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Sunday, October 27, 2013

NFL Picks Week 8: Niners Jaguars ATS Pick, Predictions, Etc.


The 49ers are 14.5 point favorites against the struggling Jacksonville Jaguars in the second game of the 2013 International Series.

By: MaChez, TSZ Expert

Unfortunately for all you readers, Rodger Goodell, with his logistically impossible dream to start an NFL franchise in London, is preventing you from hearing about other more intriguing early matchups like Dallas at Detroit, Miami at New England, and New York at Philly.  Yes, that’s right, with the return of the oh so exciting international series, we’re obliged to cover the 49ers “at” Jaguars game in an attempt to lure in more viewership from across the pond.  Fortunately for you guys, it’s Sunday morning which means there’s a pretty good chance you’re seeing this after the game started and don’t even need to waste your time reading.

The Spread
San Francisco is currently favored by 14.5 points after the line opened at -16.5 earlier in the week.  The total, which has hit the last two games in London, is sitting at 40.5.

Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars are absolutely terrible this year.  They’re part of a group of Florida teams that has lost a combined 18 straight and there isn’t any one in the States that wants to watch them.  Fortunately for you Brits, you’ll get to see them every year for the next four years! And, if you’re lucky, Jags owner Shahid Khan, just might move them over there to become the Fulham Felines.  Don’t worry though, when you go 0-16 this season and Goodell rigs to draft to give two #1 overall picks, Teddy Bridgewater and JaDaveon Clowney will be the faces of your franchises so things might not be so bad.


This year, though, we’re all stuck watching quite possibly the biggest joke of a team ever assembled.  To be honest, I haven’t even watched a down of Jaguars football this year, and have no plan to.  They’re losing by double digits every week and that says enough about the quality of their play.  The Felines’ only claim of success this year is when they covered the biggest spread in NFL history against the Broncos.  Whoop-de-doo.  With new coach Gus Bradley most recently heading up the vaunted 2012 Seattle Seahawks defense you would think the Jaguars could manage to scrap together one victory, but it probably won’t be this week.

San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers are on the complete opposite end of the spectrum.  Easily one of the top, most complete teams in the NFL, the 49ers have been winning big as of late.  After losing to the Seahawks and Colts in two straight weeks, the 49ers have won four straight games while scoring over 30 and allowing 20 or less in each.  The four straight wins and drop in points allowed coincidentally have come since star OLB Aldon Smith admitted himself to alcohol rehab which only begs the question: was he playing drunk the first three games?


San Francisco is playing classic football and playing it well.  Their amazingly talented offensive line has protected QB Colin Kaepernick and allowed for one of the top run games in the league.  It should only get better this week when they play the worst run defense in the league.  Although Kaepernick isn’t lighting up stat sheets, he’s doing what he has to to win games.  On defense (not that it matters too much this week) the 49ers are stacked with a great front seven and secondary that makes things difficult on opposing quarterbacks.

Prediction
As you can see there’s not much good to be said about the Jags and much good to be said about the 49ers.  However, one often ignored knock on the 49ers recent success is that their four wins have come against four offensively challenged teams that they should have beat.  The Jaguars, on the other hand, scored a total of 20 points against the two teams the 49ers lost to (while the 49ers only scored 10) and put up 19 against the Broncos when the spotlight was on them.


I know I’m reaching and my article would suggest otherwise, but I see the Jaguars and new starter Chad Henne rising to the occasion…to cover the spread.  It’s a departure from my pick earlier this week, but I just see the 49ers, Kaepernick, and his swag finally getting too complacent, while the Jags are desperate to make a ‘good impression’ on their future fans.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (+14.5) vs. San Francisco 49ers

OVER 40.5 (probably the safer bet: interconference matchup, London game, etc.)

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