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Sunday, October 20, 2013

NFL Picks Week 7: Cowboys Eagles Pick ATS

The Cowboys are three-point road dogs against their division rival Philadelphia Eagles.

By: MaChez, TSZ Expert

With the betting not going so well this season I decided it would be smart to start applying to graduate schools as a backup plan.  Unfortunately that means I need to take the GRE, and the studying is really cramping my writing schedule.  In an attempt to kill two birds with one stone, I’ve decided it would be smart to practice my analytical writing while preparing this article.  It’s a little bit of a departure from our normal breakdown, but I think it will suffice.  Here’s an example prompt straight from the GRE website:

Write a response in which you discuss the extent to which you agree or disagree with the following claim:  The Philadelphia Eagles will beat the visiting Dallas Cowboys by more than three points on Sunday in the Spread Zone Early Game of the Week.

Can the Philadelphia Eagles really win by more than three points against the division rival Dallas Cowboys in Sunday‘s matchup for first place in the NFC East?  21% of the public believes they can, citing injuries to star Cowboys DeMarcus Ware and DeMarco Murray along with quarterback Tony Romo’s tendencies to make mistakes in big games.  However, the rest of the betting population, including us here at The Spread Zone believe the Cowboys will cover as three-point underdogs because the Eagles’ are worse against talented teams, DeMarco Murray’s absence isn’t that big of a deal, and Tony Romo is a more experienced quarterback than Nick Foles.

Most people’s opinions of the Eagles have changed recently after they’ve pulled together two straight wins against the Giants and Buccaneers.  Unfortunately those people are very short-sited and forget how poorly Philadelphia was performing prior to those two gimme games.  If we look at the Eagles’ games against top teams, or at least those that aren’t one of the worst four teams in the league, they haven’t fared so well.  Three-point loss to the Chargers at home, thirteen-point loss to the Chiefs at home, thirty-two-point loss to the Broncos on the road.  Yes, the Cowboys have lost to the same three teams, but their losses have been closer and mainly on the road: Nine-point loss to the Chargers in San Diego (closer than the score implies), one-point loss to the Chiefs at Arrowhead, and three-point loss to the Broncos at home.


One thing keeping the Eagles in those games, or actually all the games, is LeSean McCoy.  He looks absolutely untouchable on the field and is leading the league in rushing by almost 100 yards.  He will definitely win the RB battle this week with Cowboy’s starter DeMarco Murray out, which many people think will hamper the Cowboys.   In reality, in comparison to the passing game, the running game hasn‘t really been winning the games for the Cowboys.  Their RBs have only averaged 85 yds per game, good for 8th worst in the league, so not having Murray in there shouldn’t make much difference.  Phillip Tanner and Joseph Randle should run the ball adequately enough to allow Romo to score points.


Using that mention of Romo to segue in to a new paragraph about quarterbacks, the subject of many a conversation these past few weeks is the emergence of Nick Foles and how much better he‘s playing than Vick was before getting injured.  Last week he actually won the NFC Offensive Player of the Week Award, which is well deserved after throwing for 3 TDs, no picks, and a 71% completion rating.  However, he has yet to start and win a game against anyone other than the Bucs.  Tony Romo on the other hand is now playing in his 15th Eagles-Cowboys matchup and is having his best season ever - 70% completion rating, 1700 yards, 14 touchdowns, and the third most points per game.  He faces the 2nd worst pass-defense (in yards) and should have no problem putting up 32+ points.


Although there are many people who see the Eagles winning this game at home by three, we see the Cowboys not only covering the spread but most likely winning straight up as well.  With two of the worst defenses in the league, expect this game to be a shootout and hit the over.

PREDICTION:  Dallas Cowboys (+3) vs. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
                                OVER 56


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