NFL Picks Week 6: Saints Patriots Pick ATS Plus 14 Other Games

NFL Picks Week 6: Saints Patriots Pick ATS Plus 14 Other Games

This afternoon I received an ambiguous note through Facebook that read, "Vinny...baseball opportunity," from a guy who is constantly inviting me to theme parties and fantasy baseball leagues. I cringed, worried that a post-season Come as Your Favorite Pre-Civil Rights Politically Incorrect Mascot Party invite was just around the corner...and my Edmonton Eskimos jersey was still at the cleaners. Instead, I got the word that he had a line on tickets to Game 5 of the Oakland A's Detroit Tigers series tomorrow in Oak Town.



So, in the interest of time and rest, knowing I have an incredibly long day of driving, cheering, and celebrating ahead of me let's get right to our NFL Week 6 Picks Against the Spread for every game. I'll have our Experts Pick Page updated later today as soon as Granny C gets me her psychic locks of the week. For now - HOME TEAMS in CAPS and winners as always are bold.

Thursday Night  Football

CHICAGO BEARS (-8) over New York Giants: Wouldn't it be just like the Giants to finally cover once we stopped backing them? Unfortunately for New York fans, we believe that's more likely to happen next week when they host the Minnesota Vikings on Monday Night Football than on a windy, autumn day in Chicago. This week the Bears will continue their home dominance of 9-1 SU in their last 10 home games when favored by 7+, and although they're 4-6 ATS in those games, they covered two of three last year, losing one late on a backdoor cover by Carolina. Give up the points, watch the Giants hang around for a half, watch them implode in the third and fourth quarters, and then listen to Manning insist he's still "not playing that badly." He has the 33rd ranked QBR in the fourth quarter this year. There are only 32 teams. That's bad. Play the OVER 47, too, because like my daughter said in her picks, "Bears can run very fast."



Expert Team: 5-0 Bears

Sunday Morning Football

Oakland Raiders (+9) over KANSAS CITY CHIEFS: Listen. The last thing we want to do is appear to be prisoners of the moment like the rest of the betting public. After the Raiders beat the Chargers at home last week, 73% are taking the points in Kansas City because the Raiders actually resembled a football team and they did it in front of a national audience (whose bedtime hadn't already passed). Therefore, the Raiders might be over-valued. The Chiefs, on the other hand, have been solid all year long on both sides of the ball and are just plain valuable. We are not of the belief that the Raiders are suddenly a good football team capable of winning a road game in a hostile environment, but we do believe they are better than recent Raiders teams who have posted a 7-3 SU/9-1 ATS record in their last 10 games against the AFC West - all as an underdog. And no, the lines weren't much bigger then - in fact, until they recently played 16.5 point dogs in Denver, no line exceeded 10 points since 2010. Plus, they've won three in a row in Kansas City with the under going 2-0-1. Take the points and bet the UNDER 40.5.

Expert Team: 3-2 Raiders



Philadelphia Eagles (-1.5) over TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS: The Bucs are the sexy pick here - coming off a bye, desperate for a win, falling apart at the seams, and probably having defensive players only meetings to shake their heads in disgust about their anemic offense that has been averaging 11 points/game. The Bucs are so bad I forgot what division they're in. The Eagles, on the other hand, are in an equally horrible division, but the difference is they have a couple of wins and are tied for first place at 2-3. If Michael Vick plays, we still like this pick, but if Nick Foles plays we love it. Have I mentioned that he went to the same high school as Drew Brees and shattered the records once held by the Saints quarterback? With four of Philly's 5 games going over and their defense probably not changing too much since last week, we'll give up the points and take the OVER 46.

