NFL Picks Week 5: Panthers vs Cardinals Pick & So Much More

MaChez Says...

We’re officially a quarter through the NFL season and this is what we know:

The Broncos are good

The Giants, Jaguars and Steelers aren’t

The Giants and Steelers are only two games out of first place

The Jaguars aren’t

Vegas is magic: Favorites are 32-31, Over is 32-31

The Jaguars aren’t

Tom Brady can make due with any white, short haired 5’10” guy

The SU winner is 31-0 ATS over the past 2 weeks (depending on what DEN line you got in Week 3)

Greg Schiano really doesn’t like Josh Freeman

Sean Payton really likes CrossFit

Although it’s sad to be four games in to the season, we now enter one of the best times of the year in sports.  With hockey and basketball starting up and baseball playoffs getting going, we’ll have a week or so when all four big sports are in season simultaneously.  In fact, Halloween night could turn out to be the most ultimate sports night ever:  MIA vs. CIN Thursday night football, four college football games, three NHL games, Knicks vs. Bulls and Warriors vs. Clippers in the NBA, AND possibly Game 7 of the World Series.   No matter what ends up happening, you can count on having at least one exciting game (no non-playoff baseball) to bet on every day for basically the next eight months. 

So let’s get to these picks.  One of my first articles broke down how statistically unlikely it is to go 5-0/0-5 or 4-1/1-4 and somehow I’ve done all of those things in four weeks.  After a 9-1 two-week run, a 1-4 record last week brought me back to 500 at 10-10.  Here’s what I’m liking for this weekend:

1. Ohio State @ Northwestern OVER 61 (-110 @ 5dimes)

Ohio State hasn’t lost since Urban Meyer arrived but did give up four TDs and 400 yards of offense to Wisconsin last week.  Northwestern is playing surprisingly efficient, even with two QBs.  Northwestern has had two weeks to prepare for this game and the national spotlight, so although Ohio State should come away with the win, expect Northwestern to stay competitive and put up big numbers.

2. ASU (-5.5) vs. Notre Dame(-110 @ 5dimes)

ASU and Notre Dame are facing off in Dallas at Jerry World.  Notre Dame has looked nothing like the BCS Championship contenders they were last year and QB Tommy Rees is making too many costly mistakes.  ASU just demolished USC 62-41 and is averaging 358.8 yards per game on offense.

3. Carolina Panthers (-2) @ Arizona Cardinals  (-110 @ 5dimes)

The bye week is making people forget the Panthers won 38-0 against the Giants.  Yes they’re the Giants, but they do have some big weapons in the passing game.  Shutting them out is a big deal.  The Cardinals on the other hand, needed two late INTs off of an equally as terrible Buccaneers team with a rookie making his first NFL start.

4.  Boston Red Sox over Tampa Bay Rays - Game 1  (-136 @ 5dimes)

By the time this game starts, the Rays will have traveled almost 4300 miles to 5 different cities in a week while playing in and winning three win-or-go home games.  Meanwhile the Sox have been waiting at home playing games against themselves.  Expect the traveling and pressure to finally catch up to the Rays now that it’s not a do or die situation.

5. Denver Broncos at Dallas Cowboys OVER 56  (-110 @ 5dimes)

The Dallas pass D is 27^th in the league and hasn’t played Manning yet.  Dallas has some weapons of their own so they’ll be able to put up points during garbage time late in the game.