NFL Week 6 Picks ATS: Picks and Predictions for All the Games

Last Week: 6-8 ATS
This Week: 1-0 ATS
Season Total: 40-38 ATS
Number of CBSSports Experts We're Better Than: 6 out of 8
How That Feels: Not priceless, but good enough to keep on prognosticating

Phew - what a relief. Thank you over-achieving Tennessee Titans and aging, banged-up Pittsburgh Steelers for making me feel like a genius and allowing me to avoid a post-game rant from a sleep-deprived Marco who only advocated the pick because I asked him while he was napping. I know I violated Gambling Tip #1 - gambling alone - but extreme circumstances call for extreme measures. Perhaps my pick was motivated in part to get Marco's attention back onto the important things in life, but I also had a feeling that having Elisabeth Hasselbeck as a sister-in-law might act as an Inverse Curse of the Hot WAG for Titans QB Matt.

http://www.thespreadzone.blogspot.com/2012/08/curse-of-hot-wag.html

I know, it was a stretch, but isn't that what gambling is? Now let's stretch it out for the rest of the games on the Week 6 slate, see if we can't extend our lead over CBSSports and the other rookies at Yahoo and ESPN who don't even go ATS like the real men of the world. Here are our Week 6 Picks ATS, with home teams in CAPS and winners in bold.

CLEVELAND BROWNS (+2.5) over Cincinnati Bengals: For the most part, the Cleveland Browns have been good to us when we've picked them and good to us when we haven't, going 3-2 ATS during their 0-5 SU start. This week just might be their first real chance to take home an SU/ATS Bifecta against division rival Cincinnati. The Bengals have been god awful ATS within the AFC North, going 0-5-2 in their last 7, while the Browns are 5-1-1 ATS within the division. Cincinnati has terrific weapons, but the Cleveland Browns strengths are their defense and their blissfully ignorant youth that doesn't seem to get down about losing. Take the Browns and the points.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (-3.5) over Kansas City Chiefs: The Buccaneers are coming off a bye, they've played teams close all year, and although they are 1-3 on the season, they are 3-1 ATS. They are also 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games, but that was before Greg Don't-Take-A-Fucking-Knee Shiano showed up. The Chiefs meanwhile are coming off a slug fest with the Baltimore Ravens in which they lost their starting quarterback. If they went 1-4 with Matt Cassell, how well will they fare without him. Take the Bucs and give up the points.

St. Louis Rams (+3.5) over MIAMI DOLPHINS: This one comes down to Jeff Fisher again. The teams match up as statistically on defense, while the offenses are disparate in part due to the schedule they've played. Even though they've killed us this year we can't enthusiastically hop on the Tannehill/Bush Train to South Beach. Instead, we're sticking with the man who gave us our second of three Thursday Night victories in a row. The Rams are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 as a dog. Miami is also 5-1 ATS in their last 6 at home. Something has got to give and we think it will be the Dolphins O-line. This Rams defense is for real. They will keep this close if not win straight up.

                                           

Detroit Lions (+5.5) over PHILADELPHIA EAGLES: This is a tough game to handicap. Any stats you find with regards to the Detroit Lions (i.e. 1-5 ATS in their last 6 as a dog, 0-7 in recent history on the road coming off a bye week, and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 against Philly) are probably taken from the last decade when they were McMired in the basement of the NFL. This game feels a bit like the Titans and the Steelers. We don't have  great reasons to take the Lions, except that they are a talented group who has underachieved thus far. We see Stafford and Megatron having a break-out game, while Vick finally takes the hit that sidelines him for a couple of games.

ATLANTA FALCONS (-8.5) over Oakland Raiders: We would have taken the Falcons at -13.5. Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan is having a phenomenal year and has three targets in Julio Jones, Roddy White, and Tony Gonzalez who can all jump about fifteen feet into the air. The Raiders, on the other hand, have an aging quarterback in Carson Palmer who is trying in vain to reclaim his glory DAY in Cincinnati when he got his knee blown out against the Steelers in the first round of the 2006 playoffs. Take the Falcons, give up the points, and if you're just gambling with one other person, throw them a few extra to make it fair.