Expert Team: 4-1 Eagles

Green Bay Packers (-3) over BALTIMORE RAVENS: For a minute we had the Baltimore Ravens, citing their tremendous record as home dogs...until, of course, we looked up their record and found that they're 1-3 ATS in that role dating back to 2009 and 1-1 ATS last year. It doesn't happen often, and it when it does they seem to lose. Couple that with the fact that the Green Bay Packers are awesome (on offense) and you have a recipe for a high-scoring thriller at M & T Bank Stadium. And when it comes to those kinds of affairs with that kind of sponsorship, Aaron Rodgers will be depositing touchdowns and withdrawing a W. Give up the FG and count your money when the Packers win the shootout. 

Expert Team: 5-0 Packers

   
Put that in your savings account, B-word

CLEVELAND BROWNS (+2.5) over DETROIT LIONS: To fans and fantasy owners owners wondering if Calvin Johnson will be back for this game, we say confidently, "Doesn't matter." Whether he's healthy or not, make like Marco and pick up Alshon Jeffries off wavers because Cleveland's cornerback Joe Haden will frustrate Megatron or his replacement for four quarters while the Brandon Weeden does just enough to get the 3-2 Browns another home victory. How does 4-2 sound to the Dog Pound? Give up the points and take the UNDER 45.5.

Expert Team: 3-2 Browns

MINNESOTA VIKINGS (-2.5) over Carolina Panthers: Let's face it - the 243rd athlete to usurp the nickname Superman just plain isn't super anything except Super Unpredictable Super Stymied (by his OC), Super Indecisive, and Super Un-clutch. The Minnesota Vikings are coming off a bye and riding a one-game winning streak after their first international victory in franchise history (totally not fact checked) two weeks ago over the Pittsburgh Steelers. Minnesota has not fared well as a home favorite of 3 points or less recently because it hasn't been in that role since January of 2012. At home in any role, however, the Vikings are 6-2 in their last 8 games and 5-2-1 ATS. This is definitely a Viking cover and the UNDER 44.

Expert Team: 4-1 Vikings



HOUSTON TEXANS (-6.5) over St. Louis Rams: The Texans look nothing like the team that made it to the playoffs last season or a team that was expected to vie for a Super Bowl this year. Matt Schaub is on a short leash and perhaps no leash at all, considering he was replaced by T.J. Yates late in Houston's loss to San Francisco last week. Schaub has thrown a pick six in four consecutive games, a record I believe he owns all by himself now. The Rams are coming off a less than impressive home victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars. Honestly, we have no good reason to back the Texans who have failed to cover as favorites at home in 4 of their last 5 games, but the Rams haven't fared much better on the road losing 3 of 5 ATS. At this point in the season, we're rolling with a more consistent defense at home than the inconsistent offense both of these teams bring to the field on a weekly basis. Give up the points and take the UNDER which has hit in 4 of the Rams last 5 road games.

Expert Team: 3-2 Texans



NEW YORK JETS (-2.5) over Pittsburgh Steelers: This line jumped from +2.5 on the Jets to -2.5 after their impressive Monday Night Football win over the flailing Atlanta Falcons. No, the Jets aren't suddenly a good offensive team, Atlanta is just a terrible defensive squad. What the Jets are, however, is a talented defensive squad that can keep them in any game against any team. When that team is the Pittsburgh Steelers, a near doppelganger to the Jets, it's going to get ugly. Last year the Jets were terrible at home, losing their final four games ATS and 3 of 4 SU. This year, however, they're on a two game winning streak and worth backing against a floundering Steelers squad. This will be a grind out, low-scoring game, with the Jets somehow pulling out the home win.

Expert Team: 4-1 Jets

Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5) over BUFFALO BILLS: No EJ Manuel, no C.J. Spiller, nobody else with two initial first names and talent to replace them, no way we're backing the Bills. Is Cincy over-valued? Probably, but they're still way more valuable than Jeff Tuel. End of story. Take the Bengals, give up the TD+, and click the box that says Under. 

Expert Team: 4-1 Bengals


             No, it's Tool, just like it sounds.

