NFL Picks Week 5: Broncos vs Cowboys Pick Plus 13 Other Games

NFL Picks Week 5: Broncos vs Cowboys Plus Thirteen Other Games

The Spread Zone proudly presents another riveting episode of Numbers Never Lie, But They Sure Do Skew the Truth Depending on Which Team You're Trying to Sell with your host - as always - Vinny the Geek. 

Thank you. Thank you all for that smattering of applause. It's great to be back here on N.N.L.B.T.S.D.S.T.T.D.O.W.T.Y.T.T.S. I can't tell you how many times I practiced that introduction, but suffice it to say the over/under on me getting through it without stuttering was 8.5 letters. And if you're wondering, just because it's spelled correctly doesn't mean I succeeded. Irregardless, however, I remain fearless in the face of using both multiple adverbs to begin a sentence and prepositions to end them...into.

Ahhh losing streaks. Aren't they great? I'm starting to feel like the Bad News Bears or the Jacksonville Jaguars or Jennifer Aniston post-Brad Pitt when nobody believed they we're good anymore, but there was still plenty of "rooting for" and pity flowing their way. If you need some hope, I'm pretty sure the Bad News Bears eventually won a game thanks to Tatum O'Niel (loved her), the Jags will eventually cover a spread (foreshadowing?), and Jennifer Aniston can count her blessings that she doesn't have to employ sixteen nannies to take care of the small village of children she "made-opted." I think Walter Matthau may have even quit drinking...in the dugout. 

This week Marco and I reverted to our old formula of writing down all of his gut picks, then seeking out research to either support or refute it. As is common when you're just going down a list of games and picking a winner, Marco started out with 11 favorites and 3 underdogs. As we dug through the database of Oddshark.com, we found some trends within and between teams that ranged from interesting and useful to meaningless and obsolete. Nonetheless, in the spirit of Numbers Never Lie But They Sure Do Skew The Truth Depending On Which Team You're Trying To Sell, we present to you our Week 5 NFL Picks Against the Spread for all fourteen games. 

*Notice I'm leaving out our stats to date because they really, really skew the truth. If you're on the fence about whether to read this and need a reason to move on, check out our record to date on the Experts Page. But while you're at it, Google Regression to the Mean - also known as Reversion to Mediocrity. 

Man, mediocrity at this point would be...AWESOME.

Buffalo Bills (+4, 42) over CLEVELAND BROWNS: Thursday Night Football - speaking of mediocre - is a match-up of two surprising AFC teams. The Brian Hoyer Bandwagon is filling up, and when Marco made his gut picks, we climbed right up there with our Dog Bone hats, our smell of false hope, and our confusing signs, gearing up for Thursday Night Football.

 

Then we remembered three things: 

1. It's still the Browns - they shouldn't be favored by four points over anyone. 

2. It's the Bills - they've been staying in games against everyone.

3. In the disaster known as Thursday Night Football points have been at a premium. 

Granted Buffalo is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as a road dog, but Cleveland hasn't fared much better 2-7-1 as a home favorite. This game is a wash and will likely be won on a field goal 20-17. Take the points and the UNDER.

Sunday, October 6

TENNESSEE TITANS (+2.5, 38.5) over Kansas City Chiefs: The Titans historically play the home dog well - riding a 7-3 ATS record over their last 10, including SU/ATS wins in both games last season. It doesn't matter a ton because of personnel changes and momentum, but the Chiefs are 4-6 SU and 3-7 ATS as a road favorite over the past decade, and although they won in that role earlier this year, it was against the Jacksonville Jaguars - and they only beat them by 26. The Chiefs are also 4-6 SU on the road dating back to the beginning of last year while the Titans are 6-4 SU at home during that same span, including their last four in a row. 


"Pie - I like apple, blackberry, and 3.14159..."

Marco's gut pick was the Titans. Without Jake Locker we wavered, then we remembered that Ryan Fitzpatrick earned the highest Wonderlic Score in the history of the NFL which means he can really fit a circle into a square and hopefully an oval into the arms of Stevie Johnson. In case you're wondering, according to the Wonderlic - both Marco and I would make excellent back-up quarterbacks, too - if it weren't for our size, speed, and age. Take the points, but look for Fitzpatrick's brain and arm strength to put up some points in a surprising OVER. 

MIAMI DOLPHINS (-3, 44)  over Baltimore Ravens: Once a sure bet to lose at home, the Miami Dolphins are 7-3 SU/6-3-1 ATS at Sun Life Stadium since hiring new coach Joe Philbin prior. Conversely, the Baltimore Ravens miss their home cooking, losing 6 of 10 on the road and going 3-6-1 ATS during the past 10 regular season games, including 4 SU/ATS losses in a row. And that was during their Super Bowl run!! Both teams are coming off of sloppy losses on the road, so neither team is particularly more valued than the other, which is why you see the standard field goal line for the home team. We'll give up those points and recommend the OVER. 

