6.5) over Miami Dolphins: Arizona's defense will out score the Miami offense. We're all in on the Arizona bandwagon. No way Miami travels east and competes with this fired up football team. The Cardinals have won 7 straight and 10 of 12 at home, and we look for them to win again and cover easily.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (+1.5) over Cincinnati Bengals: Andy Dalton is on fire and I'm not talking about his hair. He and AJ Green will combine to score almost enough to overshadow the Bengals horrible defense. Unfortunately, Cincinnati cannot stop the run and MJD will cruise to a 200 yard performance and the Jags (4-1 ATS in their last five games) will win against a Bengals team that is 2-7-3 ATS in their last 12 overall.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (-2.5) over Washington Redskins: Tampa Bay has confidence this year with Greg Schiano leading them to their first 3-0 ATS start since their Super Bowl run with Gruden. Washington is becoming a team that's difficult to trust, especially on the road where they boast a 5-20 ATS in their last 20 and an even worse 2-5-1 ATS in Tampa Bay. 

GREEN BAY PACKERS (-7.5) over New Orleans Saints: The Packers offense we remember from last year will be on display against the sad, sad Saints defense. No one is angrier about the replacement refs than Green Baby and they will take it out just enough on New Orleans not to get any penalties from the returning refs. The Saints are 1-4 ATS in Green Bay, and have lost as a 9+ point underdogs four times since 2005. Cedric Benson will be doing the Lionel Richie Lambeau Leap - All Night Long.

New York Giants (+2.5) over PHILADELPHIA EAGLES: Madden 2012 shows us it's not that hard to read NFL defenses, and yet Mike Vick gets paid $100 million to be unable to do so. Somebody buy him a video game console. I'm surprised the Giants get points here. Take them. The Giants are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 as an underdog. Plus, we watched a special on Tom Coughlin on NFL Network today. He is the nicest guy ever. Forget about taking the emotion out of it. We're putting the emotion back into it. 

Chicago Bears (+3.5) over DALLAS COWBOYS: Close call here. Similar teams. Take the points based solely on the Monday Night Football stats. While the Cowboys are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 Monday Nighters, the Bears conversely are 6-2 ATS. We bet it's decided by a field goal. Win or lose, Marco and I still hate Jay Cutler.


So that's the word, fellow gamblers. How do we feel about our picks this week? Let's ask the refs:

                                
                                          Replacement Refs

                             
                                          Returning Refs

I'm sure we're all excited to have the Real Refs back, because now there will never ever ever ever ever be a bad call made in a football game again.

The End

Vinny and Marco