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Monday, August 26, 2013

AFC South Preview: Over/Under Projections for All Four Teams

Once Is Luck, Twice Is a Pattern

By: Will S., TSZ Guest Writer

Houston Texans – Over/Under- 10.5 Wins


If you are a Houston Texans fan, there is a lot to be excited about in this coming season. Not only are they coming off a season in which they won the AFC South and a playoff game over the Cincinnati Bengals, but they also have the core of their team all returning.

Since former Dallas Cowboys head coach Wade Phillips became the Defensive Coordinator, the Texans have seen a drastic improvement in their defense. Last season they were the seventh best rush defense in the NFL, only giving up 97.5 yards rushing a game. Another reason we have seen a great improvement in the Texan’s defense is the emergence of defensive end J.J. Watt. Watt has grown into one of the most dominant defensive players in the game today. The former Wisconsin Badger had 20.5 sacks in just his second year in the NFL, that’s 15 more sacks than he had his rookie season. If I am any other team in the NFL besides the Texans, I am terrified, because Watt is only TWENTY FOUR years old.  Barring injury, this guy’s only scratching the surface of his potential. Imagine a similar improvement this year. Scary.


What makes the Texans a dangerous team is the balance between their offense and defense. You see it so often that a team will have a great offense, but then their mediocre defense will keep them from becoming a great team. For example, the New Orleans Saints in the years since their Super Bowl title, and also this Texans team before the arrival of Wade Phillips. The 2012 Texans offense, led by Matt Schaub, Arian Foster, and Andre Johnson, were also ranked seventh in the NFL. This balance could prove to the recipe for success in this upcoming season, which is the reason I am suggesting taking the Over 10.5 wins. I think they will end the season 11 and 5, due to a pretty tough schedule, but don’t sleep on this team come playoffs.




Indianapolis Colts – Over/Under- 8.5 Wins


To me, this Over/Under is a no brainer. I think the Colts will definitely get Over 8.5 wins in Andrew Luck’s second NFL season.

Last year, the Indianapolis Colts were the feel good story of the season. Coming off of a 2-14 season, they acquired Andrew Luck as the number one pick in the draft. Although they knew he was very talented, nobody really knew what to expect from him as a rookie. Once the season started, the Colts head coach, Chuck Pagano, was diagnosed with leukemia and had to leave the team to get treatment. Seeing their head coach fighting leukemia and still doing his best to help the team out, the Colts decided that they needed to be “Chuck-Strong.” And they were. An 11 and 5 record grabbed a wild card spot in the playoffs, where they lost to the eventual Super Bowl Champion Baltimore Ravens.


Andrew Luck was phenomenal last season. He threw for 4,374 yards with 23 touchdowns and 18 interceptions. Colts fans would like to see that interceptions number go down a little bit, but think about this - in Peyton Manning’s rookie season with the Colts, he had 28 interceptions. We all know what Manning has turned himself into since a mediocre rookie season.  So there is a lot to be looking forward to for Colts fans with their stud young quarterback.

The Colts’ defense was one of the youngest in the NFL last year and should only get better and better if they can keep this same group together. I look for the defense to be much improved from last season.


After one rough season in 2011, it looks like it’s back to being a perennial playoff team for the Colts. This organization has been very fortunate to see the type of quarterback play they have seen and should not take Andrew Luck for granted like they did with Peyton Manning.


Tennessee Titans—Over/Under- 6.5 Wins


To me, the success of this team completely relies on how Chris Johnson can play. If he can get back to the level he was at back in 2009 when he rushed for over 2,000, this team will without a doubt win at least 7 games. But the last few seasons the Titans have seen their running back’s production go way down. This is a big concern for Tennessee because this is the same guy who was thought of as the best running back in the NFL just 4 seasons ago. I am still a believer in Chris Johnson - he is still one of the top 5 fastest players in the NFL and he can find himself in open space, he will have a big year this year.

Another player I look to have a big year is wide receiver Kendall Wright. The former Baylor Bear star has both world class speed and big play capability. He is great at finding himself behind the secondary for those long 45 yard touchdown plays. He is also great at finding the opening in the zone and has very good hands. Wright - another player I had the privilege of seeing live in college and high school - could develop into an All-Pro receiver in this league.

With that being said, I am going to take the Under 6.5 wins on this one. I think it will be a learning year and the defense will struggle. Johnson will rush for around 1,400 yards, giving fans reason to believe he can get back to an elite level. But it won’t be quite enough for this team to make any noise in the AFC South. But in the 2014-15 season, you just might remember the Titans.


Jacksonville Jaguars—Over/Under- 4.5 Wins

 

This is a tough one. With a young quarterback and a stud receiver, you would expect the future would be bright for the Jaguars. I, however, remain skeptical about Blaine Gabbert. I don’t think the former Missouri Tiger will ever develop into the quarterback that the Jaguars were hoping for. Maybe I am wrong, but from the few times I’ve watched the Jaguars, he’s given me no reason to think otherwise.


Maybe rookie head coach, Gus Bradley, can come in and turn it around for the Jags. He is the type of coach that is always energetic and will demand excellence from this team. He was a good hire for this young Jacksonville squad.

The Jaguars have some weapons on offense. Maurice Jones-Drew has been one of the best running backs in the league for the past 5 or so years. With Justin Blackman going into his second year in the league, this offense could be scary if the ball gets in the right hands. Blackmon’s rookie stats weren’t terrific, picking up 865 yards and only 5 touchdowns, but when I saw Blackmon play live in his last season at Oklahoma State, he was an unbelievably dominating player. Some of the catches he made were just ridiculous - and with 2 or 3 defenders draped all over him. The reason his stats weren’t very impressive is because of the quarterback, so if Gabbert can improve you should see Blackmon’s stats start to rise. I see him tallying 1,100 yards receiving with at least 8 touchdowns in his sophomore season.

      "Trade you this puppy for a win."

I would take the Over 4.5 games on the Jags, but I wouldn’t put too much money on it. I just feel that this team, being in a weak division, can win 5 games being, even though the franchise has only seen 7 wins the past two years combined.





AFC South Projected Final 2013-14 Standings:

Team              W        L
Houston          11        5
Indianapolis     10        6
Tennessee         6       10
Jacksonville       5       11




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