By Texas Todd, TSZ Expert
Over the past decade, the AFC West has evolved into what
many would say is The Weakest Division in the NFL. If you've been around professional football long enough, you know that title makes its way to
all divisions in due time. As the 2013
season approaches, many analysts believe the Denver Broncos, the San Diego Chargers,
the Kansas City Chiefs and the Oakland Raiders will keep the unattractive tiara for at least one more year. Major off-season changes within
the division, however, have brought a potential move up the ladder of
significance as the 2013 season plays out.
With regard to off-season moves, the Chiefs were the most
aggressive team, hoping to bounce back into the spotlight from the worst record
in the league. Adding Andy Ried as their head coach, solidifying the offensive
line, grabbing a proven starting QB (Alex Smith) and managing to keep Dwayne
Bowe around indicate they want to contend for a championship NOW. Meanwhile, the Chargers hired a new coach,
Mike McCoy (from the Broncos), and the Raiders have a second year head coach in Dennis Allen (also from the Broncos). Do
you sense a trend here as to which organization is modeling the pathway to
success in the AFC West? Do you also sense a little author bias? C’mon – it’s the AFC
West.
Below are the final 2012 standings of the division compared
with what was predicted going into the year. Taken into consideration, of
course, was the addition of Peyton Manning, the question marks around the
Chiefs coaching staff, the inconsistency of Phillip Rivers’ & Norv Turner’s
abilities, and the strange moves the Raiders made going into the season.
Predicted Final Record
Broncos 9-7 13-3
Chargers 9-7 7-9
Raiders 8-8 4-12
Chiefs 7-9 2-14
As you can see, the only safe bet for the Over in this
division was the Broncos. Will 2013 follow suit? Will the other teams in “The Weakest
Division” play the spoiler role? Will the Raiders ever not suck? Read on…
Denver Broncos—Over/Under 11.5 wins
The Broncos come into the season with a chip on their
shoulder from the double OT home playoff loss to the eventual World Champion
Ravens. Many in Denver believe Ray Lewis talked with God earlier in the season
and cut a deal that involved giving up some of his arm strength so it could
show up in Joe Flacco’s arm with less than a minute to go in Denver. It’s hard
to argue with that if you saw Flacco pass the ball 55 yards into the wind at
ten below zero while being hit by Von Miller.
For Ray Lewis and all Broncos fans, only God throws that pass!
Vegas seems to think the Broncos off-season moves along with
the aforementioned “chip” makes them the team to beat at 6/1 to win the Super Bowl. They also have the Broncos at 1/5 to win the
AFC West and 2/1 to win the AFC Championship. While these lines almost indicate
a sure bet, the favorite in the NFL rarely wins the title. “Uh-oh,” says the
faithful who bleed Blue and Orange.
While all the attention went to Peyton Manning and the
offensive numbers he put up in 2012, the defense was a huge improvement with Jack
Del Rio as coordinator. The good news is he is back, which makes him the first
Defensive Coordinator for the Broncos to return for a second season in over
eight years! More good news is the
addition of DB’s Quentin Jammer and Dominique Rogers-Cromartie—key experience
and toughness in a needed area. The bad news is that Pro-bowlers DE Elvis Dumerville
is a Raven and OLB Von Miller is currently appealing a four game suspension.
Getting off to a good start is always a big deal but not necessary to win it
all (see 2012 Giants or 2009 Steelers), so barring other major injuries, the
defense should return to form.
On the offensive side of the ball, the team is solid at the
key positions. The addition of possession WR Wes Welker and drafted RB Monte
Ball provide higher octane for an already potent offense. With the Center
position in question, however, as number 1 and 2 on the depth chart are out due
to injuries, more will fall on the back of Manning this year than last year. As
most would say, betting on Manning to deliver is practically a sure bet but it
is still a bet.
Anything less than the division title will be considered a
failure. The Broncos have the leadership
to ensure that such failure is not an option. The schedule works to their favor
early, and as long as Miller’s suspension is cut down to two games or less, a
10-0 start is a distinct possibility. Although I love this team and personally
bleed Blue and Orange, going 6-0 in a division that now boasts two former
Bronco coaches and one Hall of Fame coach is improbable. However, if they stay clear of
injuries on the O-line, this team will finish 13-3 at worst. The Patriots,
Texans, Giants (playing against his brother without Von Miller), Redskins (vs.
Shanahan, former Super Bowl Champ Bronco coach) and two division games are
contests that are up in the air. If the Broncos go 3-3 in those six games, they
end up 13-3 or 12-4 at worst.
Sure bet is the 1/5
odds to win the AFC West with the Over 11.5 wins being the next best. It is
always dangerous to take the favorite to win the AFC and Super Bowl, so I would
stay away from those bets until mid-season.
Kansas City Chiefs—Over/Under 7 wins
Sometimes the best thing to be if you are not in contention
for a title is the worst team in the league. Only time will tell if
this proves to be as true for the Chiefs this year as it was for the Colts last
year. While they didn’t have an NFL-ready QB to draft at #1, they did make
strong moves to address all their weaknesses. Most people forget that the
Chiefs had the same amount of Pro-bowl players last year as the Broncos: six.
This means that new Head Coach Andy Ried isn’t just rebuilding a team, he has
one that can contend quickly.
