NFL Week 7 Picks ATS: 13 Teams Guaranteed to Win AND Cover

First of all, let's all take a moment to stop whatever we're doing, scroll down to the comments section, and wish Marco a Happy Birthday. What a week for my younger half - a first time father, a 30th time birthday boy, and most importantly 9-5 ATS last week. Thank you Peyton Manning comeback. Thank you Phillip Rivers mental exhaustion from having too many kids at home. And thank you brilliant brilliant teamwork from the people behind the people working so hard here at The Spread Zone.

Last Week: 9-5 ATS
Season to Date: 48-43 

                                   
                                   Underdog Last Week

This week we're giving you our picks and the process by which we came to them. Our mission at The Spread Zone is not only to provide you with crunched numbers, ATS stats, and sometimes blind guesses, but also to help you develop your own take-home skills and philosophies in the scientific world of random probability.

Last week Marco spent hours developing the O.C.D. gambling strategy. Not to be confused with the anxiety disorder common to gamblers, OCD (Offense + Coaching experience + Defense) uses regression analysis along with time travel to come up with a combined Power Number for each team. Using said team numbers retroactively (time machine) along with a series of complicated calculations - mostly just dividing by two and adding three to the home team - we would have gone 14-2 ATS in Week 1. Marco was ready to publish. Until we got to Week 2, where O.C.D. would have landed us at 6-10 ATS.

Nonetheless, an idea was born, which brings us to this week. Our strategy this week combines two ideas:

Step 1. Who Vegas expects us to choose and
Steap 2. The gambling Law of Balance

It dawned on us the other day that on a week-to-week basis NFL teams are either under-valued (UV), over-valued (OV), or just plain valued (V) depending on their performance the previous week. What Marco and I decided to do was to subjectively label each team coming into Week 7, then determine the winner ATS accordingly.

Let's take the Thursday Night game for example:

The Seattle Seahawks (OV): We determined they are over-valued after a win against New England at home.

The San Francisco Forty Niners (UV): Undervalued as a result of being crushed by the defending Super Bowl champion New York Giants.

The Line: The Niners are favored by 7.5, and we felt the 0.5 hook was begging us to take Seattle. An under-valued team at home, however, against and over-valued division rival, and we're taking the Niners.

Side Note: If both teams in a match-up are OV, UV, or just plain V - like the Jags coming off a bye and the Raiders coming off an impressive loss - then we roll with the home team.

Sticking with Step 1, we made our picks accordingly. The four games with a line of 5-6 presented some problems, but at the end of the day we had 11 favorites and 2 underdogs. Initially we had some concerns about this lopsidedness, but then we took a closer look at some numbers.

Last Week: Underdogs went 12-2 ATS
Season to Date: Underdogs are 56-35 ATS

Does that mean it's all going to balance out this week? Absolutely not, but it stands to reason that the numbers, much like a flipped coin, will eventually balance out. If there's one thing Vegas hates, it's predictability. This brings us to Step 2.

Having chosen 11 favorites and 2 underdogs, we decided that if we truly believed this was going to be a favorite heavy week, it would be mathematically more prudent to choose all favorites. If we incorrectly choose the underdogs, we might end up 9-4 or 10-3. If we're correct that only two dogs cover and we pick all favorites, we end up 11-2, win our pool, and the respect of millions of readers. Well, tens of readers.

                                     
                                                  Underdog this week

Without further ado, here are our Picks ATS for Week 7 on the NFL schedule:

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS -7.5 over Seattle Seahawks: The last time the Niners Gold Rush Defense looked bad, they came out the next week and shut out their opponent. Seattle is a confident group right now and as an underdog 14-3-1 in their last 18, but they're 0-3 SU and ATS in their last three visits to Candlestick. Look for San Francisco to stop Skittles and Russell Wilson. The Niners will dominate both sides of the ball and move into first place in the division.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS -5.5 over Arizona Cardinals: Kolb is out. The horrible Arizona offensive line alone will lose this game and another quarterback, as the Minnesota pass rush will prove to be overwhelming for the regressing Cardinals. Arizona is 0-7 in Minneapolis since 1980, and although they've won 7 of 9 as an underdog, we don't see that happening on Sunday. 

Dallas Cowboys -2.5 over CAROLINA PANTHERS: The Cowboys are terrible ATS on the road as favorites carrying a 3-10-1 record in their last 14 into Sunday's match-up with Carolina. Watching Dez Bryant take over the game at times last week against the Ravens, however, showed us the Cowboys might have actually figured out how to use its weapons. The Panthers defense is horrible. We see another breakout game for Dez. He deserves it - he's followed all the rules so far. Now if only he could follow all the right routes.

