NFL Picks Week 9: Bengals Dolphins ATS Pick and Predictions
The Bengals are three point favorites coming in to Miami
for this week’s Thursday night matchup.
By: MaChez, TSZ Expert
Can you believe it’s already Week 9? It feels like just
yesterday that I was talking about the possible amazing Halloween Night of
sports. Now it’s upon us, but only with games in three of the big sports
(thanks Red Sox…), two great NBA matchups, three NHL games (including one that
looks good), and of course Thursday Night Football.
Although this game would have been a little more exciting
five weeks ago before the Dolphins lost four straight and the Bengals won four
straight, it still holds a little intrigue.
With the Patriots beating them last week and facing the Steelers this
week, the Dolphins really need a win this week to stay competitive in the AFC
East. Meanwhile, the Bengals have
capitalized off of losing streaks by the Ravens and Browns to take a firm 2.5
game lead in the AFC North.
The Spread
Vegas opened this line up even but it has moved to -3 in
favor of the Bengals over the past few days.
The total opened at 40 but quickly rose to 43 with both teams having
favorable records against the total this year.
Cincinnati Bengals
Finally, Andy Dalton is taking advantage of one of the most
stacked rosters in the league. Last week
he threw for a career-high five TDs, including four to Marvin Jones. He has actually been sneaky good all
season: Dalton is now sixth in passer
rating and fourth in touchdowns and yards, while the RB tandem of BenJarvus
Green-Ellis and Giovani Bernard has helped the Bengals become the fifth best
offense in the league. Things are going
so well that someone at ESPN has even added Dalton to their MVP watchlist…seriously:
Cincinnati’s D isn’t so bad either. During their four game win streak they kept
both the Patriots and Jets to nine points or less and had two pick sixes in
last week’s beat down of the Jets. Even
in the games against the Bills and Lions when they gave up 24 points, they did
what they needed to to allow the Bengals to win close. The new season-ending injury to safety Taylor
Mays won’t help things, though, in the already thin secondary.
Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins finally looked like they could be competitive
this year. The Jets and Patriots looked
to be in down years and the Bills always are so the door was open for the
Dolphins. When they won three straight
to open the season, it really seemed like it might be there season. But then they traveled to New Orleans and
things have gone downhill since. So bad
that one of their much needed offensive lineman got mad at a prank and actuallyran away…seriously:
The offensive line is giving second year QB Ryan Tannehill
absolutely no protection and the lack of a solid run game isn’t helping
either. Mike Wallace, the Dolphins’ huge
offseason acquisition, has seen his production completely drop off which makes
one wonder if Jeff Ireland accounted for the extra time Ben Roethlesberger gave
Wallace to get open in Pittsburgh. But then
all this also makes one wonder why the Dolphins’ coaching staff isn’t rolling
out Tannehill more since he‘s an athletic ex-college WR that can buy time for
the offense. These are all things I
wonder after listening to the South Florida radio hosts wonder them all day.
Prediction
All things - recent play, rosters, coaching, time of
posession, etc. - are pointing to a Bengals cover here. And for that reason I’m taking the Dolphins
and the points. This game is much
important to the Dolphins and they have the benefit of being at home on this
short week. Also, they haven’t played as
poorly as their record might suggest. In
the last three games they’ve played really well in the first half but then blew
the game late. I see them playing a
complete game this week and the Bengals slipping up a bit after playing too
well for too long. The OVER is a much
safer bet though. 27-24 Dolphins.
MIAMI DOLPHINS (+3) vs. Cincinnati Bengals
OVER 43
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