NFL Picks Week 10: Lions vs Bears ATS, Predictions, and More

NFL Picks Week 10: Lions vs Bears ATS, Predictions, and More

By: MaChez, TSZ Expert

When Aaron Rodgers was knocked out for 3-6 weeks with a fractured collarbone and the Bears beat the Packers at home on Monday Night Football, the Lions and Packers and Bears (oh my!) all became entrenched in a three-way tie atop the NFC North.  Sunday morning’s showdown between the Bears and Lions instantly became the TSZEGOTW as the outcome of the matchup will go a long way in deciding the winner of the North.

Now that the Packers and Bears signal-callers are both out, the Lions have an opportunity to take control of the division.  If they can win this week (and sweep the Bears on the season) and Rodgers is still out for their Thanksgiving date with the Packers, the North is the Lions’ to lose. 

The Spread

The Lions are currently favored by 2.5 points on the road, mainly due to how healthy they are compared to the Bears.  With two high-scoring offenses, the total is sitting around 52.

Detroit Lions

As a team, the Lions are a little difficult to figure out - other than two straight wins in Week 3 and 4, they have alternated wins and losses all season.  Most recently, they were 50 seconds away from a second straight loss before Stafford and Johnson led an extremely impressive game winning drive to stun the Cowboys.  They will be well rested for the Bears after getting the week off on their bye.

Reggie Bush has really proven to be the missing puzzle piece of this offense and he too is prospering from the change in scenery.  With Bush, the Lions offense has become the third best in the league and second best in passing.  Not only is Bush making plays out of the backfield, but also as a receiving weapon - he’s the fourth best receiving RB in the league and is getting 10.8 yards per catch. 

The defense is not performing as well, however, and is hampering this team’s chances at success.  Giving up 381 yards per game (25^th in the league) and 24.6 points (18^th), the Lions aren’t really stopping anyone.  Only once have they given up less than 20 points this year (against CLE) and will have their hands full trying to slow down a loaded Bears offense.

Chicago Bears

The Bears started the season well, winning their first three games under new coach Marc Trestman.  Although the defense was slacking, the Bears offense with Cutler, Martellus Bennet, Alshon Jeffrey, and Brandon Marshall was running on all cylinders and putting up points.  But then the Bears hit a snag in the schedule with games against the Lions and Saints and things fell apart. 

They lost Cutler and defensive leader Lance Briggs to injury and lost three of four games before Monday’s night win over the Packers. 

There’s a small chance Cutler returns for this game but it may be in their best interest to make sure he’s fully healed so he’s available late in the season.  Josh McCown has filled in admirably for Cutler, playing 6.5 quarters of solid football, and could probably hold down the fort for one more week. 

On defense, the Bears aren't the same shutdown D they used to be, but injuries have played a big part in their demise with Lance Briggs, CB Peanut Tillman, and NT Henry Melton all missing games this year due to injuries.  They are giving up almost exactly the same number of yards per game as the Lions but are giving up even more points at 28.3 per game (4^th worst in the league).

Prediction

This game is a really tough one to pick as injuries and coaching (and lack thereof) make these two teams pretty evenly matched.  In their first matchup, the Lions won by 8 in what was actually much more of a blowout than the score reflects.  However, Cutler also had four turnovers that helped the Lions score 27 points in the second quarter.  It could be harder to win against McCown who has posted a 100.2 QB rating, compared to Cutler’s 91.7, and has yet to turn the ball over.

This week, though, I think I have to take the Lions.  They are healthier, more well-rested, and will be motivated by the new-found light at the end of the tunnel.  Meanwhile the Bears are coming off a short week and may be overconfident after finally beating the Packers at Lambeau.  That being said, the OVER 52 is the safest bet on this game as the match-up of these two teams earlier this season eclipsed 70 and neither team has improved since.

CHICAGO BEARS vs. Detroit Lions (-2.5)

OVER 52