NFL Picks Week 5: Broncos vs Cowboys Pick and Prediction

   NFL Picks Week 5: Broncos vs Cowboys Pick and Prediction    

    

"Are you kidding me? Six points? That's insulting."

The Denver Broncos opened up as six point road favorites over the Dallas Cowboys in their much-anticipated Week 5 match-up. And by much-anticipated, I mean by Denver Broncos fans, my buddy Noah (Giants fan), and anyone who likes to win money. The Cowboy faithful are probably praying for a time machine to do three things: 1) go back to last Sunday and close out the San Diego Chargers, 2) go back to draft day and pick up a better secondary, and 3) go back to the '90's and bring Jimmie Johnson and Emmitt Smith back to the present. 



No offense to Dallas fans, but six points does not seem like enough to back the Cowboys considering the roll Peyton Manning has been on the last fifteen games. Let's take a closer look at some of the trends influencing sports fans/bettors of this Sunday afternoon match-up. 

The Denver Broncos

Although most Broncos fans would trade this streak for a win in last year's Division Round of the playoffs, the Denver Broncos are 15-0 SU and 12-3 ATS in their last 15 regular season games dating back to Week 6 of 2012. Their last loss came at the hands of the New England Patriots and since that 10 point loss a year ago Monday their average margin of victory has been 17.2 points, including 22 points/game this year. Peyton Manning has already thrown 16 touchdowns and no interceptions this season, and the offense is putting up 44+ points/game.

Looking for a reason to back the Cowboys? How about their head-to-head record? No, that's not going to do it - Denver is 6-2 SU/6-1-1 ATS. Perhaps the Bronc0s struggle as road favorites? Nope, 6-2 SU again and 7-1 ATS. I know- the tough NFC East teams must challenge that soft AFC Denver style, right? Only if you define "challenge" as 1 ATS loss in 9 games. This does not look good for the Dallas Cowboys or anyone else on Denver's upcoming schedule. 

The Dallas Cowboys

The Dallas Cowboys have given up 10 passing touchdowns, which is tied for most in the league - plus they just got shredded for 401 passing yards by Philip Rivers. Although that doesn't bode well for the Cowboys, there is hope on the offensive end for Dallas. Tony Romo (8 TDs, 1 INT) has been exceptional this year, Dez Bryant is almost uncoverable in the Red Zone, Jason Witten is Jason Witten, and DeMarco Murray (4.9 yards/carry) is the balancing force to their efficient air attack.

If Romo and Co. can match scores with Denver and keep Denver from going MannGang Style all over their home field, then the Cowboys might be able to cover the touchdown line and possibly hit the Broncos with their first loss in almost a year. 

The Spread

The OVER is 6-0-1 in Denver's last seven games and is set sky-high once again at 56 points this Sunday. With Dallas's inability to take control of the NFC East last week against a much weaker San Diego Chargers team, I don't see the Cowboys doing everything necessary (i.e. not punt once, don't turn the ball over, never settle for field goals) to win or cover this game. Although I understand the Broncos will eventually lose and eventually not cover a game, I see them not hitting the OVER long before that happens. And that won't happen Sunday either. 

Pick: Lay the points and take the OVER, and watch the Broncos hang 40 on the 'Boys.

Final Score: 42-24