Week 5 Picks ATS: Revenge of the Favorites

Week 4 Record ATS: 8-7

Season to Date ATS: 33-30

If you haven't read seen our Thursday Night Special, check it out because it's one of only three underdogs we're picking this week.

http://www.thespreadzone.blogspot.com/2012/10/nfl-week-5-picks-ats-arizona-cardinals.html

That's right, folks. This week is going to be like the third Star Wars movie, only with fewer little, furry people (sorry Pedro Gomez) and with Jerry Jones reviving his famous performance as the Emperor.

                           

With the Cowboys on the bye, he has mercifully left his coaching responsibilities to...oh dammit what are those things called...oh yeah, coaches.

Five weeks into the season and it has been a bumpy ride for gamblers. A few teams are separating themselves, but most still hover between mediocre and pretty good. This week Marco and I see teams beginning to separate themselves. The good ones are going to be better and the ones in question will either show they are for real or begin their slide towards 6-and-10-dom.

This week we have a disproportionate number of favorites covering the spread. Home teams in CAPS.

CINCINNATI BENGALS -4.5 over Miami Dolphins: Expect another big game from Brian Hartline and the rest of the receiving corps for Miami. Although the Bengals defense remains the worst in the league, Andy Dalton and AJ Green will put up big numbers for Vinny's fantasy team, and the Bengals will put an end to Miami's ridiculous over-achieving ATS record. This will be close game until a late pick six gives the Bengals the cover.

Baltimore Ravens -4.5 over KANSAS CITY CHIEFS: Against popular belief, the Chiefs still lose just as badly at home. In fact they are becoming the most open-minded losers the NFL has seen in a while, losing at almost any venue and on any surface. Matt Cassel is now playing for his job. He will force the ball down field, leading to a couple key turnovers. Baltimore will use their extra rest and game-planning time to hand the Chiefs their seventh loss in their last eight home games. 

Green Bay Packers -7.5 over INDIANAPOLIS COLTS: Sad news in Indianapolis about Chuck Pagano. Nobody wants to root against the Colts this week. But let's face it - they're not Marshall. They're not Hoosiers. And the only movie called Remember the Colts won't be about a 4-12 rookie-driven rebuilding year. The Packers showed last week they will still demolish poor defenses. Even if the GB D doesn't have a good day, they will pressure Luck into poor decisions. Although the Packers recent history as a favorite 1-4 ATS isn't great, we believe they are playing the rest of this season on a Blue Brother's-like mission from God to reclaim the game that was taken from them. 

                                    

NEW YORK GIANTS -10.5 over Cleveland Browns: You know we love the Browns as a cover play most weeks, but all good things come to an end...at least for one week against the Giants. Don't give up on the boys from Cleveland, but the 462 mile drive from Ohio to NY will wear those rookies down. We're going to be honest here, the numbers don't support the Giants. Cleveland is 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 as an underdog, which loosely translates to "their last 6." The Giants on the other hand have gone 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 as a favorite. Call this one a hunch.

WASHINGTON REDSKINS +3.5 over Atlanta Falcons: If the Carolina game didn't wake them up, this one will. The Redskins are a difficult team to beat at home, and the District of Columbia is fired up about their improved product. The Falcons haven't traveled well the last couple years, especially to the NFC East where they are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11. Be ready for another let down game for Matt Ryan and Co. Redskins cover.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS -3.5 over Philadelphia Eagles: Two weeks to prepare for the turnover-prone Eagles sounds terrific - especially for old teams. Tomlin will have his defensive guys back and ready to take advantage of Mike Vick. A lot of people are picking Eagles because they are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 as a road dog, but we are confident they are all wrong. Since 1988 - that's right I said 1988 - the Eagles are 1-3 ATS in Pittsburgh, and one of those losses came against the Pirates. Vick is bound to get hurt in this one. Vinny and Marco Special. Lock it up.

                       

Chicago Bears -4.5 over JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS: If the Bears defense can grab two pick sixes against Romo, how many can they take away from  Gabbert? The correct answer is 6 and the line is +/- 2. Take the over and take the Bears. We love this betting line. Also, if you haven't used the Bears in your survivor pool- now's the time.

Seattle Seahawks +3.5 over CAROLINA PANTHERS: Seattle is a completely different team on the road than at home with inverse 0-2/2-0 records. Carolina, however, cannot stop the run. Marshawn Lynch will get his against the struggling Carolina defense, but Cam will play a lot better on Sunday without the prime time spotlight, prompting spectators to say, "Man, that guy's super." This week will mark the beginning of the "Are the Seahawks for real?" line of questioning. The answer is, "Not on the road." This week, however, they will have just enough to cover the spread in a low scoring snooze fest.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS -5.5 over Tennessee Titans: Just like their main weapon Chris Johnson, the whole Titans team is inconsistent. The Vikes defense is looking like it did a few years ago when they were dominant. Plus, how is Tennessee going to stop Percy Harvin and AD? They can't stop anyone, except maybe Chris Johnson if he played for a different team. Sure the Vikings are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 as a favorite, but this is the week we say, "Numbers be damned." It's not like math is science.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS -9.5 over Buffalo Bills: San Francisco has won 20 consecutive games as a favorite of 8+ points. Last week, they shut out the Jets. Two weeks before that the Jets dominated the Bills. Therefore, the Niners will completely destroy the Bills. That's math. And math is science.

Denver Broncos +7.5 over NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS: Remember the Colts? Tom Brady does. But now they're full-grown horses and they have a defense. Peyton's still riding bareback, and he still wants nothing more than to show everyone he is better than Tom. Have we said how much we love Peyton? The Patriots are tough at home (21-4 SU), but the Broncos are tough against the Pats (17-6 SU). This is going to be a fun game with scores being traded into the final seconds. 

                                       

                          Never handsome. Always good.

San Diego Chargers +3.5 over NEW ORLEANS SAINTS: Reports are that Ryan Mathews will be given a bigger role this week. We don't see the Saints stopping him and the passing attack. Look for a big game from Antonio Gates as the Chargers continue their dominance 6-2 ATS as a road underdog. Remember when the Saints were money in the bank at home? What difference a year, multiple suspensions, the loss of a head coach, and an off-season quarterback hold out make.

Houston Texans -7.5 over NEW YORK JETS: Do we really need to justify this one? Sanchez hears the footsteps of Tebow and the Houston defense. He struggles again this week against a well-oiled Texans team. Lame Monday Night Football game here as we think it'll be a blowout. If you still want numbers, how about Houston being 13-3 ATS in their last 16 as a favorite and New York conversely at 1-7 ATS in their last 8 in their increasingly familiar role as a dog. To add insult to injury, the Texans are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games. Yikes. 

So there you have it. That's 10 favorites to win or cover this week. Likely? No. But neither was an 11-5 underdog win in Week 3. The league is unpredictable, but the way we figure, it always comes back to about even when you're gambling. 

Good luck. But not Andrew Luck.

Vinny and Marco