Jacksonville Jaguars (+11.5) over ST. LOUIS RAMS: When you were in grade school, did you ever play the game Would You Rather... where you try to come up with disgusting choices for your friends to choose between. "Would you rather have sex with your grandmother or eat a giant cauldron of loogies?" That's what picking this game is like. Too many points to back St. Louis and not enough alcohol in the world to back the Jags. 

Besides, the St. Louis Rams haven't been favored by 11+ points since 2004, and although these stats mean little to nothing with regards to their current team, they are 3-3 SU in their last 6 games as big favorites and have lost 5 of their last 6 ATS in that role. Sure Sam Bradford and Jared Cook were in toddlers then and the Rams were in Los Angeles (not really), but there you go. The Rams have not played well enough to earn this many points. More contemporary stats show the Rams have lost their last 6 games ATS as a home favorite and are 2-4 SU in that role. If you want a positive stat about Jacksonville, I'll give you one: The Jags are 1-0 ATS in their last game as road dogs of more than 13 points in the post-season when they lost SU to the New England Patriots in 2008. Nonetheless, we will keep rolling the dice with Jacksonville, knowing they will eventually cover an inflated line.

New England Patriots (+2) over CINCINNATI BENGALS: The Bengals are a .500 team SU and ATS when favored by a field goal or less at home, including 4 SU/ATS losses to Dallas, Miami, San Francisco, and Houston. Tough teams, no doubt, but have you ever heard of a little organization known as the New England Patriots?  Well, Brady, Belichick and Co. are a cool 6-4 SU/8-2 ATS in their last 10 road-dog by less than field goal situations, including 4 SU/ATS wins in a row. Looks like this is a no-brainer even without Amendola and Gronkowski. We'll roll with the Pats as a dog and a defensive battle leading to the UNDER. 

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (+3, 44) over Seattle Seahawks: Did Seattle prove something to us last week with a comeback overtime win over the Houston Texans? Absolutely - they proved yet again that Matt Schaub is not an elite quarterback. Andrew Luck, on the other hand, is definitely in the conversation. Luck is currently 4-0 SU and ATS in his career as a home dog with wins over Houston, Miami, Green Bay, and Minnesota. Plus the Colts are 8-2 SU/7-3 ATS in Luck's overall career in the cozy confines of Lucas Oil Stadium. The Seahawks, on the other hand, have won and covered three road games in a row dating back to last season, but overall are still a .500 team away from home. This will be the best offensive road team they've faced this year, and the 'Hawks have struggled to put up points without their super loud crowd, although the OVER has hit on four of five occasions. We're taking the Colts and recommending the OVER again. 

Detroit Lions (+6.5) over GREEN BAY PACKERS: A little bit of trivia for you: Although the Detroit Lions have lost three straight games at Lambeau, what was the average margin of defeat? Answer: 4 points. Other numbers don't support the Lions here with Green Bay going 8-2 SU/7-3 ATS coming out of a bye week including a four game SU/ATS streak, and the Lions at 0-10 SU/3-6-1 ATS in their last 10 games as road underdogs of 6+ points. This is a situation where we believe the stats and the 6.5 hook are baiting us to take the Packers. So, we're going with the improved running game and the momentum of the 3-1 Lions to keep this game close. 

New Orleans Saints (+1) over CHICAGO BEARS: Although the Bears are 7-3 SU at home over their last 10 games, they are 3-5-2 ATS including 0-1-1 ATS so far this year. Granted New Orleans is a different team away from the Superdome, struggling through an 11-9 SU/9-11 ATS record over the past two seasons, but this game is essentially a pick 'em and the Saints are 2-0 SU/ATS when the line is that small on the road since the beginning of 2011. Let's face it, the Saints look like they're a team on a mission and the Bears look like they're a team on a roller coaster. We'll take the predictability, the points, and the OVER. 

NEW YORK GIANTS (-3) over Philadelphia Eagles: Unfortunately, the Giants are playing terribly this season. Fortunately, so are the Eagles. Unfortunately, the Giants have been historically bad 4-6 SU/3-7 ATS in their last 10 division home games. Fortunately, they're currently on a 1 game SU/ATS winning streak and that victory came against the Eagles. Unfortunately, the Eagles are 7-3 SU/ATS in road division games. Fortunately, they're .500 ATS and 1-3 SU since the beginning of last year.

