NFL Week 9 Picks ATS: Favs in the Morning Dog Day Afternoon

LAST WEEK: 9-5 ATS

SEASON TO DATE: 65-53 ATS

FRIDAY FIVE TO DATE: 8-3 ATS (4-2 last week including bonus pick)


Goddamn, stupid Pennsylvania teams. That's Pittsburgh and Philadelphia for the geographically challenged. If you're anything like Marco and me, you sometimes get fifteen minutes into a game and say, "What the hell was I thinking?" Really - the Eagles in disarray over the undefeated Falcons? Ben Rothlesberger and the 100 year-old defensive coordinator of the Steelers losing to a rookie? What were we thinking? Had we picked the right Pennsylvania teams, we'd be looking at an 11-3 week, a victory in our pool, and no residual smack talk from our Denver Bronco-loving commissioner. As it is, we'll take 9-5, especially on the heels of a three week 26-15 winning streak.

So, Happy Halloween everyone. Let's jump right into our picks for the week, beginning as always with our Thursday Night game - a special one that pits the most undervalued team in the NFL this week against the justifiably most undervalued team in the NFL this season. Our picks our in bold with HOME TEAMS in capitals.

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (-8.5) over Kansas City Chiefs: Like we said, Rivers and Co. are coming in underrated after a poor offensive showing against the Browns last week. It's true they could have played that game three more times and not hit the over, but don't let that fool you. Although the Chiefs play well as a dog of 8+ (6-1 ATS in their last 7), San Diego has been equally good at home against Kansas City, winning 7 of 8 SU. Besides, the Raiders beat the Chiefs by ten last week in Kansas City, and the Chargers are much better than the Raiders...and the Chiefs...combined. Chargers win big, giving favorites their first Thursday Night win of the season. 

Denver Broncos (-3.5) over CINCINNATI BENGALS: The Broncos will quadruple cover AJ Green, and the Bengals offense will come to a screeching halt. At least that's what Marco and I would do if we were John Fox. Denver's offense is in mid-season form and it's only mid-season, which means big days for Peyton, Willis, and Demaryius- which ironically are the first names of our friend Jimmy the Weasel's children. If you want numbers with that burger, Denver is 12-2 SU in their last 14 against Cincy, and they've covered all three times as a favorite this year. 

                                      

                              Demaryius as a Replacement Ref

Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) over CLEVELAND BROWNS: Giving any Harbaugh two weeks to prepare for anything is like gobble, gobble, turkey. John, Jim, and the football gods know exactly what that means. It means the Ravens are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 following a bye. And let me remind you, Senator Reid, "You are no Harbaugh." The way overvalued Browns get stomped by the perfectly-prepared Joe Flacco who took the Texans blowout personally and will make it 5 in a row ATS when visiting Cleveland. 

GREEN BAY PACKERS (-10.5) over Arizona Cardinals: The wheels are coming off in the desert, and we don't mean training wheels. Week by week, Arizona is starting to look like the worst team in the NFL. They started out strong, got banged up, and now they literally have no offensive line to stop Clay Matthews and the Packers defensive rush. They are a terrific team ATS as a dog of 8+ going 9-3 in their last 12, but Aaron Rogers laughs at ATS stats, especially after not covering against Jacksonville last week. This is a classic undervalued vs. undervalued. Take the home team and give up the big line. 

HOUSTON TEXANS (-10.5) over Buffalo Bills: Giving Houston two weeks to brainstorm all the different ways they are going to run all over the horrible Buffalo defense is like giving a Harvard graduate like Ryan Fitzpatrick a Wonderlic Test. It's just not fair. We are going to disappoint Jimmy the Weasel twice this week by taking another big favorite. The Texans are the most balanced team in the NFL, they are winning the Spread Bowl at 5-2 ATS/3-1 at home and they are 10-0 SU in their last 10 as a favorite of 8+. Numbers may never lie, but they sure can be manipulated.

