NFL Picks Week 5: Vegas's Early Lines for Week 5 in the NFL

NFL Picks Week 5: Vegas's Early Lines for Week 5 in the NFL: As usual, the following lines were borrowed from the www.linemakers.sportingnews.com

NFL Picks Week 5: Vegas's Early Lines for Week 5 in the NFLHere’s an early peek at the point spreads and totals for the Week 5 NFL slate. Lines are from the Wynn, unless noted with an asterisk. 

Thursday, October 3

Bills vs. Browns (-4, 42)

The Brian Hoyer-led Browns may have won some people over with their second straight win, at home Sunday over Cincinnati, as they opened as bigger than field-goal favorites next week against the Bills. Buffalo won Sunday, too, at home against Baltimore. The LVH SuperBook opened Cleveland -3.5 for this Thursday night tilt, but moved to -4 soon after.

Sunday, October 6

Chiefs vs. Titans (no line)

Tennessee quarterback Jake Locker was knocked out of Sunday’s game against the Jets, and with his status uncertain, Vegas books hesitated to hang a number on this game. No matter who is under center for the Titans, this game is a big one in the early going in the AFC. Kansas City remained unbeaten after dismissing the Giants, and the Titans are sitting at 3-1 after breezing past the Jets. Tennessee was the 1-point favorite when the LVH posted Week 5 lines last week.

Ravens vs. Dolphins (-3)*

Baltimore went down, 23-20, in Buffalo to fall back to .500. Miami is a touchdown underdog in New OrleansMonday night.

Jaguars vs. Rams (-13, 42)

Books just can’t make spreads against Jacksonville high enough. A 13-point dog in St. Louis? The Rams are 1-3 and looked pretty inept themselves in a home loss to the 49ers Thursday night.

Patriots vs. Bengals (-2)*

Cincy, after a fortunate win against Green Bay in Week 3, was sandwiched by the Browns on Sunday. They step back up in class next week.

Seahawks (-3/-120, 43) vs. Colts

Indy, a nifty 3-1, marks the second consecutive playoff-caliber AFC team Seattle has to face on the road. Down 20-3 at halftime, Seattle came back to beat the Texans in overtime to remain undefeated.

Lions vs. Packers (-6.5, 52.5)

Detroit rolled over Chicago Sunday. Green Bay had the benefit of a bye week. The LVH and William Hill both opened this game Packers -7.

Saints vs. Bears (pick ‘em)*

The LVH moved to Chicago -1 shortly after opening.

Eagles vs. Giants (-3, 55)

A battle of two disappointing NFC East clubs with a combined record of 1-7. Early bettors backed the dog, and both the Wynn and LVH moved to New York -2.5.

Panthers (-2, 41.5) vs. Cardinals

Arizona is back home after back-to-back trips to the Southeast. The Cards are 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS and get a Carolina team off a bye.

Chargers (-5.5)* vs. Raiders

William Hill was the first out with this one, as other books await news on Terrelle Pryor. In his absence, Matt Flynn did not impress in Sunday’s home loss to Washington.

Broncos (-6) vs. Cowboys

Denver’s another team that has to have books a bit nervous. They just keep covering big numbers. Bettors laid the 6 at the Wynn and LVH for next week’s game at Dallas, moving the line to 6.5 Sunday night at both shops.

Texans vs. 49ers (-7 even, 43)

Houston’s Super Bowl aspirations took another hit with an overtime loss at home to Seattle, but they’ll get another crack at a top-tier foe next week. San Francisco pulled itself to .500 with a win in St. Louis Thursday night. The LVH opened the 49ers -6.5, but adjusted to -7 about 15 minutes later.

Monday, October 7

Jets vs. Falcons (-9)*

The Jets came back down to earth in Tennessee Sunday. Atlanta will be in the primetime lights for the second week in a row. The Falcons re-opened at -8 Monday morning after dropping to 1-3 with their loss to the Patriots.