Sunday Afternoon Football

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-13.5) over Tennessee Titans: Only 8 times in franchise history have the Seahawks been favored at home by more than 13 points. After winning the first three SU but losing ATS, they are a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS in these situations. As Jeff Grant likes to say, this is important to consider when placing your bet this Sunday. The Seahawks will be thrilled to be back in Seattle while the Titans will be thrilled when they get to leave. Seahawks and the UNDER.

Expert Team: 5-0 Seahawks


   Seattle's Fireman Ed 

Jacksonville Jaguars (-28) over DENVER BRONCOS: If you just went by point differential of these two teams - Jacksonville at -91 and Denver at +112 - then the line should be 40, but that's not how it works. As Peyon Manning managed to say with a straight face, "The Jaguars are a professional football team," which means on any given Sunday they could lose by less than four touchdowns. It's just too many points. If the Broncos are up big at the half, they'll rest all of their players and call upon retired members of the Denver Gold (USFL team between '83-'85) to finish the game for them. Like Jimmy the Weasel likes to say, "A quick early score and that line jumps to 35." Better yet, a super teaser with the OVER and you've got yourself a 41 points and 40 to get to. Sounds dreamy. Very few Take the four score...and seven years ago the Jags were a .500 team. Does that count as political humor?

Expert Team: 4-1 Jaguars



Arizona Cardinals (+11) over SAN FRANCISCO: This is just too many points. Arizona was historically bad last year and still managed to cover a few games. This year they have a new quarterback in Carson Palmer who has underachieved but their already stellar defense has led them to a 4-1 ATS record, 3-2 SU and a tie for second place in their division. No doubt San Francisco wins this game, but the Cardinal's third ranked rush defense will force Kaepernick to throw the ball, and when that happens, we like Arizona's chances of hanging around long enough to cover and meet the OVER.

Expert Team: 3-2 Cardinals

New Orleans (+2) over NEW ENGLAND: Does anyone else think Bill Belichick would make a great voice over guy as one of Charlie Brown's parents. Why does anyone even ask him questions anymore? Wouldn't it be awesome if he just surprised us all with complete and full disclosure about everything going on behind the scenes in Patriotville? "Oh Rob. Yeah, he's fine. He's more than a 100% and I thought you should all know that so you could pass it along to Sean Payton and Co., you know, so they can game plan for him. It's only fair. Next question." Gronk may or may not play, but he'll definitely be limited. Everyone knows about the Patriots ability to win at home, but what might be a better kept secret is New Orleans ability to win on the road against AFC teams, going 7-3 SU/ATS in their last 10 visits. Pretty solid. Plus, Rob Ryan's defense is what is going to keep this game UNDER and bring home the cover/win for New Orleans. 

Expert Team: 3-2 Saints


DALLAS COWBOYS (-5.5) over Washington Redskins: It's a classic - Cowboys vs Native Americans. This will be another shootout in Big D, another record-breaking performance for Tony Romo, but no INT at the end because RG3 will take care of that for him. Yes, Washington is coming off the bye, but no amount of rest will fix that defense - just ask the 2012 New Orleans Saints. It does concern us that Washington is 5-2 ATS as road dogs since the arrival of RG3 but it concerns us less that they're 0-1 ATS in that role since his reconstructive knee surgery. We'll lay the points and enjoy the shootout. 

Expert Team: 5-0 Cowboys

Monday Night Football

Indianapolis Colts (-1.5) over SAN DIEGO CHARGERS: The Chargers burned us in Week 1 as home dogs on a Monday Night against the Houston Texans. How this team got scheduled for National Television twice in the first six weeks is beyond me. The Colts are a better team, have the better quarterback, and the better running game now with Richardson in and Matthews gone for a while. We're laying the points and kicking back to watch Andrew Luck's Monday Night coming out party. This will be a highlight reel from kick-off to the two minute warning. Back the Colts and take the OVER. 

Expert Team: 4-1 Colts



Sorry for the rush job, everyone, but I gotta about eight hours of driving and three hours of screaming to do today. Plus I have to go to a baseball game.

May the Spread be With You All,

Vinny and Marco