Injuries, leadership and inadequate coaching proved to be
too much for all that talent to produce wins. Running back Jamaal Charles is a big key to
the Chief’s success offensively as they became very one-dimensional when they
were without him last season. Unfortunately, that dimension meant passing the
ball with limited weapons, pass protection problems, and an average QB in Matt
Cassell. Fortunately, this was a ticket to the first pick of the 2013 draft,
namely OT Eric Fisher. Also, adding veteran QB Alex Smith to the roster ensures
leadership and talent at the helm of the Chiefs’ offense. They have an awesome
defense that is loaded with talent, especially at LB. This group is good!
The combo of GM John Dorsey and Head Coach Andy Ried was a
necessary move at a perfect time. The organization, the players, the city, the
mayor, and anyone else you can think of has welcomed both of them with open
arms, willing to do whatever it takes to win and win immediately! Coach Reid is
coming off one of the most difficult personal years that anyone could live
through, which will energize this seasons’ purpose all the more. If they don’t
win lot of games, however, just beating the Broncos will be a step in the right
direction.
The list of changes the Chiefs have made isn’t as long as
other teams, but all moves were good. I look for this team not only to give the
Broncos a tough run, but also make a run at a wild card spot. So bet on them
all year, or at least until Vegas gives them more credit.
While their schedule doesn’t look as easy as it should for a
last place team, I recommend taking the
Over 7 wins and put some money on them to make the playoffs; it may pay off
big because this team is good! They will finish 2nd in the division
based on two truths: 1) Andy Ried’s staff will out-coach the Chargers &
Raiders, and
2) The Broncos are too good this year.
The odds of the Chiefs becoming Super Bowl champs is
50/1….not recommended but maybe worth a small amount of play.
San Diego Chargers—Over/Under 7.5 wins
Both Chargers fans and Broncos fans will agree that the fate
of their teams last season was determined in one game—October 15, 2012 Broncos
at Chargers. Quentin Jammer (now a Bronco) intercepted a Manning goal line pass
and ran it back 100 yards to complete the Chargers first half domination putting
them up 24-0. The second half included FIVE Phillip Rivers turnovers and the
Broncos prevailing 35-24. The Broncos did not lose another game until the
Division playoffs and the Chargers went 4-6 to close out the season.
In the end, Head Coach Norv Turner lost his job after a few
years of instability and has been replaced by Mike McCoy—former Denver Broncos
Offensive Coordinator. McCoy is an
offensive mastermind who has hired Ken Whisenhunt as his Defensive Coordinator
(former Arizona Cardinals head Coach). This move not only mirrors what John Fox
and John Elway modeled for him at Mile High, but also will prove vital to their
success this year.
The Chargers have one of the best defensive backfields in
the NFL but haven’t solved their offensive line problems. Signing LT Max Starks
was the best they could come up with—this is average at best. On top of that, rookie LB Manti Te’o may have
to play a significant amount due to several injuries at LB. With Rivers aging
and his turnovers increasing, their offensive scheme is limited, putting way
too much pressure on the defense and running game. McCoy, however, changed his
offensive scheme with Tebow in Denver and won not only the division but a
playoff game as well. The question will be—can he manage his first year as head
coach and lead his offense at the same time and at the same level as he has
recently? Big question!
The Chargers failed to go over 7 wins last season, but I see
that improving this year. If they do win more than 7, it is because the
McCoy/Whisenhunt coaching combo is that good.
It is risky but I’m
recommending the Over 7.5 wins, with the Chargers finishing 3rd
in the AFC West. I think they can finish 8-8.
They have a schedule that could produce a great start and lead to a
confidence that will produce a few upsets. The Chargers are a definite long
shot not worth betting to win the Super Bowl at 50/1, so keep your hard earned
money.
And finally, …Oakland
Raiders—Over/Under 5.5 wins
The Oakland Raiders have been struggling due to poor management
for the past three or four years. While they continue to make some moves that
make the team better, they have dug themselves a hole that will be difficult to
get out of anytime soon. They are predicted by many to have the first pick in
the 2014 draft, so writing anything good about them is tough—especially when
you’re a Denver Bronco fan who grew up routing for two teams: the Broncos and whoever
the Raiders are playing – words spoken directly from my best friends mouth!
Not too long ago, October 24, 2010, the Raiders traveled to
Denver to take on their rival team in a pivotal game for former Bronco head
coach Josh McDaniels. Needless to say, the Raiders blew out the Broncos 59-14,
setting first quarter and first half scoring & yardage records. The Raiders looked awesome (and I was
present…ugh) and the Broncos appeared to be the worst team in the league. Wow,
how quickly things change in the NFL.
Which Matt Flynn Will Show Up - Maroon 5's Drummer or Packers' Former Back-Up?
The key to success for the Raiders this year will fall on
the shoulders of QB Matt Flynn and the defense. The list of holes to fill on
both sides of the ball is long, but the potential is there for success, just
not this year or any time soon. Darren
McFadden is a Pro-Bowl running back for six games a year, but that is all he
seems to provide. Al Davis would spend a ton of money to get his team good quick,
but in his passing (RIP) his successful influence on the team died too. His
son, Mark Davis, is still learning the business but if he has any of his dad’s
skills, it won’t be long before they are the feared Black and Silver again.
I recommend the
taking the Under 5.5 wins and betting against this team all year.
Sorry Raider fans…maybe next year.
My predicted final standings for the AFC West this year:
Broncos 13-3
Chiefs 9-7
Chargers 8-8
Raiders 4-12
Texas Todd
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