Week 4 Results: 8-7 ATS
Season To Date: 33-30 ATS
After a rough start last Sunday, Marco and I managed to climb back over .500 thanks to the Giants and Bears covering the Sunday/Monday Night games. If you're anything like us - and I'm pretty sure you are - once we knew we weren't going to win our pool this week, we were ready to look at the Vegas lines for Week 5 and move on.
Monday afternoon before the Cowboys and Bears kicked off, Marco and I had our picks analyzed, talked out, and hammered down. We felt great about our choices. There was balance between home teams and away teams, underdogs and favorites, animal mascots and Native American slurs. Our picks were infallibly perfect. This was definitely feeling like a 14-0 week. Until the next morning. A sports radio blurb, an offensive or defensive stat, an article with picks ATS (which are really hard to find Monday Night), and we found ourselves doubting our initial assessments.
By Wednesday morning, having sided with almost every team in the NFL, it started to feel reminiscent of picking up girls on strobe-lit dance floors back in the '90s. Under the right light, almost anything can look pretty good. Back then Vinny and I would change our minds a half a dozen times before finally getting drunk enough to do something about it. If the spread was good enough we took the points if you know what I mean. The sun always came up the next morning, but it didn't always shine down upon us and say, "Winner."
Let's kick this week off with our Thursday Night Special
Arizona Cardinals @ St. Louis Rams
Does anyone here remember the Houston Oilers? Not only does Jeff Fisher remember them, he played for them, coached them, convinced them to relocate, then convinced the state of Tennessee to allow to remain The Oilers (what???) while he alone came up with a mascot that not only embodied and personified strength and greatness but also allowed for poetic alliteration. That's right - Tennessee Titans. Say that ten times fast. It's easy, because Jeff Fisher made it that way.
Here's my point. Last week, while Marco was engaging in his favorite number crunching hobby, he decided to take a closer look at the games where the Vegas line finished up at less than three points. What he discovered is that of the 22 games with these lines, 15 have been won by the team whose coach had more years of head coaching experience. If Ken Wisenhunt remembers the Oilers, it's probably from a documentary he watched during his high school history class.
Jeff Fisher is a handsome, mustachio-ed, experienced winner. He has inspired a Ram's team which had won only 15 games in 5 years to an undefeated start (2-0) at home this year. The betting trends all favor the Cardinals. They're 5-1 ATS in their last six division games. They're 8-3 ATS in their last 11 against the Rams. They're 11-2 in their last 13 SU. All of that is true. However, those same Cardinals are 0-1 against Jeff Fisher.
Both of these teams have demonstrated an ability to play defense and to score just enough to win ball games. Defensively, the Cardinals give up fewer points while the Rams allow fewer yards. On offense, the Rams rank 27th while the Cardinals are down and 31st. Yes, the Cardinals are undefeated, have beaten the Patriots, survived the Dolphins, and dealt with the adversity of losing their starting quarterback in Week 1.
St. Louis, however, has Greg the Leg. And he was almost all they needed last week - along with a Jeff Fisher designed fake field goal for a touchdown.
This division rivalry will come down to two things: the home crowd in St. Louis, thrilled that they still have something to cheer for after their Cardinals disappointing loss to the Atlanta Braves in the play-in wild card game, and a single - albeit impressive - touchdown by the (gasp) Rams offense.
That's our bold prediction for Thursday Night. Take the Rams and points. And if anyone's offering an Under for the Under, we'd take that, too.
Pick: Jeff Fisher +1.5
Check in tomorrow morning for the rest of our Week 5 Picks ATS
Monday afternoon before the Cowboys and Bears kicked off, Marco and I had our picks analyzed, talked out, and hammered down. We felt great about our choices. There was balance between home teams and away teams, underdogs and favorites, animal mascots and Native American slurs. Our picks were infallibly perfect. This was definitely feeling like a 14-0 week. Until the next morning. A sports radio blurb, an offensive or defensive stat, an article with picks ATS (which are really hard to find Monday Night), and we found ourselves doubting our initial assessments.
By Wednesday morning, having sided with almost every team in the NFL, it started to feel reminiscent of picking up girls on strobe-lit dance floors back in the '90s. Under the right light, almost anything can look pretty good. Back then Vinny and I would change our minds a half a dozen times before finally getting drunk enough to do something about it. If the spread was good enough we took the points if you know what I mean. The sun always came up the next morning, but it didn't always shine down upon us and say, "Winner."
Let's kick this week off with our Thursday Night Special
Arizona Cardinals @ St. Louis Rams
Does anyone here remember the Houston Oilers? Not only does Jeff Fisher remember them, he played for them, coached them, convinced them to relocate, then convinced the state of Tennessee to allow to remain The Oilers (what???) while he alone came up with a mascot that not only embodied and personified strength and greatness but also allowed for poetic alliteration. That's right - Tennessee Titans. Say that ten times fast. It's easy, because Jeff Fisher made it that way.
Here's my point. Last week, while Marco was engaging in his favorite number crunching hobby, he decided to take a closer look at the games where the Vegas line finished up at less than three points. What he discovered is that of the 22 games with these lines, 15 have been won by the team whose coach had more years of head coaching experience. If Ken Wisenhunt remembers the Oilers, it's probably from a documentary he watched during his high school history class.
Jeff Fisher is a handsome, mustachio-ed, experienced winner. He has inspired a Ram's team which had won only 15 games in 5 years to an undefeated start (2-0) at home this year. The betting trends all favor the Cardinals. They're 5-1 ATS in their last six division games. They're 8-3 ATS in their last 11 against the Rams. They're 11-2 in their last 13 SU. All of that is true. However, those same Cardinals are 0-1 against Jeff Fisher.
Both of these teams have demonstrated an ability to play defense and to score just enough to win ball games. Defensively, the Cardinals give up fewer points while the Rams allow fewer yards. On offense, the Rams rank 27th while the Cardinals are down and 31st. Yes, the Cardinals are undefeated, have beaten the Patriots, survived the Dolphins, and dealt with the adversity of losing their starting quarterback in Week 1.
St. Louis, however, has Greg the Leg. And he was almost all they needed last week - along with a Jeff Fisher designed fake field goal for a touchdown.
This division rivalry will come down to two things: the home crowd in St. Louis, thrilled that they still have something to cheer for after their Cardinals disappointing loss to the Atlanta Braves in the play-in wild card game, and a single - albeit impressive - touchdown by the (gasp) Rams offense.
That's our bold prediction for Thursday Night. Take the Rams and points. And if anyone's offering an Under for the Under, we'd take that, too.
Pick: Jeff Fisher +1.5
Check in tomorrow morning for the rest of our Week 5 Picks ATS
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