Wednesday, December 26, 2012

NFL Week 17 Picks ATS: On the Marco

 Sadly there is no time for lengthy lead-ins or poetically profound metaphors about life and gambling this week. Marco has family obligations and I have a minor surgery that will ensure my family obligations remain at status quo. Translation - holiday vasectomy. My only regret is that my insurance doesn't roll over in June, because I would have loved to join the 25% increase in men who opt for this procedure during March Madness. Too bad my doctor doesn't work on Saturdays - it would have made Sunday football viewing blissfully guilt free. 

In lieu of the norm, let's jump right into a transcript of Marco's notes on this week's games. Keep in mind that there are several playoff scenarios in the NFC yet to be determined, while the AFC will likely have teams like the Colts, Ravens, and Bengals resting up for Wild Card weekend. 

TSZ Welcomes: Our 30th follower. A landmark of sorts. Please join me in welcoming Angel L. to our community. Hope you got here in time for that epic 5-0 Friday Five last week. We're glad you're here.  

LAST WEEK:  10-6 ATS (twice in a row)


FRIDAY FIVE CONFIDENCE PICKS: 5-0 ATS last week, and 32-18 ATS on the season. Now available:

Marco appears to have hit his stride with back-to-back 10-6 ATS weeks. This week, he put a lot of thought into the hidden variables - playoff seeding, resting the wary, deflated losers, vying for draft picks, and so on - and he has put together a rather unorthodox but poignantly accurate list of picks.

NFL Week 17 Picks ATS: The Good, the Bad, and the Ones Nobody Cares About

CINCINNATI BENGALS -3.5 over Baltimore Ravens: Underrated versus overrated. The Bengals will pounce into the playoffs with a statement win against the inconsistent Ravens. 

BUFFALO BILLS -3.5 over New York Jets: Tim Tebow has given up on the Jets, and so should you. C.J. Spiller will win this game all by himself.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS +4.5 over Houston Texans: Coach Pagano returns to the sideline setting up an emotionally-charged upset of the struggling Texans. Houston has never won in Indy. Yes, that was when Peyton was still in town, but that still gives the Colts a psychological advantage.

ATLANTA FALCONS -0.0 over Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Coach Mike Smith will not rest his starters, that's what the bye week is for. The Bucs only strength is stopping the run. That won't help against one of the league's best passing attacks.

Philadelphia Eagles +9.5 over NEW YORK GIANTS: We're tired of getting burned by the Giants. Rumor has it Vick may be back at QB for the Eagles which makes this match-up more interesting. Mike will be auditioning for his next job, so he'll play his best. 

Chicago Bears -3.5 over DETROIT LIONS: I know I predict this every week, but Cutler and Marshall will hook up for at least two scores as the Lions secondary isn't stopping anyone lately. Lions keep it close until the end. Look for a trademark pick six for the Bears defense against a late game turnover-prone Matthew Stafford.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS -4.5 over Carolina Panthers: Drew Brees and the rest of the Saints players will get up for this game. They want to show Sean Payton why he should choose New Orleans over the Dallas job. 

PITTSBURGH STEELERS -0.0 over Cleveland Browns: Coach Tomlin will have his guys playing for pride. Don't be surprised with a blowout victory to end the season as most of the Browns rookies are used to resting for six weeks before a bowl game. 

Jacksonville Jaguars +4.5 over TENNESSEE TITANS: The Chiefs will secure the first pick in next year's draft by losing to Denver, so the Jags have no reason to tank this game. Honestly, we feel the Jags are the better of these two teams, so take the points and watch Jake Locker throw more interceptions.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS -10.5 over Miami Dolphins: The Patriots have never made it to a Super Bowl without a first round bye. This game means a ton to them. Two glaring issues for Miami- they can't defend the pass and they won't be able to run the ball against the stout New England front line. Patriots by at least 17 points.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS +3.5 over Green Bay Packers: "All Day" Adrian Peterson ran for over 200 yards against GB in their last meeting. Look for the Minnesota defense to step up at home in this "win and get in" game. What  a great story. 

SAN FRANCISCO FORTY NINERS -16.5 over Arizona Cardinals: Report after week 16 loss: "Larry Fitzgerald's Dad finally joins everyone else and gives up on the Cardinals too." This will be a long, ugly day for whatever QB off the street Arizona starts this week. The SF defense will be playing angry after last week's nationally televised embarrassment. Will there be a Smith siting? We hope so. 

DENVER BRONCOS -16.5 over Kansas City Chiefs: "Tank" you very much for blowing us out, Denver. KC secures first pick in the draft and celebrates after the loss.

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS -0.0 over Oakland Raiders: San Diego lost several key players to injury yet they played better last week. They should make easy work of the lowly Raiders and the Terrelle Pryor Experiment.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS -10.5 over St. Louis Rams: The Seahawks will cover any spread against any team at home right now. 

WASHINGTON REDSKINS -3.5 over Dallas Cowboys: Weekend weather forecast shows snow. Cold weather favors the run game. Alfred Morris and RG3 lead the Skins to a convincing victory to win the NFC East. This is the game of the week.

Enjoy the heck out of the last week of 2012. Stay tuned for our Friday Five as we look to build on our impressive 5-0 week. 

Vinny and Marco

PS I'll try to add some images tomorrow as I'm sitting on the couch recovering. 

Daily Reminders

#1. Coffee Donations: If you appreciate what we're doing here, feel free to buy us a cup of coffee anytime - top right of the page. It takes a lot of caffeine to keep this thing going. Many thanks to those who have donated. It has felt like a warm, delicious compliment every time. Please send us a note, too, so we can make sure to thank you in the next post.

#2. Follow us on Twitter @vinnyandmarco. Spend weekends with Marco in the Twittersphere or feel free to just e-mail us anytime


  1. Hey Vincenzo and Spartacus and fellow TSZers. Love the picks once again! Although I see Tennessee and the Cowboys as winners and LOCKS!!!

  2. Any other suggestions ats for week 17 2012. Strong ones Thanks

    1. Hey Genese,

      Send us an e-mail at and we'll send you our Friday Five.

      Vinny and Marco