Monday Morning Quarterback: Ode to a Painful September

My dear readers,

After much soul searching I have made a monumental decision about the future of The Spread Zone. And by "soul searching," I mean an impulsive thought on my way back from work, and by "momentous" and "future," I just mean right now. The decision - rather than hide my head in the sand or come up with new self-effacing ways to show my humility - was to write a poem about the first four weeks of the 2013 NFL Season. Without any adieu, here is:

Ode to a Painful September

With four weeks behind us and twelve weeks to go
in a season that's been like a David Lynch show.
It's time to deflect all your worry and doubt
by handing some Mid-Mid Season grades out.



Let's fly up northeast to Seattle's abode
where the Seahawks have learned how to win on the road.
They're well on their way to the title they seek
Provided they're playing Matt Schaub every week.

The Niners, the Rams, and the Cards to be clear
will be looking up at the end of the year.
And though trading Smith to the Chiefs made me sick
S.F. will be fine with the young Kaepernick.



And down The Bayu Sean Payton is back,
leading the Saints strong, offensive attack
while the Falcons poor start might get their coach fired
I'll bet Tony's son wishes Dad stayed retired

The Year of the Cat, says wise Granny C
but the Panthers are mired at a poor 1-3
And the Bucs, it just sucks, can't win but don't mind
'cause their defense is great when it's not getting fined.



Up north the young Bears got a spank on the tush
by a much better cat and revived Reggie Bush
Being a Vike fan must feel like a hassle,
perhaps that will change with "The Jeckyll" Matt Cassell

At the end of the year I think Cheese Heads stands tall
'cause they cut every player who fumbles the ball
They'll beat the up the Lions next week in Green Bay
to take over first, and that's where they'll stay.



The Giants and Redskins, now both former beasts
in the once feared division, the NFC Least
With Eli's poor passing, V. Cruz just can't dance
While Washington should give Kirk Cousins a chance.

And although Kelly's offense was great with The Ducks,
it seems that with Philly it really plain sucks.
With their competition, the Cowboys are fine
to win this division at seven and nine.



In the AFC West, Alex Smith, Andy Reid,
are leading the Chiefs to a wild card seed.
The Chargers are Chargers, with highs and with lows
And being a Raiders fan still really blows.

The Broncos are putting up Madden-like stats
In two weeks they'll hang 90 on Jacksonville's Cats.
I'm starting to see that there is no good reason
to bet ATS against Denver this season.



At the top of the East, the young Patriots sit,
and last night they proved their defense is legit.
The Dolphins are proving to be a great bet,
but I'm still not quite there on the bandwagon yet.

The Jets have surprised us with .500 ball,
but away from MetLife, they can't win at all.
And Buffalo, Buffalo - where doth though roam,
also just winning the games that they're home.



And off in the South, the strong Titans have heart,
which has them in first with a 3-1 start
Tied with the Colts who've done more of the same
Thanks to a new and improved running game.

In Houston four quarters is never enough,
with three OT games out of four, man that's rough.
And the Jacksonville Jaguars? They're really quite lame,
scoring about six point seven a game.



The Browns are in first after only four games
while Hoyer and Cameron are both household names
The Ravens appear to be hitting rough seas,
and yesterday Flacco had 5 I N Ts

The Bengals are good, but still have ups and downs
beating up Packers but losing to Brown.
and finally, Pittsburgh, with all its mistakes
are still in the running for the Clowney Sweepstakes.



And, of course there's The Spread Zone that's down in the dumps,
With Vinny and Marco both in Sophomore Slumps.
Losing is awful, it feels like a curse,
Let's face it, the truth is it can't get much worse.



So October is near and although it feels daunting
We look to Week 5 to do some un-haunting
I wanted to quit after Sunday night's game,
and find a new hobby with far, far less shame,

And much like the Giants, who's start is the worst
We still only feel we're two games out of first.
So on we persist, because that's what we do,
as people, as writers, as gamblers, too.