                       

                                 Ludacris as Anthony Davis

Miami Dolphins (-2.5) over INDIANAPOLIS COLTS: Marco and I are finally believers in the Dolphins. Their defense earned Marco 22 fantasy points last week, so he's all in. Miami may also be the most confident team in the league right now and they are spread-covering fools on the road at 3-1. They are also 6-0 ATS in their last 6 visits to Indy, so they must love the turf. And by they we mean they. We really don't know any of their names or how they do it, but they do. Take them and give up the points.

Detroit Lions (-3.5) over JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS: As long as the wide receiver Titus Young continues to perform well, the Lions offense is back. Teams will have to back off of Megatron and Detroit should be able to string a few games together and get back in the playoff hunt. Detroit has struggled historically against the Jags 0-3 SU and ATS in their last three, but Detroit has also struggled historically period. The teams probably haven't played since the Detroit became a respectable team two years ago. The Lions stop the run well, and be honest - what else do the Jags have going for them?

Chicago Bears (-3.5) over TENNESSEE TITANS: Plain and simple, the Bears will dominate in all facets of the game. Colorful and complicated, the Bears are 15-2 SU in their last 17 as a favorite, their defense will probably outscore the Titans offense, and their team as a whole is starting to give us glimpses as to why Marco called them his pre-season Super Bowl Sleeper. 

                                 

    Cutler Blows...impressive Halloween smoke rings

WASHINGTON (-3.5) over Carolina Panthers: In what looked to be a game of the week during the pre-season, RG3 is facing his prototype CN1 in a battle of mediocrity. Cam Newton and RG3 will be compared every second of this game. The difference is Cam will self-destruct with the pressure and cool, calm, and collected RG3 will produce just enough offense to outscore Carolina by a touchdown in a game that promises to be a shootout. Buyer beware, however, although the Redskins are 5-0 SU recently against the Panthers, they are also 1-5 ATS in their last 6 going into a bye. Go figure that one out. We still like the Fab Freshman against the Super-Sophomore Slump. 

Tampa Bay (+1.5) over OAKLAND RAIDERS: We don't know how Tampa Bay is getting points in this game, and I'd even give up points in a wager that this game will make another appearance in our Friday Five. Look for Josh Freeman to continue his bounce back season against a weak Raiders defense. This game is going OVER and it's going to Tampa Bay. 

Minnesota Vikings (+5.5) over SEATTLE SEAHAWKS: This is another classic under-valued line, with the Vikings getting way too many points after being embarrassed at home by the Bucs. It's difficult to imagine Seattle putting up enough points to beat any NFL team by more than five points. Seattle may be 11-2 ATS in their last 13 at home, but we'd venture to guess that a lot of those have been as an underdog. Take Minnesota and the points.

Pittsburgh Steelers (+3.5) over NEW YORK GIANTS: We believe this will come down to the best 4th quarter QB's in the business...and their reliable field goal kickers. Either way, if we take Pittsburgh, we win. Although Pittsburgh is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 as an underdog, the road team has won 4 of these teams last 5 meetings. Yes, that's dating back to 1991 - but numbers never, ever, ever lie. 

                                   

                               Best Polamalu costume 2012 

Dallas Cowboys (+4.5) over ATLANTA FALCONS: This is Marco's blindspot special. He is comparable to Jerry Jones in his continued belief that the Cowboys can still win the Super Bowl. The Falcons finally lose as the Cowboys greatly improved secondary shuts down the Falcon Flight Attack. I know that's what we said last week against the Giants, but if they hadn't spotted them 23 points...Just take the Falcons, okay. We're taking the 6-2 ATS as a dog Cowboys. And that's final. 

NEW ORLEANS (-3.5) over Philadelphia Eagles: New Orleans is my blindspot special. The Eagles are dealing with the drama they've created at QB along with Andy Reid again being on the hot seat. Andy Reid may have an impressive ATS record coming off a loss after a bye after a home overtime loss to an NFC Central opponent, but we don't see that trend continuing this week. Seriously? No, not seriously. There may be stats like that out there, but we don't have theVIP pass. The Philadelphia Eagles are going down like a crack whore trying to get a fix, while the Saints still have some magic left in their dome. The Saints will go marching on...possibly to a .500 record by season's end - at home that is. Not cumulatively. That would be nuts. 

Happy Betting Everyone. Hope you get treats instead of tricks. 

Vinny and Marco