 

Unfortunately, we have to pick an ATS winner in this game, but fortunately we get prop bets to cover our butts when both Vick and Manning throw a pair of interceptions. Best/most specific stat I found was this: Giants are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games in Week 5. Eagles are 0-7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game (Denver rolled up 472 yards). Where do they get this stuff? Answer: Who cares? We're Rolle-ing with Dantrelle who still believes the Giants can go 12-4. We won't go that far, but we'll give up the field goal, take the OVER, start every player on both rosters in your fantasy leagues, and watch a shootout.  

Carolina Panthers (-2, 41.5) over ARIZONA CARDINALS: This was the hardest game of the week for us, so we just stayed put with our first reaction which was, "Why are the Cards getting points at home when they have a better record and a decent defense?" Felt like a trap, so we decided to give up the points and roll with Super(unimpressive)man, hoping he'll pretend the Cardinals are the Giants and go to town on them. The Cardinals are 6-4 ATS over the past three seasons as a home dog, including a SU win against Detroit in that roll in their only home game this season. To add fuel to the fire of those picking against Carolina, the Panthers have lost 3 of 4 dating back to last year as a road favorite. This doesn't look like a smart pick, but it feels like a brilliant one. Give up the deuce and watch a low-scoring UNDER in the desert.

OAKLAND RAIDERS (+5.5) over San Diego Chargers: I know, I know. Why do we keep going back to this well? If the Raiders are 3-1 ATS and a pretty crappy team, doesn't it stand to reason that they'll eventually lose more ATS than they win? Not necessarily. Last year the St. Louis Rams went 7-8-1 SU, but were a division winning and fake playoff contending 11-5 ATS along with the Seattle Seahawks. Very different teams, very similar ATS records. Although the Raiders have lost 6 of their last 7 dating back to last season, they are 5-2 ATS in those games.  Meanwhile, San Diego boasts a 2-3 SU/ATS record in their last 5 games as a road favorite, including an ATS loss at home to the Raiders last December. Believe it or not, players know when and by how much they're being smiled or frowned upon by the oddsmakers, and this early in the season it can play a role in the outcome. This game will go OVER late when the Raiders steal the backdoor cover.

Denver Broncos (-6, 56.5) over DALLAS COWBOYS: I just read an article by a gentleman who's choosing to back Dallas in this game, saying "The 'Boys are a completely different team at home," to which I say, "Different team? Yes, they'd have to be the Patriots, the Saints, or the Seahawks to cover this line." Maybe by different team he meant their 3-7 ATS record in their last 10 home games, or their 6-14 ATS record over the last 20? In order to find a home game in which the Cowboys were giving up this many points, you have to go back to December of 2000, so no recent stats are relevant at all. What is relevant is Peyton Manning. End of story. We're riding the Broncos and the OVERs until they buck us off next week when they're likely laying 90 against the Jacksonville Jaguars. 

Houston Texans(+7, 43) over SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS: The Houston Texans had a team meeting after they let a 20-3 lead disappear in last week's overtime loss to the visiting Seattle Seahawks. You might not think that team meetings mean anything, but the Texans are 5-0 ATS when a team meeting has been initiated by a non-offensive player after a home loss to an NFC West team that has a flying animal for a mascot. Coincidentally, they are also 5-0 ATS in situations that I completely fabricated for the sake of argument. I now use these kinds of stats when I'm arguing with my wife. They are very effective.

In all seriousness, the Texans have not played up to their potential this year. Prior to their blowout loss two weeks ago in Baltimore, however, they had won three of four road games as an underdog with the OVER hitting three times. The Niners, conversely, are 3-6 ATS in home games as favorites of 7+ in the Harbaugh Era. That's the truth, my friends. Check it out at Oddsshark. We're taking the Texans and the OVER.

Monday, October 7

New York Jets (+9, 44) over ATLANTA FALCONS Falcons: Last week we backed the Atlanta Falcons at home against the New England Patriots citing Matt Ryans 35-7 record in the Georgia Dome. We got burned. This week we believe they're going to win, but we believe 9 points is too many against a prideful Jets team. The numbers support that argument with the Falcons going 9-0 SU as home favorites of more 9+ since 2008, but only a paltry 3-5-1 ATS. No doubt this is a must win for the Falcons, but the same was said of last week's game. The Jets, on the other hand, are playing with house money at 2-2, and are 4-2 ATS as big road dogs since Rex Ryans arrival in New York. Take the points on a Monday Night Prime Time game and watch the Falcons squeak out an UNDER 17-13. 

Before you disregard everything I've written here, please remember that Marco and I are hitting at a 67% clip when the ratio of numbers to letters in our posts are exceed .53472. Count 'em up.

What??? Where do they get this stuff????

Good luck, everyone.

Vinny and Marco