I hope Dan P. hasn't given up on us yet, because I was remiss not to mention how much I appreciated your e-mails last week. Keep 'em coming. For TSZ Insiders who might feel like they're not getting their $17 worth, I don't blame you, but there's good news on the horizon. Beginning Week 9 we're going to have a Friday Five Contest through the end of the season with cash prizes, coffee mugs, or something else worth your investment. Hopefully the Saints cover tonight and give us our first .500 Friday Five, otherwise we might just use our fan picks for the second half of the season.

Happy Monday?

Vinny and Marco

NFL Picks Week 4: Super Teasing Your Way to the Bank

The Super Teaser Saturday Special

By: JK, TSZ Insider

Hello Spread Zone followers,

I've been a loyal follower of The Spread zone for two seasons now, and I have made a lot of money with the SZ team. The one catch, however, is that I play the SZ Team's picks on Teasers and Super Teasers, which I now call Pleasers and Super Pleasers. For those of you unfamiliar with the term, a teaser/pleaser is a type of bet which allows you to adjust the lines on three or more games in exchange for a reduced payout. As a business man for over 22 years, I've learned that taking risk is a part of everyday success or failure and the same goes for sports betting. What you have to figure out to stay on top in both of these worlds, is the difference between acceptable and unacceptable risk.



For example, last week the Vikings were giving up 5 1/2 points on the parlay (too risky), but on the on the Super Pleaser they were getting 4 1/2 points (acceptable risk). See I don't look at this as gambling, I look at it as investing and just like in the stock market you have low risk, medium risk, and high risk each bearing a different returns. Similarly in sports betting you have different returns on your investment depending on which risk you're willing to take or which risk is acceptable to you. 

I will give you another example from Week 2: I took the SZ Teams picks against the spread and I played them on Teasers (Pleaser) and Super Teasers (Pleaser) I played a 10 team teaser paying 30-1 and 11 team Super paying 11-1. Now those same teams played on a parlay payed 800-1 and 1400-1 respectively, but remember I said acceptable risk - and to me the parlay risk is not one I am willing to accept. Instead, I played The SZ picks changing none and eliminating the ones I wasn't comfortable with and both tickets hit.

 
Last week I played a 9 team Super and a 6 Teaser, also both hitting. So remember don't think of the teaser as a sissy or a sucker bet as some call it in Vegas, call it an acceptable risk that your willing to take every Sunday. One of my employees who pokes fun at me for laying $50 on 11 team teaser 45-1 and $100 on 11 team super paying 11-1, which -  with the help of The Spread Zone - hit 4 weeks in a row. He said "ain't no money in them teasers" I said "would you rather try to get $8000 once or $1100 a week for 17 weeks" everybody said "$1100 a week," to which I said, "Now is that a teaser or a pleaser?" They all said a pleaser....... Happy Pleasing my friends Happy Pleasing.



Here are my recommended Teaser and Super Teaser Cards for this week:

Teasers

Ravens +2 1/2
Bengals +1/2
Colts -3 1/2
Texans +8 1/2
Cardinals +8 1/2
Bears +8 1/2
Giants +9 1/2
Titans +2 1/2
Cowboys+5 1/2
Raiders +9 1/2
Eagles +18 1/2 

Super Teaser

Ravens +6 1/2
Bengals +5 1/2
Colts +1/2
Texans +13 1/2
Cardinals +13 1/2
Bears +13 1/2
Giants +13 1/2
Titans +6 1/2
Cowboys +9 1/2
Raiders +13 1/2
Eagles +21 1/2

Bounce Games: This week I will be playing an additional Teaser and Super Teaser card in which I will be bouncing (switching teams) in these four games.

Seahawks +2 1/2 and +6 1/2
Chiefs +2 1/2 and +6 1/2
Redskins +2 1/2 and +6 1/2 
Broncos -6 1/2 and -1 1/2

Feel free to comment if you have any questions,

JK, TSZ Insider