Indianapolis Colts (+3.5) over NEW YORK JETS: Reggie Wayne is making us wonder whether he wasn't the real secret ingredient to Manning's success. This is another tough game because the Colts are probably over-valued for beating the Packers while the Jets are similarly inflated for covering against the Texans. Therefore, we are taking the points. We're not sure the Colts have enough emotional reserve to win another game as an underdog (6-2 ATS in their last 8 in that role), but we're pretty certain they'll cover against a Jets team who is without their offensive and defensive players. The Jets might win, but it won't be by more than a field goal.

Dallas Cowboys (+3.5) over BALTIMORE RAVENS: It has been six or seven seasons now that we don't know what the Dallas Cowboys are made of. They are a roller coaster ride almost as expensive as their new stadium. The Ravens, on the other hand, are money at home where they always seem to win games (3-0) but struggle to cover the spread (1-2 ATS). The Cowboys are coming off a bye and will surely be prepared enough to lose this game by less than four. Take the points and expect an upset.

                           

Buffalo Bills (+4.5)  over ARIZONA CARDINALS: This pick was a late audible. We waffled from Bills to Cards and back. The Cardinals will be undervalued this week because of their disappointing showing in St. Louis against what is shaping up to be a legit defense. The Bills are coming off an embarrassing game in San Francisco to an even warmer West Coast venue in Phoenix. They're probably even more undervalued. We're sure Buffalo won't get blown out by 40, because although the Cardinals have won 8 in a row SU at home, going 6-2 ATS along the way, they play close games. Meanwhile, the Bills are a discouraging 1-9 SU and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 as a dog. Numbers don't lie - except Thursday night in Tennessee, and about 50% of the rest of the games. We're rolling the dice on another close victory by Arizona - Bills cover the spread.

New England Patriots (-3.5) over SEATTLE SEAHAWKS: My mother-in-law is an animal communicator/pet psychic and she said this was going to be a great year for animal mascots. When I asked her to narrow that down from exactly half of the football teams she said, "Bird Teams." She is also a huge Seahawks fan because she likes their logo. She may be right about the Ravens and the Falcons, perhaps even the Cardinals or the Eagles. The Seahawks, however, are not going anywhere this year, and certainly not against the likes of Tom Brady, Wes Welker, Danny Woodhead, and a young defense that has gained confidence and skill since last year. Look for the Pats to start winning the games they should - BIG.

SAN FRANCISCO FORTY NINERS (-5.5) over New York Giants: Doesn't Jim Harbaugh look like the kind of guy who holds a grudge? But he's also paternal as hell, giving timely hugs to Alex Smith last year that carried the young man into the second tier of NFL quarterbacks. In an effort to combine these strengths, look for Harbaugh to put Kyle Williams under center, in the back field, on the flanks, returning kick-offs, and even putting up a few field goals. This will be a redemption game for everyone in San Francisco for last year's NFC Championship loss.

Minnesota Vikings (2.5) over WASHINGTON REDSKINS: With or without RG3, the Redskins will not be able to stop Adrian Peterson or Christian Ponder. What? That's right, we said Christian Ponder. He puts the King in Viking, while his girlfriend puts the Double D in "D-Damn."

                                    

We're not sure how the Curse of the WAG has not impacted the Vikings but we're pretty sure it continues to be off-set by the ghost of Mrs. Brad Childress. Taking the Vikings to roll to 5-1 SU/4-1 ATS.

                                 

Green Bay Packers (+5.5) over HOUSTON TEXANS: We keep betting on or against the Texans on the wrong week, but one of these days it's bound to pay off. Giving the Packers that many points feels insulting to a Super Bowl champion team coming off a 15-1 season. Marco and I both feel the Pack has not just cover but win this game to save their season. Their defense will step it up for this Prime Time match-up, while Aaron Rodgers will make Houston's defense look like Dallas's did when Wade Phillips was there.

Denver Broncos (+2.5) over SAN DIEGO CHARGERS: This was a toss-up game that we flipped and flopped on, finally concurring that if Drew Brees could throw all over the San Diego secondary, Peyton Manning should be able to do the same thing. We still don't think much of the Broncos as a team, but if Tebow could help them win several games they shouldn't have last year, Manning should be able to do the same thing this season. Feels like an instant classic with a two-minute drive sealing it for the Broncos as time expires.

Happy Betting.

Vinny and Marco