New Orleans Saints -2.5 over TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS: We still believe the Saints can beat mediocre teams, especially when given two weeks to prepare. This could be an emotionally charged win for New Orleans if Jonathan Vilma does return to the field. The Saints win games where the line is less than 3, going 10-1 ATS since 2001. Break out the champagne, the Saints will be 2-4 and on the rise.

                                    

Green Bay Packers -5.5 over ST. LOUIS RAMS: On paper, the Rams look like a great bet, going 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 and posting a 11-4 ATS record at home in their past 15 October home games. Unfortunately, this game is going to feel like November in a dome in St. Louis. Aaron Rodgers is all about padding his stats and running up the score when he can. If he can do this against a great Texans defense, he will easily duplicate it against the over-achieving Rams defense. Sorry Fisher, but Rodgers to Jordy Nelson will be in full effect. We laughed at the betting line on this one. Plus, the San Francisco Giants will have just knocked out the St. Louis Cardinals in 6 games, leaving the home crowd drunk and deflated. 

NEW YORK GIANTS -6.5 over Washington Redskins: A battle of the trends in The Meadowlands. The Giants don't lose October games going 15-2 SU in their last 17. Washington's recent history, however, boasts records of 6-2 ATS within their division and 4-1 ATS as a road dog.The Skins defense was a lot better last year when they beat Eli both meetings. The Giants will control this game from the kickoff. Can you even name another Redskins player besides RG3? 

HOUSTON TEXANS -5.5 over Baltimore Ravens: The Texans are 7-2 ATS against the AFC North and 7-3 ATS lifetime heading into a bye week. The Ravens trademark defense has been unimpressive this year, and with CB Webb and LB Ray Lewis out, they will struggle big time against a well-balanced Texans offense. And when we say well-balanced, we mean Arian Foster rushes the ball, catches it out of the backfield, and sometimes even throws it to himself. Just like the Niners, Houston's D will be playing angry this week.

                                 

BUFFALO BILLS -3.5 over Tennessee Titans: The veteran Hasslebeck always gives the Titans hope to stay in games, but his defense is atrocious this year, which probably has something to do with their 0-5 ATS mark in their last 5 road games. The Bills Spiller/FJax split attack will run all over Tennessee, while Fitzpatrick to Stevie Johnson will be showcased, which means we will finally get to see Stevie do another TD celebration.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS -3.5 over Cleveland Browns: The Colts are a different, a much better team, at home. It's hard for us to pick against our ATS-awesome Browns but, with Trent Richardson banged up, now's the time. The numbers don't support this pick with Cleveland going 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 as an underdog, which probably just means their last 10, but isn't this the week the entire universe balances out all at once?

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS -10.5 over New York Jets: Although New York is 9-3 in their last 12 as an underdog of 9 or more, Brady will pick apart the struggling Jets secondary. They will build up the score early and hand it over to Ridley to run for a big day. This one will be a blowout by halftime, as the Pats send a loud message to Rex Ryan and the rest of the AFC. That message is "This isn't Seattle bitches."

OAKLAND RAIDERS -4.5 over Jacksonville Jaguars: In the battle of crappy stats, the 2-10 SU in road games Jags face the 3-17-1 ATS in their last 21 as favorites Raiders. The Raiders are healthy and played very well last week against the Falcons. They will excel on offense against an overly-rested Jaguars team. Raiders confidence at home will have them winning by at least a touchdown.

Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5 over CINCINNATI BENGALS: The Steelers know how to beat the Bengals, going 9-2 ATS in their last 11 against their division rival. Clutch Big Ben against the worst defense in football.? You have to think the Steelers will win by at least a touchdown. Mike Tomlinson is smart enough to triple cover AJ Green, as the Steelers pull off a mildly impressive road cover.

CHICAGO BEARS -5.5 over Detroit Lions: Chicago loves being favored, going 7-2 ATS in their last 9 in this role. Detroit hasn't looked very good on offense, while the Bears have looked remarkable on defense. That match-up alone spells a huge win for Chicago. Even with Jay Cutler at the helm, we are so confident in a big win for Da Bears, we don't feel the need to even watch this game. I'm sure a baseball playoff game will be on.

                                  

There it is - the first 13-0 All Favorites Week in NFL history. Good luck out there. And remember to wish Marco a Happy Birthday below. 

Vinny and Marco